bluewave

Thanks for posting. A stronger phase 7 could set up a -EPO gradient pattern in late January.

Patience is required in eventually getting to a colder pattern since MJO’s have become so extreme. This one already caused catastrophic flooding due to the record SST’s north of Australia. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/not-ordinary-rain-worst-rainfall-in-over-decade-causes-massive-floods-in-jakarta.html Jakarta average rainfall intensity during big floods The rainfall intensity recorded on Dec. 31, 2019 is deemed the highest ever occurred in Jakarta compared to other years of when big flood occurred in the capital city.

We discussed it in the MJO posts earlier today. The EPS tends to be too weak in MJO phase 6 following phase 5. So the other models have a slightly different pattern around day 10 due to the stronger MJO phase 6.

We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February.

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out. That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going to phase 8 by the start of February.

That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC Dec 50.8...2015 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 Jan 43.2....1932 41.4....1990/1950 40.9....1913/2006 Feb 42.0...2018 41.6...2017 40.9...2012

NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2005-01-15 42.2 0 7 1937-01-15 42.1 0 8 1930-01-15 41.7 0 9 1890-01-15 41.4 0 10 2020-01-15 41.2 8

Light rain just began here in SW Suffolk at 40 degrees.

This is the lowest snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere on January 6th since 2007.

I think most on here care more about what the SE ridge does when a storm is ejecting out of the Plains and Rockies. A flatter SE ridge in the means relative to the next week was expected post phase 4-5 peak. So you need to see improvements in the EPO and PNA before things get more interesting. But you will want to see those improvements make it to day 7-8 to have more confidence in the forecast. The day 10-15 range is always subject to change once within the 6-10. And the the 6-10 still changes once to within days 1-5.

The day 10 EPS still shows a strong -PNA pattern. That’s what people are concerned about. So anything too amped could easily cut. The difference between the old and new runs at that time is the more +EPO. New run Old run

Yeah, all cutters and huggers. Only 1.9“of snow at at JFK for 8.03 of total precipitation in December.

A near record +5SD jet streak over 200KT along the gradient in SE Canada.

No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event. New run Old run

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

Storm track is very important. Just looking at the DJF temperature departures in NYC doesn’t tell the whole story for snow. March 2017 and January 2019 a great examples of this. But the one common denominator for NYC is that it needs a cold winter to reach 50 inches of snowfall. NYC winter temperature departures since 2010 and seasonal snowfall. 18-19....+1.2....20.5 17-18....+1.1....40.9 16-17....+4.2....30.2 15-16....+5.9....32.5 14-15....-3.7.....50.3 13-14....-2.2.....57.4 12-13....+1.7....26.1 11-12....+5.4....7.4 10-11....-2.3....61.9 09-10....-1.3.....51.4

That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the pattern speak for itself.

Yeah, we need the a strong enough -EPO to at least bring the PNA back closer to neutral. A little -PNA is enough to pump the SE ridge out ahead of storms. I think the last time a strong -PNA really produced for us was back in 2014.

You can see the struggle that the models are having as they transition from phase 5 to phase 6 longer range. Phase 6 composites move the NPAC ridge closer to the West Coast. So those wavelength changes may be hard for the models to properly resolve until under 10 days. We can see more of a -EPO emerge when we start getting closer to 6-7. But you need a strong enough -EPO response to really knock the SE ridge down from such an amped up phase 4-5.

It’s not my job to correct what other posters say about the LR. You are probably more sensitive than I am. You will notice that I just let the winter is over type posts roll off my back . These always pop up when people get bummed out by the current pattern. You seem to get angered by them. But you shouldn’t since opinions can’t drive the actual pattern. Defending misrepresentations of my statements isn’t being sensitive.

Responding to a post doesn’t mean I am endorsing the posters specific POV. Notice how I brought the discussion back to the day 6-10 and mentioned the uncertainty of the longer range.

It always comes down to getting favorable storm tracks. We can have snowy warm patterns or relatively snowless colder periods. Just look at the difference between January 2019 and February 2017. NYC Jan 2019....32.5....-0.1....snowfall....1.1 Feb 2017....41.6....+6.3....snowfall...9.4