bluewave

NSIDC put out a tweet about the new record departure.

The jet streak that digs the next big trough out West will be very impressive also. It maxes out around 6 SD in Alaska.

Similar pattern to what we have been experiencing all year. Coldest departures stay out West.Then the cold modifies as it moves east.

The GFS has really been struggling with its cold bias recently. New run Old run

It sure is.

October is on track track for 10 out of 10 above normal temperature departure months for the 2010s. Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...+2.5...+1.8...+1.7...so far 2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7 2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4 2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1 2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3 2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2 2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8 2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9 2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2 2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

Oct 2013 .36 and Mar 2012 .96 were the other 2 months for NYC.

We are back to the default wet pattern after the 2nd driest month of the 2010’s. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Mean 3.60 3.92 4.46 3.89 4.82 4.35 4.67 5.11 3.68 3.94 3.48 4.47 49.59 Max 5.23 2015 6.69 2010 10.69 2010 7.85 2014 8.00 2013 10.10 2013 7.45 2018 18.95 2011 9.39 2011 6.09 2011 7.62 2018 6.51 2018 72.81 2011 Min 2.08 2010 1.37 2012 0.96 2012 1.31 2013 1.86 2015 2.20 2010 2.60 2010 1.97 2016 0.95 2019 0.36 2013 1.58 2017 2.21 2017 38.5 2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37 2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81 2012 3.23 1.37 0.96 3.56 5.38 2.97 4.21 2.91 4.39 2.92 1.81 4.80 38.51 2013 2.76 4.25 2.90 1.31 8.00 10.10 2.84 2.85 2.95 0.36 3.15 4.85 46.32 2014 2.79 5.48 3.67 7.85 4.37 4.26 5.59 2.25 1.21 5.77 4.51 6.04 53.79 2015 5.23 2.04 4.72 2.08 1.86 4.79 3.98 2.35 3.28 3.91 2.01 4.72 40.97 2016 4.41 4.40 1.17 1.61 3.75 2.60 7.02 1.97 2.79 4.15 5.41 2.89 42.17 2017 4.83 2.48 5.25 3.84 6.38 4.76 4.19 3.34 2.00 4.18 1.58 2.21 45.04 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 3.51 M M 41.35

16-17 was the only season this decade that the November and March departure pattern didn’t match up. Be interesting to see if the relationship holds again this coming season. NYC Season...Nov....Mar 18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9 17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4 16-17.....+2.1....-3.3 15-16.....+5.1....+6.4 14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4 13-14.....-2.4......-4.8 12-13.....-3.8......-2.4  11-12....+4.2.....+8.4 10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2  09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

Yeah, the 2010’s had 6 mild winters and 4 cold ones. But 8 with above normal snow and only 2 below. +T +S 12-13 15-16 16-17 17-18 +T - S 11-12 18-19 -T +S 09-10 10-11 13-14 14-15

Yeah, it was the 2 Fridays in mid-January 1996. The first was the the roof collapse at the Massapequa Waldbaums. The second was the historic Northeast flash flood event. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1996/01/12/Roof-collapses-at-NY-supermarket/2528821422800/ https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/surveys/flood96/FL96chp1.htm#INTRODUCTION ISP Jan 96. 1996-01-12 43 19 31.0 0.5 34 0 1.07 1.0 14 1996-01-13 38 31 34.5 4.1 30 0 0.01 0.0 10 1996-01-14 38 28 33.0 2.6 32 0 0.00 0.0 7 1996-01-15 41 20 30.5 0.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 5 1996-01-16 39 16 27.5 -2.8 37 0 T 0.0 5 1996-01-17 44 35 39.5 9.2 25 0 0.10 0.0 3 1996-01-18 50 34 42.0 11.7 23 0 0.02 0.0 2 1996-01-19 56 28 42.0 11.7 23 0 0.64 T

It all depends on the storm tracks. We can have mild and snowy winter. But not a snowy winter with an unfavorable Pacific like last year. That was the worst January flood-cutter on record for many parts of the Northeast. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastFloodJanuary1996

The last season for NYC with every month from November to March with below normal temperatures was 95-96. No surprise that that was our snowiest season on record. The January thaw was also accompanied by one of the worst winter flash flood events in the Northeast. NYC Nov....-4.1 Dec....-5.1 Jan.....-2.1 Feb.....-1.5 Mar.....-3.6

This was the warmest June through September melt season on record.The earlier areas of open water had more time to absorb the extra heat. So now it’s taking longer for the Arctic Ocean to release the extra heat back to the atmosphere. Perhaps warm water influx through the Bering Strait also played a role. But I have no way of measuring that. Recent winds (drift circulation) and warmer ocean waters from heat gained during the early spring melt-out

The main reason we had near record low snowfall last DJF was the strong ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. Even some Greenland blocking was no match for such an unfavorable Pacific. While 16-17 and 17-18 were also mild, the NP ridge extended far enough north into Alaska for cold storm tracks needed for snow. The start warm with the strong -NAO in March 2018 really helped us out.

Yeah, the -NAO and -EPO gave us many days with onshore flow.

It’s the latest version of the 2010’s stuck weather patterns.

2019 continues to expand its record breaking daily low extents for late October. The NSIDC 5 day extent is now 5.503 million sq km as of October 20th. This is well below the previous lowest for the date set in 2007 at. 5.946 million sq km. It also places this year 726 k lower than 2012 which was 6.229 million sq km.

That’s why we eventually need to shift this -PNA pattern. The storms that do slip to our SE with patterns like this also have marginal antecedent air masses. So it’s more and interior snow and mix or rain at the coast. Not to mention all the cutters and huggers. The NW-SE temperature dipole pattern across the US this month is ridiculous.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the storm came further north with the SE Ridge on steroids.

This is a new paper on how that warm pool in the central and western equatorial Pacific threw off the winter forecasts last year. We were discussing this last winter. So it’s good to see a study done on it. But only the abstract is available.

This has to be one of the most extreme -PNA patterns we ever had in October. It’s the perfect inverse of the October +PNA composite.

We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date

The models have been struggling post super typhoon recurve. Now the new WPAC developments are compounding the errors.

That anomaly grew a little from yesterday. Now at -3.075 as of October 18th. So 2019 continues as the lowest at 5.310 compared to the 5.663 in 2007 and 5.852 in 2012.