bluewave

October 5th is the earliest this decade that NYC reached 45 degrees or colder. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-23 (2011) 10-08 (2012) 150 Mean 05-07 10-18 164 Maximum 05-25 (2013) 10-27 (2011) 186 2012 04-30 (2012) 43 10-08 (2012) 44 160 2016 05-16 (2016) 43 10-15 (2016) 45 151 2015 04-25 (2015) 38 10-17 (2015) 42 174 2017 05-13 (2017) 45 10-17 (2017) 42 156 2018 04-30 (2018) 44 10-18 (2018) 42 170 2014 04-30 (2014) 41 10-19 (2014) 44 171 2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-23 (2010) 44 162 2013 05-25 (2013) 45 10-23 (2013) 45 150 2011 04-23 (2011) 43 10-27 (2011) 38 186 2019 05-15 (2019) 44 - - -

The IOD and SOI are currently in a mode that we usually see with a more robust El Niño pattern. So maybe the SST’s become more Niño-like back toward Niño 3.4 and 4. The current split has cold near South America and warm west. Right now the 500 mb pattern is a blend of Niño and Niña features.

Unusual combinations of Pacific SST departures and atmospheric indices have become the new normal. As has been the case in recent years, how they interact together will determine our weather.

That was the driest late July into mid-September on record for JFK. Only .36 of rain. I can still remember many of the local ponds drying up. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 29 to Sep 16 Missing Count 1 1995-09-16 0.36 0 2 1972-09-16 1.14 0 3 1985-09-16 2.17 0 4 2005-09-16 2.36 0 5 1973-09-16 2.53 0

It was the latest 95 degree day at JFK by 3 weeks. The heat was so extreme for this late in the season, that JFK beat the previous highest October record of 90 in 2007 by a full 5 degrees.

Our first 40 degree temperature drop in 24 hours during October. The high of 96 between hours makes it an even 40 degrees. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=oct&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png

All the winters this decade have presented new combinations of competing extremes. The timing of the general pattern progressions have sometimes been correctly forecast in advance. But the nature and magnitude of the extremes have often been a surprise.

Portions of the Southeast upgraded to extreme drought today.

The IOD is just 1 piece of the puzzle going forward this year. How will the IOD interact with the ENSO? + IOD events usually occur with with El Niño’s. We currently also have a more Nino-like -SOI. There is a very strong +PMM and +NPM. While ENSO is currently neutral, some warming has been occurring in recent weeks. What if any influence will it have in the MJO? What about the stratosphere and phase of the NAO?

Looks like we have the strongest +IOD since the 97-98 super El Niño. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ The very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event persists, characterised by cooler waters to the northwest of Australia and warmer waters further west. Values of the IOD index over the past fortnight have strengthened, and the latest value of +1.76 °C is the strongest positive weekly value since at least 2001.

Amazing to have the warmest October average temperature, monthly maximum temperature, and highest minimum temperature only 2 years apart. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 63.8 0 2 2007 63.5 0 3 1971 63.1 0 4 1990 62.4 0 5 1984 62.2 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 96 29 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 73 0 2 1959 71 0 3 2018 70 0 - 2005 70 0 - 1990 70 0 - 1986 70 0 - 1954 70 0

Updated for the new all-time October record high temperatures across the region.

20 stations in the East US broke or tied their all-time record high October temperature today.

All the more extreme when you consider that the previous latest 95 of the season at JFK was on 9-11-83. First/Last Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1983 06-13 (1983) 95 09-11 (1983) 96 89 2010 06-24 (2010) 97 08-31 (2010) 97 67 1973 08-28 (1973) 98 08-30 (1973) 95 1 1948 - - 08-29 (1948) 96 - 1969 05-29 (1969) 99 08-25 (1969) 97 87

Just had some very strong 30-40 mph gusts ahead of the storms here in SW Suffolk. The dried leaves were blowing all over the place. Only a few drops of rain as the bulk of the rain missed to my east.

New all-time October high temperature record of 94 at Newark. Less than 2 years after the February all-time record high of 80 in 2018.

You were one of the few cooler spots. Even the more rural HPN finished at +2.6 like EWR.

16 all-time October record high temperatures broken or tied today.

Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1963 87 0 2 1951 86 0 - 1950 86 0 - 1949 86 0

New all time record October high temperature in Cincinnati today.

Updated for the 8th warmest September at LGA. 9...2019....LGA...8

Great research and forecast from Elsner back in 2008.

2010 EWR....Apr...Max...#4...92...May....Max...#5...95...Jun...#5...98...Min...#1...80...Jul...Max...#4...103...Min..#3...Aug...Min...#4...79...Sep...Min..#4...76 NYC...Apr...Max...#2...92..Jul...Max....#3....103....Min....#4....81...Sep....Max....#5...96....Min....#2...78 LGA...May...Max...#4...94...Jun...Min....#5....78...Jul...Max...#3....103...Min...#3...84...Aug...Min...#4...81...Sep...Min...#1...81 JFK... BDR... ISP... 2011 EWR...Feb...Max...#5...71....May...Min...#5...71....Jun...Max....#1...102....Jul...Max...#1...108..Min...#1....86 NYC....Jul...Max...#2...104...Min...#1...84 LGA...Jun...Max...#5...97...Jul...Max...#2....104...Min...#2...85...Dec...Min...#4....55 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2012 EWR...Jun...Max...#4...99...Min...#2...79...Jul...Max...103...#4 NYC...Jun...Min...#2...79 LGA...Feb...Min...#3...50...Mar..Min...#4...56..Apr...Min...#5...65...Jun...Max...#4...98...Min...#3...80 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2013 EWR...May...Min...#4...72...Jul...Min...#3...82...Sep..Min...#5...75....Oct...Max....#5...89...Dec...Max...#4...71....Min...#3...57 NYC...May...Min...#2...75...Jul...Min...#2...83...Sep...Max...5....96...Min....#3...77....Dec...Max...#3...71...Min...#2...61 LGA...May...Max...#5...93...Min...#4...76...Jul...Max...#5...100...Min...#1....86...Sep...Max...#4...94...Min...#5...77....Dec...Max...#5...69 JFK... BDR ISP 2014 EWR...Sep...Min...#5...75...Oct....Min....#4...69 NYC...Sep...Min...#3...77 LGA...Sep...Max...#5...93...Min...#3...79 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2015 EWR...Jul...Min...#5...80....Sep...Max...#4...98...Min...#5...75....Nov....Min....#3....64....Dec...Max...#4...71...Min...#1...59 NYC...Jul...Min...#3...82...Sep...Max...#4...97....Min...#4...76...Nov...Min....#2...66...Dec...Max...#2...72...Min...#1...63 LGA...Jul...Min...#4...83...Sep...Max...#5...95...Nov...Min...#2...65...Dec...Max...#2...72...Min...#1...59 JFK... BDR... ISP... 2016 EWR...Mar..Max...#5...82...Min...#4...59...May...Max...#4...96....Min....#5...71....Jul...Min...#5...80...Aug...Min...#3...80...Sep...Min...#2....78 NYC...Mar...Min...#2...63...Jul...Min...#5...80...Aug...Min...#4....81...Sep...Min...#5...75 LGA....Mar...Max...#5...78...Min...#1...62...Jul...Min...#5...82...Aug...Min...#2...84...,Sep...Max...#5....93....Min...#5...77 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2017 EWR...Feb...Max...#3...74...Min..#2...53..Apr...Min...#5...65...May....Min...#2....74....Jun...Max...#4...99...Min...#4...77...Oct...Min...#1...73 NYC....Jan...Max...#5...66....Feb...Min...#1....58...May...Min...#2...75...Jun...Min...#4...77...Oct...Min...#2...72 LGA....Jan...Max...#2...68...Feb...Max...#4...70...Min...#2...53...Max...#4...88...Min...#5...65...May...Max...#1...97...May....Min...#1...80...Jun...Max...#1.....101..Min...#3...80...Oct...Min...#3...71 JFK.... BDR... ISP... 2018 EWR...Feb...Max...#1...80...Min...#1...56...Aug...Min...#5...78...Sep...Max...#4...98...Min...#2...78...Oct...Min...#3...70...Nov...Min...#2...65 NYC....Feb...Max...#1...78....Min...#2...55....Sep...Min...#3...77....Oct....Min...#3...71 LGA...Feb...Max...#1...79....Min...#3...50...May...Max...#5...93....Min...#5...71...Aug...Min...#2...84...Sep...Min...#2...80...Oct...Min..#3...71...Nov...Min...#4...63 JFK... BDR... ISP.... 2019 EWR..Jul...Min...#5....80...Oct...Max...#1...96 NYC...Jul...Min...#3....82...Oct...Max...#2...93 LGA....Jul...Max...#5...100...Min...#4....83...Oct...Max...#1...95 JFK....Jul...Min...#3...80...Oct...Max...#1...95 BDR...Jul...Max...#3...99....Min...#3...77...Oct....Max....#2...87 ISP.....Apr...Min...#5....56....Jul...Max...#5....99...Min...#2...79....Oct...Max....#1...89 2020 EWR...Jan...Max...#3....70....Min...#5....48 NYC....Jan...Max...#3....69 LGA....Jan...Max....#3....67 JFK....Jan....Max...#3....Min....#4....47 BDR...Jan....Max...#1...69 ISP....Jan....Max...#2....68....Min....#3....50

Notice the much greater amplitude of the Arctic pressure pattern swings since 1990. This would seem to match the 2009 corals study.The record summer Arctic dipole pattern from 2007 to 2012 and new lowest extent. Rapid reversal in 2013 and 2014. Then stronger dipole anomalies in 2016 and 2019. Continuation of the long term Arctic sea ice decline with very choppy volatility from year to year. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales,” said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. “It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future.” “As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

A new satellite era record for so far east in the Atlantic.