bluewave

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks.

JFK only made it to 95° during the 1977 heatwave. We had strong sea breezes with that event along the South Shore. The SSTs were much cooler in the 1970s especially after the record breaking cold 76-77 winter. Data for January 1, 1977 through December 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94 CT WESTBROOK COOP 93 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93 NY MONTAUK COOP 93 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine.

Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park. Much different than this more recent article in 2013. https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/ “[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring. “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said. A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].” Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 72 1977-07-14 89 72 1977-07-15 90 69 1977-07-16 96 72 1977-07-17 95 74 1977-07-18 95 76 1977-07-19 99 75 1977-07-20 90 74 1977-07-21 99 78

We are getting to the point when a summer is considered cool with under 30 days reaching 90° away from the influence of the sea breeze. The 90s had numerous years with higher 90° day counts. But it also had lower count years mixed in. Very tough to get lower count years these days.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out. This is one of the strongest La Niña patterns that we have seen in May. But it’s tough to use old analogs since our summers have become much hotter since 2010.

The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010.

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. EPS May 9-16 May 16-23

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10.

I wonder what our record is for consecutive days with an easterly component to the wind? The easterlies began back on Friday. The models all continue the easterly flow into next weekend as the cutoff gets stuck under the near record 588 dm block over New England.

You would have to ask them that question. We don’t see anyone from the Upton posting on this forum. Albany just corrected their cold bias. To the Editor: If you have been following the latest monthly temperature trends, as provided by the National Weather Service, you might have noticed that we have had five months with below normal average temperatures, and only two that have been above this year (January and March). In fact, if you go back to last year, you might have noticed a “cooling” beginning in August, as three out of the six last months of 2020 finished below normal. This was happening at the same time that many of the same months were close to record high levels worldwide. The National Weather Service issued its new 30-year climate averages in July 2021 (including the average temperature of the years 1991 to to 2020). This new set of averages indicated many of our monthly averages have warmed nearly a degree compared to the 1981-2010 averages. This would account for some of the cooler departures in recent months. A persistent trough has settled into the region for much of this time, accounting for some local cooling. However, a much bigger concern is the actual thermometer located at the Albany International Airport. In July 2020, it was discovered that it had been running a degree too warm. The sensor was replaced and it was immediately noted it was running about three degrees too low (cool). It took until mid-October 2020 for it to be replaced, but alas, the new replacement still appears to still be running at least two degrees too low. There are no signs of it being replaced anytime soon, at least before the winter. A thermometer is a basic instrument, originally measured by the response of mercury or alcohol in a tube, and can be calibrated quite accurately. The National Weather Service has a more complex one, via an instrument called Automated Surface Observing System. It is well aspirated to prevent any “solar spikes” that many homemade thermometers might have if they are not located in a north position facing away from any sun. The instrument is required to be at least five feet off the ground to avoid any excessive surface heating that can happen near asphalt and other heat-absorbing materials. The thermometer sensor is part of a complex computerized system that also records wind speed, barometric pressure, and precipitation, which is issued automatically with initially no human intervention. A weather observer or traffic controller is required to be on duty at the airport to quality control the data that is disseminated. One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming. However, according to the National Weather Service from the Silver Spring headquarters, the number-one client the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer is tailored for, would be the aviation community. The National Weather Service claims it relies on many volunteers for climate data for climate information, collectively called the Cooperative Observer Program or COOP. Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. Also, the National Weather Service, both locally and at the higher end, realize there is a two- to three-degree cool bias, but argue the sensor itself is not to blame. My question to them: Then what is it? So far, there has been no answer. How do we know the thermometer has such a cool bias? You might have seen our local TV meteorologists use the Pine Bush temperature readings instead of the airport for a more representative temperature. I personally have a Davis thermometer myself, and have been keeping track of high and low temperatures for years. I live in the southwestern portion of Albany, away from the city heat island. I am on top of a small hill so my overnight lows usually ran about a degree or so warmer than the airport. However, my high temperatures were usually within a degree of the airport’s temperature until July 18, 2020, the day the thermometer was changed at the airport. From that point on, with a few noted exceptions, my thermometer has been consistently running 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the airport, the same thermometer I have had for years. My thermometer’s readings are much closer to the Pine Bush’s for high temperatures, and to many of my friends’ thermometers. If you look at monthly temperatures at Pittsfield and Glens Falls, in the past months, they have been very close to the airport. In the past, both places would usually run a mean temperature (combined high and low temperature) closer to 3 degrees lower than the Albany International Airport). Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor. Hugh Johnson Albany Editor’s note: Hugh Johnson, now retired, used to work for the National Weather Service. Joe Villani, a meteorologist at the Albany office of the National Weather Service, confirmed for The Enterprise that the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is several degrees off. “We’re definitely aware of it ….,” he said. “People at National Weather Service headquarters are looking into resolving it.” Villani said it can take time to diagnose problems with equipment invented in the 1990s. It was noted in July 2020, that the thermometer was running too cool, he said, so it was replaced last October but continues to run too cool. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$ SND/MEM 000 NOUS41 KALY 301152 PNSALY MAZ001-025-NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-082-084-021200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$ SND/MEM

Temperatures finally getting back closer to normal this week into next weekend. Looks like a mix of 60s some days and 70s on the warmer days around NYC . The cutoff low stalling to our south will maintain the onshore flow.

I haven’t found any instances of JFK having more 90° days than LGA or EWR. JFK and several Long Island stations beat Central Park in 2006. But we know it’s due to the trees and vegetation artificially cooling the NYC readings .That was a few years after the 2003 news report on the inaccurate NYC temperatures. So this issue has been known for over 20 years now without any response. Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc. Data for January 1, 2006 through December 31, 2006 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 30 NJ HARRISON COOP 30 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 30 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 27 NJ CRANFORD COOP 24 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 24 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 22 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22 NY BRONX COOP 21 CT DANBURY COOP 20 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 18 NY WEST POINT COOP 18 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 16 NY MINEOLA COOP 16 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 15 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 13 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 12 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 11 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 11 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 11 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 10 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 10 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 9 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 8

I am getting a few breaks of sun here in SW Suffolk.

The sea breeze makes it difficult for coastal sections to lead on 90° days. But JFK has become the high dewpoint leader in recent years. ISP has also seen a dramatic increase in 75° Miami Dewpoint days. Notice how many top years there have been since the super El Niño. Top years with the most 75° dewpoint days JFK 43…2018 26….2019 24….1983 19….2016 18….2021 18….1999 17….2020 17….2017 17….1995 16….1984 15….1988 15…..1987 13….2012 13….1959 13….1955 11….2005 11….1991 ISP 34….2018 26….2020 22….2021 19….2005 18….2019 15…1979 15…1975 14….1998 14….1995 13…2016 13…2002 11…1999 10…2001 10…1990 10…1988 10…1987

Clear skies today just to our NW.

The blocking just changed locations. We had a strong -AO block in April. Now the models are forecasting a record SE Canada block in the coming days.

It could be a short window of opportunity if the models are correct about the next trough in 8-10 days.

The first 90° readings of the season look possible for New England by next weekend. Very unusual skinny 588 dm ridge over the cutoff low. If the winds stay S or SE, then NYC and LGA may only top out in the upper 70s. But a SW flow would be easy 80s even for NYC and LGA.

Yes. The most among the major sites like NYC, EWR, and LGA. Central Park would regularly tie or lead for the most 90° days from the 1930s to 1980. But the tree growth over the equipment has prevented it from happening since 1980. If the station was properly maintained, NYC could have lead the area or tied for the most 90° days several years since then. Years when Central Park lead or tied for most 90° days 1936 NYC….26 EWR….22 1937 NYC…22 EWR…22 1939 NYC…24 EWR…24 1941 NYC…29 EWR…27 1953 NYC….32 EWR….32 1962 NYC….18 EWR….14 1966 NYC…35 EWR….33 1967 NYC…..9 EWR….7 1969 NYC….16 EWR…15 1970 NYC…29 EWR….29 1976 NYC…15 EWR..15 1980 NYC…32 EWR…27

Sneaky freezing layer near 850 mb.

The block over the top of this cutoff low will approach record levels for early May exceeding 588 dm in spots.

Slight increase in days during May staying under 55° at LGA since 1981 compared to the big winter increase in days over 55°.

Sunday looks like low clouds and drizzle near the coast with a sunny day just to our NW.

We can clearly identify the mid 1990s into the early 2000s as the period when the trees began to cover the Central Park equipment. From the 1950s through the early 1990s, NYC would record 90 degree days in reasonable agreement with either EWR or LGA. Then NYC fell far behind during the 2000s when tree growth caused the high temperature readings to become unreliable. Sample years for 90 days since 1955 1955 EWR…32 NYC….25 LGA…..29 1966 EWR….33 NYC….35 LGA….25 1977 EWR….26 NYC….23 LGA…..14 1980 EWR…27 NYC…32 LGA….22 1983 EWR…40 NYC…36 LGA….31 1988 EWR….43 NYC….32 LGA…..26 1991 EWR…41 NYC…39 LGA….34 1999 EWR….33 NYC….27 LGA….26 2005 EWR….37 NYC….23 LGA…..30 2006 EWR…..27 NYC…..8 LGA……22 2010 NYC…54 NYC….37 LGA….48 2016 EWR….40 NYC…..22 LGA…..32 2020 EWR….31 NYC….20 LGA…..34 2021 EWR….41 NYC…..17 LGA…..25