bluewave

95° at South Ozone Park in Queens with the lawn really drying out. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Current Conditions at Lefferts / South Ozone Park 11:30 AMNortheast Air Temperature 95°F July 20, 2022 11:25 AM EDT Elevation: 32 feet Relative Humidity: 44% Station Pressure: 29.74″ Snow Depth*: -- Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation 6 hours: 0.00″ 1 day: 0.00″

Updated for the 4.31 at Tarrytown and 4.25 at Fair Lawn which were the highest area rainfall totals. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202207191556-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

This July is continuing the pattern since 2013 of much lower Arctic summer 500 mb heights than the record 2007-2012 dipole era. The unusually cold conditions with low pressure near the North Pole earlier this month shifted over closer to Alaska this week. The trough has set a new record low 500mb height for July in this area. This has resulted in a slowing of the extent decline rates near the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ In terms of air temperature, the first half of July 2022 was a tale of regional contrasts (Figure 2a). On the Eurasian side of the Arctic, particularly in the Laptev and Barents Seas, extending toward the North Pole, air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet about the surface) were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) below average. On the North American side of the Arctic, air temperatures were as much as 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, notably in the southeast Beaufort Sea and the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The sea level pressure pattern was dominated by low pressure over the Laptev Sea sector, centered near the North Pole (Figure 2b). Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since September 2012? https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047 One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 yr ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.

The HRRR and Euro both have 100° potential today around Newark which has been so dry this month.

The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5

Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS on the major heat lasting through at least Sunday. The wildcard for Monday will be the timing of the cold front and severe storms. If the front slows down, then we can tack another day onto the major heatwave. 850 mb temperatures rise to around +20C from Wednesday into Saturday. So the warm spots could easily make a run on 100°. The Euro and GFS have 850 mb temperatures peaking at +22C to +24C by Sunday. This means that places that haven’t reached 100° since 2010-2013 could do it on Sunday. Euro 21z Wednesday 21z Sunday

Ozone Park, Howard Beach, and Brownsville made it to 95° a few minutes ago. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc 95°F

The developing drought area in Central New Jersey has been at or above 90° since the 12th. Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 2022-07-17 89 2022-07-16 91 2022-07-15 90 2022-07-14 92 2022-07-13 93 2022-07-12 93

At least for the first day of the heatwave on Monday, the high temperature at Newark was in line with the other local NJ local stations. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 94 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93

Newark is currently at the 3rd driest July 1 to July 19 on record.This is the first time Newark was so dry at 0.38 while NYC had 3.29. All the previous under .50 periods since 1931 at Newark were also dry in NYC. So another 1st for our more extreme post 2010 climate. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 19 NYC Jul 1 to 19 1 1939-07-19 0.20 0.14 2 1932-07-19 0.25 0.43 3 2022-07-19 0.38 3.29 4 1982-07-19 0.39 0.19 5 1980-07-19 0.40 1.20 6 1966-07-19 0.45 0.61

Southhold finished with 3.33” and picked up 1.00” in 10 min. That may be the heaviest 10 minute total there since the station was set up a few years ago.

This is going be our 8th top 10 warmest July since 2010 at our major climate stations. The previous years were 2020, 2019, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. The last top 10 coolest July in our area was in 2009.

Flash flooding on Eastern LI with 3.33” at Southold. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout

2.68” now with 1.00” in the last 10 minutes.

1.54” at Southhold since 12pm with 1.00” in 20 min. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=sout

Miami dewpoints into the upper 70s here on Long Island. Wantagh N/A 81 77 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 79 78

Dewpoints above 80° in Canada set all-time record in Winnipeg.

The Euro has our warmest week in a while. Temperatures exceed 95° from Tuesday into the weekend. The usual warm spots could also reach 100° on the days with the highest temperatures.

Tropical airmass on Monday with PWATS over 2.00” and dewpoints in the mid 70s to fuel the convection.

DFW is almost tied on the list with 2011 for the most 100° days by July 17th. Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Jan 1 to Jul 17 Missing Count 1 1980-07-17 30 0 2 1998-07-17 25 0 3 2011-07-17 23 0 4 2022-07-17 22 0 5 1978-07-17 18 0 - 1953-07-17 18 0 Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2011 71 0 2 1980 69 0 3 1998 56 0 4 1954 52 0 5 1956 48 0

There was also another recent paper published on the seasonality of Arctic warming.

DMI has a nice discussion about the summer Arctic temperatures near the North Pole since 2002. https://skepticalscience.com/DMI-data-on-Arctic-temperatures-Intermediate.html it seems that a cooling temperature trend in the Arctic summer is present, throughout the past approximately 10 years. Where 'summer' is defined as the period where the +80N mean temperature is above 273K. However, I very much doubt that a simple conclusion can be drawn from that, as there are complicating aspects to that analysis, e.g.: 1) The surface in the +80N area is more or less fully snow and ice covered all year, so the temperature is strongly controlled by the melting temperature of the surface. I.e. the +80N temperature is bound to be very close to the melt point of the surface snow and ice (273K) and the variability is therefore very small, less than 0.5K. I am sure you will find a much clearer warming trend in the same analysis applied to the winter period. The winter period is more crucial for the state of the Arctic sea ice, as this is the period where the ice is produced and the colder the winter the thicker and more robust the sea ice will become. 2) The +80N temperature data after 2002 are based on the operational global deterministic models at ECMWF, at any given time. Before 2002 the ERA 40 reanalysis is used. I.e. the +80N temperatures are based on 4 different models, the model used for the ERA 40 data set and the operational models T511, T799 and T1279. The point is that there can be a temperature bias in one or more of the models, that can cause the lower temperature level since approximately 2002. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

That one hour deluge got them closer to normal July rainfall since the XMACIS records began there in 2012. Monthly Total Precipitation for UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Season Mean 4.22 4.22 2022 3.15 3.15 2021 6.48 6.48 2020 6.32 6.32 2019 2.97 2.97 2018 4.18 4.18 2017 3.22 3.22 2016 3.16 3.16 2015 1.34 1.34 2014 2.78 2.78 2013 4.26 4.26 2012 8.53 8.53

East Setauket was Long Island rainfall leader yesterday at 2.27”. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-76 Station Name: Setauket-East Setauket 0.3 SSE Observation Date 7/17/2022 9:22 AM Submitted 7/17/2022 9:24 AM Gauge Catch 2.27 in. Notes --

The EPS temperature departure forecast for the rest of the month in °C would translate into at least +3 ° to 5° F across the area. So this means that several of our stations will finish with another top 10 warmest July. Since July is one of our fastest warming months, the bar for top 10 has been lowered when looking at the new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. Below are the necessary departures for our local stations to reach top 10 warmest July average temperatures. The numbers to the right are the current departures ahead of the warm up. EWR…+2.2…..+3.4 NYC...+2.1…….+1.1 LGA….+1.4….+0.6 JFK…..+1.9…..+1.5 HPN….+2.0…..+1.5 ISP……+0.9…..+0.2 BDR….+1.3……+0.2