bluewave

Some video of the sleet along the South Shore.

39° with sleet mixing here in SW Suffolk. Models did an excellent job advertising this potential well in advance.

No surprise that we are seeing another very early season snow with the North American snow cover extent setting a new October record. This is our 5th snow event by mid-November since 2008. This includes the late October events in 2008 and 2011 along with November 2012 and 2018. Let me know if I am missing one from the northern parts of our forum. My guess is that this is related to the steep October sea ice decline since 2007. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

Yeah, Saturday morning may be our lowest temperature for a while. The early next week cool down not looking as impressive. Then we get a moderation in temperatures.

While the record cold around the Rockies and Plains has been impressive, it’s focused over a very small geographic region of the planet. The coverage of the record cold is much smaller than the areas and magnitude of record warmth as the world warms. It’s no coincidence that the record October cold near Montana is occurring in an isolated pocket relative to the overall extent of the global temperature increases. Montana represents a portion of the only 17 out of 2,844 stations with under 6 months of warming over the last 30 years.

If NYC can drop to 34° or lower before the end of October, then it would be the first time since 2011. ..New York City... Central Park, NY Rain Rain Sunny Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny /52 44/45 34/49 41/58 39/48 36/51 40/58 /100 100/80 10/00 00/30 30/10 00/00 00/10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2019 43 0 2018 38 0 2017 42 0 2016 38 0 2015 35 0 2014 42 0 2013 40 0 2012 38 0 2011 33 0

RI has become the new normal in recent years.

This was the October version of DJF 17-18.

Much warmer SSTs this October than in 1995. The Western Ridge is also significantly stronger. You can see how much more amplified the 500 MB pattern is this year.

Notice how the seasonal forecasts from August missed the magnitude of the Ridge parked over Western North America this fall. UKMET Euro September and October verification

Yeah, the ridge locked in near the West Coast keeps warming the SSTs. So we got the smallest north-south SST gradient in the NE Pacific. These are the warmest NE Pacific SSTs we have seen with a La Niña of this strength.

Maybe it’s related to the record WPAC warm pool? I read some papers on how the anomalous ridging near the West Coast since 2013 could be related to the record SSTs in the Tropical WPAC. Then there were other papers that suggest a link between the record Pacific basin SSTs and the low Arctic sea ice.

Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines. You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years.

Yeah, looks like the vortex will verify over Greenland instead of Alaska. New run Old run

Yeah, we get 2 decent cold shots before the big NAO reversal and moderating temperatures.

NAM is 2”+ of heavy rainfall with some wet flakes mixing in at the very end.

Cloudiness is running well above average for October like recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2020&month=10&dpi=100&_fmt=png

May 9th to October 30th would be the new record for fewest days between 2 different seasonal traces of snow in the same year.

Yeah, the SE Ridge is slightly weaker than 24 hours ago in the forecasts. So the the phase is a little slower with 2 more distinct areas of low pressure. We could still see our first flakes of the season. New run old run

Maybe someone can do a formal reanalysis on the Dec 94 event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter

We can add the 2008 elevation event to the list along with the TS Philippe absorption /phase in 2017. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201710301800 Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... POMONA T 250 PM 10/28 ACY INTL AIPRORT ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MOUNT HOLLY 0.1 245 PM 10/28 NWS OFFICE CROSSWICKS T 1048 AM 10/28 MOUNT LAUREL T 420 PM 10/28 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... LEBANON 12.0 500 PM 10/28 950 FT CHERRYVILLE 5.0 400 PM 10/28 HIGH BRIDGE 2.4 130 PM 10/28 CLINTON 1.7 300 PM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 825 AM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 420 PM 10/28 ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL 2.5 425 PM 10/28 EAST WINDSOR T 1030 AM 10/28 EWING T 915 AM 10/28 HAMILTON SQUARE T 1032 AM 10/28 MERCERVILLE T 1052 AM 10/28 PRINCETON T 900 AM 10/28 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... NEW BRUNSWICK 1.5 130 PM 10/28 EDISON 1.0 1130 AM 10/28 ...MORRIS COUNTY... MOUNT OLIVE 11.5 520 PM 10/28 AT 1000 FEET LONG VALLEY 8.0 420 PM 10/28 AT 1200 FEET FLANDERS 5.5 730 PM 10/28 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.0 730 PM 10/28 MOUNT OLIVE 3.0 130 PM 10/28 BUTLER T 730 PM 10/28 ...OCEAN COUNTY... TOMS RIVER T 100 PM 10/28 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... HILLSBOROUGH 1.2 130 PM 10/28 PEAPACK 1.0 1117 AM 10/28 BRIDGEWATER 0.3 130 PM 10/28 BEDMINSTER T 1045 AM 10/28 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... HIGH POINT STATE 14.0 400 PM 10/28 WANTAGE 4.5 420 PM 10/28 AT 1020 FEET BARRY LAKES 3.0 725 PM 10/28 NEWTON 2.5 730 PM 10/28 SPARTA 2.0 725 PM 10/28 UP TO 5 HIGHER TRRN LAFAYETTE 0.5 130 PM 10/28 ...WARREN COUNTY... HACKETTSTOWN 4.8 420 PM 10/28 HACKETTSTOWN 4.0 645 PM 10/28 ALLAMUCHY 3.0 1105 AM 10/28 BLAIRSTOWN 0.5 730 PM 10/28 STEWARTSVILLE T 420 PM 10/28 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... JAMISON 3.0 230 PM 10/28 CHALFONT 2.0 400 PM 10/28 FAIRLESS HILLS 1.5 736 PM 10/28 FURLONG 1.2 230 PM 10/28 DOYLESTOWN 1.0 130 PM 10/28 LANGHORNE 0.8 230 PM 10/28 BENSALEM 0.5 230 PM 10/28 LEVITTOWN T 1040 AM 10/28 SPRINGTOWN T 720 AM 10/28 ...CARBON COUNTY... ALBRIGHTSVILLE 6.0 1115 AM 10/28 ELEV. AROUND 1700 FEET JIM THORPE T 700 AM 10/28 PALMERTON T 700 AM 10/28 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 16.0 700 PM 10/28 POWER OUTAGES POCONO SUMMIT 4.5 1100 AM 10/28 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... MONTGOMERYVILLE 2.0 420 PM 10/28 SOUDERTON 1.5 1140 AM 10/28 WILLOW GROVE T 700 AM 10/28 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... PHILADELPHIA T 1124 AM 10/28 N

Quicker phase on the 12z Euro. Plenty of heavy rain and wind ending as snow. Then a freeze as the 980s class low pulls away.

That’s it. The 12z UKMET also has an earlier phase close to the coast. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

May 1977 was the last time.