bluewave

There are no other parts of the country with the population density of the OKX forecast zones. While Chicago has the change of seasons like we do, they don’t have the added challenge of coastal storms and hurricanes/tropical storms. So the OKX forecast office in Upton has a unique combination of high population, changing elevation, marine influence, tropical cyclones, and a wide variety of active changing weather throughout the year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/

All I initially mentioned was the challenges of forecasting for NYC and Long Island. You were the one that brought up NJ. When I mentioned other less populated parts of the country ,NJ wasn’t what I was thinking. The NNJ most densely populated counties also present their own set of forecasting challenges. I would say that the totality of the OKX forecast zones in NY, NJ, and CT are probably the most challenging part of the country to forecast for. Most densely populated part of the country with marine zones and mountains and a wide variety of annual changing weather. So our forum is quite unique in that regard.

Still about 2.5 million fewer people than NYC and LI. But most of the population is located in the northern part of the state closest to NYC Metro.

I was talking specifically about NYC and Long Island severe weather events. The narrow 25 mile wide zone of NYC and Long Island has a population of over 11 million people. So we have a very high proportion of the members in the forum. That’s why severe weather and snowstorm forecasts varying by 25-50 miles make a big difference for us. This is often within the margin of error for model forecasts. Not a big deal when it happens in less densely populated regions across the country. But there are more people to notice these small shifts in our tiny geographic region.

These enhanced or higher level severe outlooks usually verify in some portion of the outlined area. But since NYC/LI is only 25 miles wide from north to south, a small shift can make a big difference for us. The July 26, 2012 MDT risk wound up just to our north and west. But the September 8th, 2012 Breezy Point and Canarsie tornado was within that MDT risk.

The biggest NYC and Long Island severe events can occur on days without enhanced risk outlooks. This is not a knock on the fantastic SPC forecast team. But more a reflection on how these events really seem to emerge in the very short term. Perhaps this is just an inherent feature of our local severe thunderstorm climatology. 6-30-2019 https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/wild-weather-leaves-2-dead-3-injured-thousands-without-power https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20190630 9-16-10 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100916 8-8-07 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20070807 Paper on both events https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/27/6/1326/39693/Tornadoes-in-the-New-York-Metropolitan-Region

This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had.

Yeah, it’s the orientation of the ridge axis allowing more onshore flow and humidity with the heat. The Bermuda High axis extending toward. SE New England has allowed the much more humid pattern during recent summers. Our summers with more 100° heat from 2010 to 2013 featured a flatter Bermuda High into the Southeast allowing more westerly flow here.

It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Max Temperature 1 1955 14 100 2 2020 13 97 - 1999 13 101 3 2012 11 101 4 2010 10 103 4 1995 10 103

All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 4 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 4 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 8 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 77.0 4 5 1993 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 4 - 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2020 75.8 4 - 2011 75.8 0 5 1983 75.6 0

IPT missed the record high by a degree. Looks like CDW was the warmest in our area at 95°. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCDW

EWR gusted to 71 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KEWR

Very heavy downpour, frequent lightning, and 20-30 mph gusts here in SW Suffolk.

The radar velocity looks like there may have been some 50+ gusts around Miller Place and Rocky Point.

Southhold gusted to 52 mph. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=sout

New Haven gusted to 69 mph. 16:10 78.0 68.2 71.2 72 43.0 69.0

91° now in Wantagh with a 96° HX. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

Harrisburg made it to 98° with the warm downslope flow. Late afternoon high temperatures for our area as WAA keeps going into this evening. 850s peak at +18C to +20 C in a few hours. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCXY

Yeah, it felt great. Looks like the warm front is further north today than expected. The NAM has us warming into the 90s as the flow becomes more WSW this afternoon.

Unfortunately, these rapid intensifications prior to landfall have become more common in recent years. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Highly-Unusual-Upward-Trends-Rapidly-Intensifying-Atlantic-Hurricanes-Blamed-Global-Warming It’s very sobering to see that two of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes before landfall (Michael in 2018 and Harvey in 2017) since 1950 have occurred in the past two hurricane seasons, and that a significant increase in such rapidly intensifying hurricanes is predicted by some of our top computer models. Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall: Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall: Humberto 2007 (65 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall) King 1950 (60 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall) Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase, Cat 3 landfall) Danny 1997 (50 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall) Michael 2018 (45 mph increase, Cat 5 landfall) Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall) Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall)

Today was our lowest humidity on Long Island since the end of June. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Most impressive temperature gradient of the summer tomorrow ahead of the severe threat. This will be one of the few times this year that the strongest heat won’t be found over New England. Maybe the warmest spots around the region can make another run on 95°.

Finally got a NW flow day with dew points in the low 50s. We may see the next one Sunday into Monday. Kennedy Intl PTCLDY 69 53 56 NW10

LGA gusting to 51mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KLGA

Great view from the Queens College Mesonet. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=quee