bluewave

EPS weeklies keep the perma-ridge firmly planted over Eastern Canada for the rest of October. So generally near to above normal temperatures. But we could see some slightly cooler days mixed in. Still no big -10 departure days showing up as mild Pacific air will dominate with the strong -PNA +EPO. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31

The milder south based blocking has been persistent since last December. 10-01 to 10-16…21 12-01-20 to 10-16-21

Newark finally made it to 49°. This was the latest first 40s of the season by 5 days. The other records were in the last few years with the delayed falls. Boston is getting close at 50° to their latest 40s. NYC made 2nd latest. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164 1973 05-19 (1973) 42 10-11 (1973) 49 144 2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146 2002 05-23 (2002) 45 10-09 (2002) 48 138 2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150 1988 05-12 (1988) 48 10-05 (1988) 48 145 1964 06-04 (1964) 48 10-05 (1964) 46 122

Yeah, February 2015 was our only top 10 coldest winter month since 2010. But there have been 9 top 10 warmest winter months since 2010. Funny how the 14° warmer February 2016 went below 0° but 2015 couldn’t.

Yeah, these delayed falls have become very common over the last 20 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 11 2011-10-15 68.4 0 12 2019-10-15 68.2 0 - 1931-10-15 68.2 0 13 2016-10-15 67.8 0 - 2002-10-15 67.8 0 14 1995-10-15 67.7 0 - 1968-10-15 67.7 0 15 2010-10-15 67.6 0

Yeah, the only 70s winter that had impressive snowstorms by recent standards was 77-78. The 70s was the last time we saw a top 10 coldest winter in our area. Now its frequent top 10 or top 20 warmest winters. Warmest winters NY climate division 4 200112 - 200202 39.3°F 126 5.8°F 201512 - 201602 39.3°F 126 5.8°F 201112 - 201202 38.7°F 124 5.2°F 201612 - 201702 37.8°F 123 4.3°F 193112 - 193202 37.7°F 122 4.2°F 199712 - 199802 37.7°F 122 4.2°F 201912 - 202002 37.6°F 120 4.1°F 199012 - 199102 36.5°F 119 3.0°F 199812 - 199902 36.4°F 118 2.9°F 193612 - 193702 36.3°F 117 2.8°F 199612 - 199702 36.1°F 116 2.6°F 194812 - 194902 35.9°F 115 2.4°F 195212 - 195302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F 201212 - 201302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F 193212 - 193302 35.6°F 112 2.1°F 200512 - 200602 35.5°F 111 2.0°F 199412 - 199502 35.4°F 110 1.9°F 198212 - 198302 35.3°F 109 1.8°F 200612 - 200702 35.3°F 109 1.8°F 197412 - 197502 35.2°F 107 1.7°F 195312 - 195402 35.1°F 106 1.6°F Coldest winters 191712 - 191802 23.4°F 1 -10.1°F 190312 - 190402 24.2°F 2 -9.3°F 190412 - 190502 24.3°F 3 -9.2°F 191912 - 192002 25.4°F 4 -8.1°F 193512 - 193602 26.8°F 5 -6.7°F 193312 - 193402 27.0°F 6 -6.5°F 197612 - 197702 27.3°F 7 -6.2°F 190612 - 190702 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F 194712 - 194802 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F 192212 - 192302 27.8°F 10 -5.7°F 191112 - 191202 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F 196212 - 196302 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F 197712 - 197802 28.2°F 13 -5.3°F 190012 - 190102 28.4°F 14 -5.1°F 189812 - 189902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 194412 - 194502 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 195812 - 195902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 190112 - 190202 28.6°F 18 -4.9°F 193912 - 194002 28.7°F 19 -4.8°F 191012 - 191102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F 196012 - 196102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F 196912 - 197002 29.0°F 22 -4.5°F 191612 - 191702 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F 199312 - 199402 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F 190912 - 191002 29.4°F 25 -4.1°F 189612 - 189702 29.5°F 26 -4.0°F 193412 - 193502 29.6°F 27 -3.9°F

Every snowfall season since 09-10 has had at least 1 top 10 snowiest month at one of our stations. This was also true for the disappointing 11-12, 18-19, and 19-20 seasons. October 2011 was the snowiest on record in NYC. November 2018 was 4th snowiest in NYC. May 2020 tied for snowiest with 1977 for the record late trace around the area.

Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time.

The Meteo-France seasonal shows what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies. https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

Yeah, one of the most perfect October La Niña 500 mb patterns that we have ever seen.

You know that the cold air will be very limited in North America with 5 sigma jet maxes in the Pacific.

This could be our second year in a row with the coldest departures of the year in May. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This is another delayed fall. A top 3 warmest first half of fall around the area. Notice how many top 10s in the last several years. Even parts of Long Island averaged close to 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2005-10-15 69.0 1 2 2021-10-15 68.5 0 3 2018-10-15 68.0 0 - 2017-10-15 68.0 0 4 2015-10-15 67.8 0 5 2016-10-15 67.6 5 6 2007-10-15 66.5 0 7 2002-10-15 66.0 0 8 2011-10-15 65.7 0 - 2010-10-15 65.7 0 9 2020-10-15 65.6 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2018-10-15 68.1 0 2 2005-10-15 68.0 0 3 2021-10-15 67.9 0 - 2017-10-15 67.9 0 4 1990-10-15 66.8 0 5 2015-10-15 66.6 0 6 2011-10-15 66.4 0 7 2007-10-15 66.2 0 - 1983-10-15 66.2 0 8 1980-10-15 66.0 0 9 1971-10-15 65.6 0 10 1998-10-15 65.3 0

JFK and LGA were nearly identical in January during the 1981-2010 climate normals period. But it changed during the new 1991-2020 climate normals. JFK is the only station in our area with not much of a January temperature increase for the new January climate normals. I doubt it’s UHI since LGA rose at exactly the same rate as HPN which is in a more rural part of our area near the CT border in Westchester. But the more interesting question is why did the average temperature at JFK hold steady while all the surrounding areas rose between +1.1 and +1.5°? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=81&location=NY Station…81-10….91-20…January increase EWR….31.6…32.8…+1.2 NYC….32.6...33.7…+1.1 LGA….32.9..34.4…+1.5 JFK….32.7….32.8…+0.1 ISP…..30.6…31.9…..+1.3 HPN…28.3…29.8….+1.5

Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world.

Our last -10 departure day was during the July 4th weekend. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Really weak cold departures behind the front this weekend before we warm up again next week.

With a low of 63°, Newark just set the record for most 60°or warmer minimums in October. The low of 58° at HPN puts it 1 day away from the October 55° or warmer minimum record. FWN also set their new 54° minimum or warmer days record for October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1 2021 12 16 2 2017 11 0 1971 11 0 1959 11 0 3 2007 10 0 1954 10 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Missing Count 1 1971 13 0 2 2017 12 0 - 2007 12 0 2021 12 17 3 2018 11 0 - 1954 11 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 54 Missing Count 1 2021 11 16 2 2007 10 0 3 2017 8 0 4 2018 7 0 - 2012 7 3

We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. November NY climate division 4 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F .

We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. November 1-8 long range forecast La Niña November 2016 La Niña November 2017

A back and forth between warm ups and cool downs over the next few weeks. So temperatures averaging closer to normal will feel cool compared recent times. But still no really cold -10 type departures on the horizon. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31

The long range forecast into early November is more uncertain in the new extended EPS. The blocking looks less impressive now. Maybe the strat warming is having trouble coupling with the troposphere? If that is the case, then any cool down would be less impressive than earlier forecasts were hinting at. We’ll have to just wait and see… New run November 1-7 Old run

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport. https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming. Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.