bluewave

This could be our second year in a row with the coldest departures of the year in May. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This is another delayed fall. A top 3 warmest first half of fall around the area. Notice how many top 10s in the last several years. Even parts of Long Island averaged close to 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2005-10-15 69.0 1 2 2021-10-15 68.5 0 3 2018-10-15 68.0 0 - 2017-10-15 68.0 0 4 2015-10-15 67.8 0 5 2016-10-15 67.6 5 6 2007-10-15 66.5 0 7 2002-10-15 66.0 0 8 2011-10-15 65.7 0 - 2010-10-15 65.7 0 9 2020-10-15 65.6 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2018-10-15 68.1 0 2 2005-10-15 68.0 0 3 2021-10-15 67.9 0 - 2017-10-15 67.9 0 4 1990-10-15 66.8 0 5 2015-10-15 66.6 0 6 2011-10-15 66.4 0 7 2007-10-15 66.2 0 - 1983-10-15 66.2 0 8 1980-10-15 66.0 0 9 1971-10-15 65.6 0 10 1998-10-15 65.3 0

JFK and LGA were nearly identical in January during the 1981-2010 climate normals period. But it changed during the new 1991-2020 climate normals. JFK is the only station in our area with not much of a January temperature increase for the new January climate normals. I doubt it’s UHI since LGA rose at exactly the same rate as HPN which is in a more rural part of our area near the CT border in Westchester. But the more interesting question is why did the average temperature at JFK hold steady while all the surrounding areas rose between +1.1 and +1.5°? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=81&location=NY Station…81-10….91-20…January increase EWR….31.6…32.8…+1.2 NYC….32.6...33.7…+1.1 LGA….32.9..34.4…+1.5 JFK….32.7….32.8…+0.1 ISP…..30.6…31.9…..+1.3 HPN…28.3…29.8….+1.5

Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world.

Our last -10 departure day was during the July 4th weekend. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Really weak cold departures behind the front this weekend before we warm up again next week.

With a low of 63°, Newark just set the record for most 60°or warmer minimums in October. The low of 58° at HPN puts it 1 day away from the October 55° or warmer minimum record. FWN also set their new 54° minimum or warmer days record for October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1 2021 12 16 2 2017 11 0 1971 11 0 1959 11 0 3 2007 10 0 1954 10 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Missing Count 1 1971 13 0 2 2017 12 0 - 2007 12 0 2021 12 17 3 2018 11 0 - 1954 11 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 54 Missing Count 1 2021 11 16 2 2007 10 0 3 2017 8 0 4 2018 7 0 - 2012 7 3

We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. November NY climate division 4 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F .

We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. November 1-8 long range forecast La Niña November 2016 La Niña November 2017

A back and forth between warm ups and cool downs over the next few weeks. So temperatures averaging closer to normal will feel cool compared recent times. But still no really cold -10 type departures on the horizon. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31

The long range forecast into early November is more uncertain in the new extended EPS. The blocking looks less impressive now. Maybe the strat warming is having trouble coupling with the troposphere? If that is the case, then any cool down would be less impressive than earlier forecasts were hinting at. We’ll have to just wait and see… New run November 1-7 Old run

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport. https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming. Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT PROCEDURE. A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER, HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS (THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE). THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

The first half of fall is one of the warmest on record. No surprise to see the recent years filling out the rest of the list. The next few days will add to the warmth. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13 Missing Count 1 2018-10-13 68.6 0 2 2017-10-13 68.1 0 3 1959-10-13 68.0 0 4 2021-10-13 67.9 0 - 2005-10-13 67.9 0 5 1961-10-13 67.8 0 6 2015-10-13 67.5 0 7 2016-10-13 67.3 0 - 2011-10-13 67.3 0 8 2007-10-13 67.0 0 9 1973-10-13 66.5 0 10 1971-10-13 66.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13 Missing Count 1 2018-10-13 68.7 0 2 2005-10-13 68.2 0 3 2017-10-13 67.9 0 4 2021-10-13 67.8 0 5 2015-10-13 67.0 0 6 2007-10-13 66.7 0 7 2011-10-13 66.6 0 - 1990-10-13 66.6 0 - 1983-10-13 66.6 0 - 1980-10-13 66.6 0 8 2016-10-13 65.8 0 - 2002-10-13 65.8 0 9 1998-10-13 65.7 0 10 1971-10-13 65.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13 Missing Count 1 1961-10-13 71.5 0 2 2021-10-13 70.9 0 3 1959-10-13 70.8 0 4 2005-10-13 70.6 0 5 2018-10-13 70.3 0 6 2017-10-13 70.0 0 7 2007-10-13 69.5 0 8 2015-10-13 69.4 0 9 1973-10-13 69.2 0 10 1983-10-13 69.1 0

We still had a +10 departure today even with all the clouds around. But the minimum departure was more impressive than the maximum. Several of the models were showing the potential for more clouds from the forecasts yesterday. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 447 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 13 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 72 259 PM 89 1954 67 5 61 MINIMUM 64 312 AM 34 2012 50 14 53 AVERAGE 68 58 10 57

November has been our only fall month to regularly experience cold departures. But the record warmth in November 2020, 2015, and 2011 were exceptions to the rule. Since September and October have had so much record warmth, Fall 2015 was our #1 warmest….2017…..#2…..2011 and 2016…..#3……2020…..#6. So these delayed falls have become more common over the last decade. Fall monthly temperature departures in the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island September departures 202109 69.2°F 122 3.4°F 202009 66.9°F 99 1.1°F 201909 67.4°F 107 1.6°F 201809 69.6°F 124 3.8°F 201709 68.6°F 118 2.8°F 201609 69.4°F 123 3.6°F 201509 70.8°F 126 5.0°F 201409 67.4°F 107 1.6°F 201309 64.4°F 41 -1.4°F 201209 66.7°F 97 0.9°F 201109 68.7°F 119 2.9°F 201009 68.8°F 121 3.0°F October 202010 57.0°F 104 2.0°F 201910 58.0°F 115 3.0°F 201810 56.5°F 94 1.5°F 201710 62.0°F 126 7.0°F 201610 57.6°F 110 2.6°F 201510 55.5°F 76 0.5°F 201410 57.8°F 112 2.8°F 201310 57.5°F 108 2.5°F 201210 57.9°F 113 2.9°F 201110 56.6°F 97 1.6°F 201010 56.4°F 92 1.4°F November 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

I am just hoping the big upgrade fixes the EC storm suppression issue of recent years. We had to rely on the NAM for big events like the January 2016 blizzard. Seems like something changed after the Euro nailed Sandy and Nemo in 12-13.

2013 when you average out all the local stations. Before that it was 2000. But notice how weak the cold departures were even on those two years. 2013….NYC 5 boroughs and Long Island SON average departure -0.3…….Northern NJ…..-0.1 2000….-0.6…..-0.2 NY climate division 4 NJ climate division 1

The area around ISP is headed for the latest first 45° of fall on record. The previous latest was set back in 2017. But you can see all the late dates in recent years with the delayed fall patterns. The recent average first date from 2010 to 2020 was 10-3. From 1964 to 1980 the average was 10 days earlier around 9-23. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 1983 05-28 (1983) 45 10-16 (1983) 43 140 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2007 05-18 (2007) 45 10-13 (2007) 39 147 1967 06-01 (1967) 42 10-12 (1967) 45 132 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159

Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together.

Parts of Northern New England are on track for their latest first freeze on record.

After the near record warmth this week, the EPS has closer to normal temperatures next week. This means NYC may finally drop below 50°. But it will be among the latest first 40s on record. Since the EPO remains very positive, temperature departures rebound for the last week of October. Oct 11-18 Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31

Walt, do you know how the new Euro that was in parallel did? Looks like the upgrade tomorrow will be the biggest in a long time. It’s the first step toward the future convection permitting 4 to 5 km resolution. We are pleased to confirm the operational implementation of IFS Cycle 47r3 with the 06 UTC run, 12 October 2021 The upgrade will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The release candidate phase has been running in near real-time since 14 September. In a recent Webinar we explained the scientific background, its meteorological impact, and some new and revised products. Forecast users are recommended to read "47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation", highlighting the changes with 47r3 in the characteristics of many frequently used forecast fields and products. We would also like to remind you of a change to the “Master Tables Version Number”, affecting allparameters in GRIB 2, and encourage you to check your data processing with the test data provided as soon as possible ahead of implementation. Detailed information can be found on the 47r3 implementation page. Please “watch” the page to get notified about further updates. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/47r3+Impact+on+Surface+Weather+representation IFS cycle 47r3 is delivering noteworthy changes in the characteristics of many of the forecast fields (such as precipitation) and forecast products regularly used by forecasters and others. These changes are probably more substantial, as a whole, than anything we have seen with any ECMWF cycle in the last 10 years. This page aims to highlight the key differences. It is common forecaster practice to adjust for perceived/known biases or weaknesses in model behaviour, and given the new characteristics application of these ("old") corrections to output from the new cycle may no longer be appropriate. Some such corrections can be discarded or toned down; other new ones may need to be introduced. Most of the changes with 47r3 are attributable to the new "Moist Physics" package, affecting cloud and precipitation in particular. However changes to the visibility and gust diagnostics will also have a substantial impact on occasion. Impacts are listed below, by parameter, with examples generally comparing output from cycle 47r2 (operational until 12 October 2021) and contiguous non-operational runs of 47r3 (operational from 12 October 2021). Unless stated otherwise examples are from HRES. "NEW CYCLE" on plots below means 47r3.

Top 10 warmest first 10 days of October for several of our stations. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.9 0 2 2018-10-10 67.7 0 3 2017-10-10 67.1 0 4 2005-10-10 66.2 0 5 2013-10-10 65.9 0 6 2021-10-10 64.6 0 7 2002-10-10 64.4 0 8 2020-10-10 62.0 0 9 2019-10-10 61.8 0 10 2016-10-10 61.5 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.5 0 2 2018-10-10 68.0 0 3 1990-10-10 66.7 0 4 2017-10-10 66.6 0 5 2013-10-10 65.6 0 6 2005-10-10 65.5 0 7 2021-10-10 63.7 0 8 2002-10-10 63.3 0 9 1995-10-10 63.2 0 10 1997-10-10 63.0 0 - 1983-10-10 63.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 1959-10-10 72.4 0 2 2007-10-10 71.8 0 3 2018-10-10 69.6 0 4 2017-10-10 69.5 0 5 1990-10-10 68.8 0 6 1941-10-10 68.5 0 7 2013-10-10 67.2 0 8 2021-10-10 66.9 0 9 1973-10-10 66.7 0 10 1949-10-10 66.4 0

It looks like the 80s could last into Saturday.

Could see an impressive late season warm up this week with more 80s. The EPAC tropical system phases with the near record Western Trough. This really pumps up the SE Ridge.