bluewave

Unusually cold weather near the Beaufort region for a change with the strong TPV. This is actually the coldest departures around that region over the last year. My guess is that this impressive June TPV behavior will keep the 2012 record out of reach again for this season. From the Alaska Weather Blog: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2018/06/chilling-in-summer.html Northern and interior Alaska has seen some very chilly weather for the time of year in the past few days, as a strong upper-level trough and an unseasonably cold air mass plunged south out of the Arctic at the beginning of the week. Despite the fact that the summer solstice is now less than 10 days away, and daylight is continuous, sub-freezing temperatures have occurred in many of the usual cold spots in the interior. The airport has seen 37°F, 36°F, and 37°F in the early mornings of the past three days, which is a remarkably cold series of daily minimum temperatures for this time of year. In fact, this is the closest to the solstice that Fairbanks has ever observed 3 straight days with low temperatures of 37°F or lower at the official climate site (1930-present). It's also interesting to note that with a high temperature of only 53°F, Monday's daily mean temperature was a mere 45°F. It's been almost 70 years (1949) since Fairbanks saw such a chilly day this late in June (or in July).

Coldest start to June over the CAB since 2014. More active June TPV pattern beginning in 2013 continues. This is in stark contrast to the extreme June dipole pattern of 2007-2012. Intense sub 970 mb Kara low this week was near record levels for early June. The TPV that produced this storm just split with a piece spinning toward the Beaufort. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fpreview&mode=animator&set=14-km EPS Global&area=Northern Hemisphere&param=500 hPa Height Anom&offset=4

Updated for May 2018. 5...2018...EWR...6....NYC...6...LGA....2....JFK...5....BDR...4.....ISP....4

This less hostile summer pattern could be a result of the weaker Atlantic overturning and +PDO since 2013. Pretty much the opposite of the raging 2007-2012 JJA dipole pattern. https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper235210.html The circulation pattern appears to be further modulated in high latitudes by residual sea ice coverage around the Canadian Archipelago and by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Only the 2nd time all year that the CA has colder than normal temperatures. As in recent years, the weather pattern is becoming less hostile near the start of June. http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

Right now we are getting an impressive May temperature spike in the Arctic. But we have seen in recent years how hostile May conditions reversed just in time for June. Any summer than can follow up on these record warm October to May patterns will be a contender to beat 2012. It's just very difficult to predict when the next big dipole summer will occur. From Twitter: Arctic temperatures have shot up in recent days, and are likely the warmest on record for this time of year. These temp spikes used to be rare and are now happening much more frequently. Details: wapo.st/2jDkoqV image via @ZLabepic.twitter.com/hmEUTTqkgm 12:31 PM - 7 May 2018

It really comes down to the methodology that you choose. Looks like NWS at Upton is using dense rank while some other sites use rank. The difference between the RANK and DENSE_RANK functions is in how values are assigned to rows following a tie. In case of tie of two records for the first position, the third record that follows to the tie in order will be considered third position if you use RANK, while the third record that follows the tie is considered second position if you choose DENSE_RANK.

No problem. I was using amount ranks like the NWS Upton site. I have seen the ranks compiled both ways. https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical

The 09-10 winter started off this record number of top 10 snowiest months during the 2010's. It's the first time that all our major observing sites experienced so many top 10 months in such a short period of time. Islip alone has recorded 5 new #1 snowiest months this decade along with 4 months reaching 30 inches of snow. This April added to monthly top 10 amounts for every month since October in the 2010's. The top snowiest months for our local sites during the 2010's EWR Oct 2011...#1...5.2 Nov 2012...#2...6.6 2018...#3...6.4 Dec 2010...#2...24.5 2009...#9...13.3 Jan 2011...#1...37.4 2016....#4...25.7 2014...#7...20.8 Feb 2010...#2...32.9 2021...#3...30.6 2014...#4...30.3 Mar 2015...#6...16.3 2018...#8...13.2 Apr 2018...#3...5.0 May 2020...T NYC Oct 2011...#1...2.9 Nov 2012...#6...4.7 2018...#4...6.4 Dec... 2010...#6...20.1 Jan 2011...#1...36.0 2016...#2...27.9 2014...#10...19.7 Feb 2010...#1...36.9 2014...#2....29.0 2021...#8....26.0 Mar 2015....#7...18.6 Apr 2018...#8...5.5 May 2020...T LGA Oct 2011...#1...1.7 Nov 2012...#9...1.1 2018...#2...4.7 Dec 2010...#8...14.0 Jan 2011...#1...32.6 2016...#2...28.2 2022…#4…20.4 2015...#5...19.7 2014...#8...16.7 Feb 2010....#1....29.1 2014...#2....27.2 2021...#7....23.2 Mar 2015....#4...17.3 2018....#9...11.6 Apr 2018....#4...5.5 May 2020...T JFK Oct 2011...#1...1.5 Nov 2012...#1...4.3 2018...#1...4.8 Dec 2009....#4....16.2 2010...#5...15.8 Jan 2016...#1...31.3 2011...#3...22.1 2022…#5…17.5 2015...#6...17.1 2014...#7...17.0 Feb 2010...#2....29.6 2021...#3....26.4 2014...#8....21.0 Mar 2015...#3...13.1 2018...#4...12.8 Apr 2018...#4...3.7 May 2020...T BDR Oct 2011...#1...4.0 Nov 2012...#1...8.4 Dec 2009...#7...13.4 2010...#8...12.0 Jan 2011....#1...42.0 2022…#5…20.8 2015...#6...18.7 Feb 2014...#2...32.1 2021....#3...30.7 2013...#4...30.4 2015...#8...21.5 2010..#10..16.9 Mar 2015...#3...18.6 2018...#6...14.5 2019...#7...13.5 2013...#8...13.0 2017...#10...11.1 Apr 2018...#2....6.0 May 2020...T ISP Oct 2011...#1...0.3 Nov 2012...#3...4.2 2018...#2...4.3 Dec 2009...#1...25.3 2010...#2...14.9 Jan 2011...#1...34.4 2022…#2…31.8 2015...#2...30.2 2014...#4....25.2 2016...#5...24.8 2018...#7...22.0 Feb 2013...#1...31.4 2021...#5...24.9 2014...#6...24.5 2010...#7...21.7 Mar 2018...#1...31.9 2015...#3...19.7 Apr 2018...#3...4.6 May 2020...T

Updated top ten rankings for February with a new #1 at NYC and ISP. EWR...2....NYC...1...LGA....2....JFK...3....BDR...3.....ISP....1

Yeah, it was a long duration overrunning event. Great combination of El Nino STJ and -EPO generated very strong Arctic high to our north.

With the 6 to just under 10 inch storms in NYC since 2000, there was an increase to 5-6 +NAO storms. 9.8...1-27-15...+0.235 9.4...2-10-17...+0.290 9.1...1-12-11....-1.909 8.3...3-2-09...+0.502 8.0...2-4-14...+0.246 7.7...3-1-05...-1.379 7.6...3-15-17...-0.164...note...the NAO was only briefly negative and mostly positive before the storm...This allowed the record snowfall for the interior but not the coast 7.5...3-6-15...+0.619 6.3...1-7-17...-0.774 6.0...2-23-08...-0.422 6.0...2-25-05...-1.379 6.0...12-6-02...-1.385 6.0...1-22-01...-0.438

While it's still mostly -NAO, the storms that just missed the top ten since 2000 in NYC included 3 +NAO events. These were the 10-14 inch snowfalls. 14.0...12-6-03...-0.197 13.8...1-23-05...+0.204 13.3..1-26-11...-9.444 12.5...2-14-14...+0.680 12.0...12-31-00...-1.227 11.5...1-22-14...-0.529 11.4...2-9-13...+0.219 10.9...12-20-09...-2.111 10.3...1-28-04...-1.449 10.0...2-11-10..-1.202

That April 2003 snowstorm happened just a few days after a brief -NAO drop.

Yeah, we have had top 10 storms near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique since it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block.

Yeah, PHL was similar to the NYC Metro and LI stations. The only top 10 snowstorm without a -NAO since 1950 was PD2. PHL 31.0...1-8-96.....-1.719 28.5...2-6-10......-0.985 23.2..12-20-09...-2.111 22.4...1-24-16....-0.890 21.3...2-12-83....-0.690 18.7...2-17-03...+0.654 15.8...2-12-06...-0.537 15.1..1-27-11...-0.944 14.6..12-12-60..-0.078 14.3...2-19-79...-0.633

I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii NYC 27.5...1-24-16....-0.890 26.9...2-12-06....-0.537 20.9...2-26-10....-1.299 20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719 20.0...12-27-10...-1.533 19.8...2-17-03...+0.654 19.0...1-27-11....-0.944 17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865 17.6...2-12-83...-0.690 17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126 EWR 27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719 24.3...1-23-16....-0.890 24.2...12-27-10..-1.533 22.6...2-4-61......-0.126 22.3...2-17-03....+0.654 21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537 20.4...12-12-60...-0.078 19.0...2-7-78......-0.865 18.9...1-27-11...-0.944 18.2...3-19-56...-0.225 JFK 30.5...1-24-16...-0.890 25.8...2-17-03...+0.654 24.1...2-4-61....-0.126 21.7...2-12-83...-0.690 20.7...1-8-96....-1.719 20.2...2-10-69...-0.678 18.1...2-5-61....-0.126 16.7...2-12-06...-0.537 15.6...12-27-10...-1.533 14.5...12-20-09...-2.111 LGA 28.2...1-24-16...-0.890 25.4...2-12-06...-0.537 23.8...1-8-96...-1.719 22.0...2-12-83...-0.690 19.0...2-5-61...-0.126 17.3...1-27-11...-0.944 16.5...2-17-03..+0.654 16.1...2-10-69...-0.678 15.3...3-4-60....-1.095 14.9...12-20-95..-1.581 ISP 27.8...2-9-13....+0.219 25.9...2-7-78....-0.865 24.9...1-27-15...+0.235 23.9...12-20-09...-2.111 23.7...1-24-16...-0.890 20.1...2-12-83...-0.690 19.9...2-12-06...-0.537 17.8..1-20-78...+0.234 17.0...1-8-96...-1.719 17.0...2-10-69...-0.678

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The November 1st run of the Euro monthly looks like it was the first get the right idea about December.

The ridging out west has been ridiculous in recent years. There is a few new papers out on the topic. But most of them are behind a paywall. Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD026575/full http://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1498/Scientists-link-California-droughts-and-floods-to-distinctive-atmospheric-waves The crippling wintertime droughts that struck California from 2013 to 2015, as well as this year's unusually wet California winter, appear to be associated with the same phenomenon: a distinctive wave pattern that emerges in the upper atmosphere and circles the globe. Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found in a recent study that the persistent high-pressure ridge off the west coast of North America that blocked storms from coming onshore during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was associated with the wave pattern, which they call wavenumber-5. Follow-up work showed that wavenumber-5 emerged again this winter but with its high- and low-pressure features in a different position, allowing drenching storms from the Pacific to make landfall. "This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur," said NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, lead author of the California paper. "As we learn more, this may eventually open a new window to long-term predictability." The finding is part of an emerging body of research into the wave pattern that holds the promise of better understanding seasonal weather patterns in California and elsewhere. Another new paper, led by NCAR scientist Grant Branstator, examines the powerful wave pattern in more depth, analyzing the physical processes that help lead to its formation as well as its seasonal variations and how it varies in strength and location. The California study was published in the Journal of Climate while the comprehensive study into the wave patterns is appearing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Both papers were funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor, as well as by the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA.

Denver-DIA hit 81° today which is 34° above the normal high of 47°. This difference between the actual high & the normal high was the second largest ever recorded for Denver. The only larger difference occurred on Dec 5, 1939 when Denver was 35° above normal. #cowx 2:07 PM - 27 Nov 2017

Camarillo Airport has officially broken the ALL TIME record HI temperature for the month of November. This is very late in the month to reach 99 degrees. The old record was 98 degrees set 3 times no later than Nov 5th. The high today could still climb higher. #cawx #LAheat #Socal pic.twitter.com/TuF2zeKuVl

Aerosmith played there in 1980. After Speaks closed down, none of the other clubs in that spot were as good. http://stubstory.com/aerosmith-on-long-island-1980/

Looks you will have a much warmer turkey day than our area. Not sure if this happens that much.

I have seen Joan Jett several times around town in Long Beach. She filmed a video a while back on Franklin and the boardwalk.