bluewave

A near record +5SD jet streak over 200KT along the gradient in SE Canada.

No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. New run Old run

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

Storm track is very important. Just looking at the DJF temperature departures in NYC doesn’t tell the whole story for snow. March 2017 and January 2019 a great examples of this. But the one common denominator for NYC is that it needs a cold winter to reach 50 inches of snowfall. NYC winter temperature departures since 2010 and seasonal snowfall. 18-19....+1.2....20.5 17-18....+1.1....40.9 16-17....+4.2....30.2 15-16....+5.9....32.5 14-15....-3.7.....50.3 13-14....-2.2.....57.4 12-13....+1.7....26.1 11-12....+5.4....7.4 10-11....-2.3....61.9 09-10....-1.3.....51.4

That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the pattern speak for itself.

Yeah, we need the a strong enough -EPO to at least bring the PNA back closer to neutral. A little -PNA is enough to pump the SE ridge out ahead of storms. I think the last time a strong -PNA really produced for us was back in 2014.

You can see the struggle that the models are having as they transition from phase 5 to phase 6 longer range. Phase 6 composites move the NPAC ridge closer to the West Coast. So those wavelength changes may be hard for the models to properly resolve until under 10 days. We can see more of a -EPO emerge when we start getting closer to 6-7. But you need a strong enough -EPO response to really knock the SE ridge down from such an amped up phase 4-5.

It’s not my job to correct what other posters say about the LR. You are probably more sensitive than I am. You will notice that I just let the winter is over type posts roll off my back . These always pop up when people get bummed out by the current pattern. You seem to get angered by them. But you shouldn’t since opinions can’t drive the actual pattern. Defending misrepresentations of my statements isn’t being sensitive.

Responding to a post doesn’t mean I am endorsing the posters specific POV. Notice how I brought the discussion back to the day 6-10 and mentioned the uncertainty of the longer range.

It always comes down to getting favorable storm tracks. We can have snowy warm patterns or relatively snowless colder periods. Just look at the difference between January 2019 and February 2017. NYC Jan 2019....32.5....-0.1....snowfall....1.1 Feb 2017....41.6....+6.3....snowfall...9.4

You misrepresented what I said, so that is not factual. I never make definitive statements about the period beyond day 10. I always say that if something happens then we could see a particular outcome. But nothing is set in stone.

We did with the the current day 8 from the previous 10. Why do you like to start arguments about the long range when the models have the least skill. It just isn’t worth it.

Day 12 on is still outside the good range of the EPS. If that 12 day survives to day 8, then we have something.

The Jan 20-31 period will come down to the MJO and how it interacts with the pattern. Models seem to agree that we into phase 6 by the 20th. It’s always tricky trying to time out any 500 mb changes past day 10. Since model errors in the day 8-10 time frame just seem to get compounded further out in time. You can see how the SE ridge is a little stronger day 8 than the previous day 10 forecast indicated. New run Old run

Near record jet streak to our north with such an extreme temperature gradient.

We definitely liked the SSW that produced the record snows in March 2018 better.

Still stuck in this record SE ridge pattern.

The cold front finally made it through.

Light coating on the cars and rooftops here in SW Suffolk. Grass and pavement just wet.

While this timing could easily change in later runs, temperatures this warm around midnight could be near record values for January. Very unusual to see these type of temperatures during the night in January.

Individual storm details have been very difficult beyond a few days with the firehose Pacific Jet. Too many different shortwaves for the models to correctly resolve further out. The one recent constant has been temperatures verifying warmer than guidance. Yesterday was the 14th day in a row with above normal temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2019-12-22 2.5 2019-12-23 13.8 2019-12-24 6.5 2019-12-25 4.7 2019-12-26 6.5 2019-12-27 15.7 2019-12-28 12.9 2019-12-29 7.6 2019-12-30 5.3 2019-12-31 6.9 2020-01-01 4.1 2020-01-02 7.7 2020-01-03 13.4 2020-01-04 13.0

I think that people have become warm out by how fickle the models have been with snowfall forecasts this winter. Seems like everyone just wants to wait until nowcast time to see what happens.

This is the general pattern thread. Individual storm threats usually get their own thread. So start one after the 12z runs come in.

Temperatures at least reaching 60+ look like a good bet on the warmest days. But the location of the front will be critical for the exact temperatures. This is going to be an unusually wet January warm up. So the exact temperatures will probably have to wait to within 120 hrs. Unusually wet January warm up

2007 was the last time for Newark. But 64 degrees or warmer in January has become much more common. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65 0 9 2018 64 0 - 2012 64 0 - 1951 64 0 - 1947 64 0