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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Tree damage likely in areas which got the heaviest icing once the winds pick up as this is the first high wind warming in years right after an ice storm.
  2. bluewave
    The Tremont Micronet just made it to 40°. But these warm fronts pushing up against snow pack can struggle to cross the Sound. It’s always easier for warm front to come in aloft and change the snow to an icy mix and then just plain rain.
  3. bluewave
    15° jump in one hour when the warm front came through Montauk. Feb 16, 2:54 pm 57 53 87 SSW 24G43 Feb 16, 1:54 pm 42 39 89 37 NE 8
  4. bluewave
    52° at JFK with southerly flow gusting to 36 mph. Feb 16, 2:05 pm 52 48 87 S 29G36
  5. bluewave
    Warm front has made it through JFK with 50° and strong SSW flow. Feb 16, 1:40 pm 50 48 94 SSW 18G26
  6. bluewave
    The wind just shifted to SE at JFK and they are up to 47°.
  7. bluewave
    Looks like the December under 4” La Niña snowfall pattern is working out again at spots like Newark. The only year in the last 30 years that missed was 16-17. It’s been a pretty reliable early indicator back to the 1990s on whether it would be a below or above average snowfall season. La Niña snowfall and storm tracks usually get established early in the season. But this isn’t the case for El Niños. Newark December La Niña snowfall and seasonal totals 24-25….3.5”…..13.4” so far 22-23….0.1”…….2.7” 21-22…..0.1”……17.9” 20-21….11.9”…..45.7” 17-18…..7.7”…….39.7” 16-17…..3.4”……30.0” 11-12…..0.0……..8.8” 10-11…..24.5”….68.2” 08-09….8.3”…..27.0” 07-08…..3.9”…..14.6” 05-06…..11.0”…..37.9” 00-01……14.9”….39.3” 99-00……T………18.4” 98-99…..1.2”…….12.8” 95-96…12.8”……78.7”
  8. bluewave
    The snow piles from the Long Beach dept of sanitation road crews were like mountains that winter in the empty block next to the boardwalk that used to be the old amusement park.
  9. bluewave
    I had around .25 of ice with the freezing rain on 2-2-11 back in Long Beach. Before that picked up around .3 to .4 of ZR on 2-14-07. That was one of the more unusual events I ever saw in Long Beach. The freezing rain was mostly along and south of Sunrise Highway. So the first ice storm mostly limited to the immediate South Shore. Then 1994 was in a class by itself with over .75 to 1.00 of ice. The Jan 1978 event was just as bad especially from around Merrick Road and north and not too bad in Long Beach.
  10. bluewave
    We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning.
  11. bluewave
    Yeah, I have noticed that these warm fronts can slow their northward progress to the north of NYC when there is snowcover on the ground. It’s usually models like the HRRR that do best once we get within the shorter term range. Maybe someday they will boost the Euro to 4km or lower and make it more competitive.
  12. bluewave
    Anything within a few degrees is pretty close in my book since I don’t expect perfection from these models. The general rule of thumb is that warm fronts usually have no problem making it through CNJ. Then they usually hang up somewhere between I-78 and I-80. Long Island usually makes it above 50° but sometimes Central Park can hover in the mid 40s. Usually have to get far enough north closer to your area in order to struggle to get above freezing.
  13. bluewave
    Par for the course with these set ups as the northern boundary fights to hang on. Looks like mid 40s for the Bronx and 50s on Long Island with the 60s in Central NJ. JFK is already up to 39°.
  14. bluewave
    The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this.
  15. bluewave
    The HRRR that I posted is spot on for the current temps. So the forecast looks good. It usually dose best in these set ups.
  16. bluewave
    Even the Bronx will make it into the 40s later.Then the salt crews will probably be out in force for areas with residual standing water later. This has been the story all winter.
  17. bluewave
    I am already above freezing here on the CT Shoreline with just plain rain. So this shows how hard it is these days to get a legit ice storm near the coast. We haven’t had one here since 2011, 2007, and especially 1994.
  18. bluewave
    Impressive blowout tides for the back bays in spots like Barnegat Bay with the very strong offshore flow.
  19. bluewave
    Very 2021 February temperature departure pattern coming up with the strongest cold staying to our west this week.
  20. bluewave
    When there is a very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet we often don’t get enough spacing between shortwaves so the one behind acts as the kicker and the Southeast Ridge doesn’t amplify enough. Then when we do get enough spacing between storms like today and heights rise enough over the Rockies, we get a sub 970 cutter and overamped Southeast Ridge today into tomorrow. The in between systems that have hugged the coast pumped the Southeast Ridge just enough to mix and change to rain but not enough to cut. So the dynamic between the fast Pacific Jet and warmer waters off the East Coast has been favoring cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream systems. It’s no coincidence that the last true BM 10”+ event in NYC was in 20-21 and on Long Island In 22. So it shows how little margin of error we have to work with in order to get a perfect benchmark track in this regime. Hopefully, we can eventually get one storm that can defy the odds.
  21. bluewave
    The kicker trough out West was a little stronger this run so everything shifted east from 0z. Need to weaken that feature in future runs for a stronger Rockies Ridge and Southeast Ridge. But the Pacific has been acting as the spoiler in recent years. So it will be something to watch over the next few days. New run Old run
  22. bluewave
    It’s been a mixed story this winter. On one hand we had the extreme Southeast Ridge suppression back in January. But this month so far with all the events except the one that produced the significant snow near DC the gradient has been shifting further north. This weekend the AIFS forecast originally had the low sliding to our south but it turned into a big cutter. The other common denominator has been that the models have been underestimating the strength of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So we have been getting the consistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This is going to be the first test case for an East Coast low this winter so far. So we don’t have much of a sample size of events to draw on for individual model performance. You can look at the upper low on the GFS coming into the West acting as a kicker low. But this feature is weaker on the CMC and Euro. That piece of energy could be a big key to the forecast. I am not sure it’s currently getting sampled very well since it still back over the Pacific. We could probably use a special NOAA flight this weekend since the Pacific has been consistently acting as the spoiler for us. I would really like to see this pattern relax at least once this winter to finally allow something approximating a benchmark track to return after being absent for years.
  23. bluewave
    With a little luck the stronger Rockies Ridge, Southeast Ridge, and sharper trough on the Euro and Canadian verifies so this can get pulled in closer to the coast by the bowling ball upper low.
  24. bluewave
    While there are some differences in the sensible weather so far, this La Niña February is more along the lines of the February 2021 La Niña. That one featured a record Arctic outbreak down the Plains. But this one won’t be quite as intense. There was also a -5 -AO block that month. Plus we are on track for February being our snowiest month of the winter.
  25. bluewave
    The changes in the wavelengths has made the correlation less over time.
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