bluewave

The average for your area is around 40” since 2010. It was around half that much from 1980 to 2000. So who knows what is average snowfall anymore. Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season Mean 0.3 1.1 5.9 12.0 13.8 6.1 0.5 T 39.7 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 20.8 4.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 27.7 2020-2021 T T 10.0 3.1 30.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.8 2019-2020 0.0 T 5.5 4.6 T T T T 10.1 2018-2019 0.0 5.8 0.5 1.2 3.6 13.5 0.0 0.0 24.6 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 8.7 11.4 5.3 14.5 6.0 0.0 45.9 2016-2017 T T 6.0 11.0 12.8 11.1 0.0 0.0 40.9 2015-2016 T 0.0 0.7 10.3 13.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 27.3 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 0.7 18.7 21.5 18.6 T 0.0 59.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.1 10.9 13.4 32.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 8.4 7.8 4.7 30.4 13.0 0.0 0.0 64.3 2011-2012 4.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 2.2 T T 0.0 13.6 2010-2011 0.0 0.4 12.0 42.0 5.0 3.2 T 0.0 62.6 2009-2010 T 0.0 13.4 7.7 16.9 0.1 T 0.0 38.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season Mean 0.0 0.7 3.3 7.0 6.2 4.2 1.2 0.0 22.6 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 6.5 5.7 0.1 1.0 0.0 13.3 1998-1999 0.0 M 1.1 6.2 3.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 19.9 1997-1998 0.0 T 6.7 1.7 T 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.9 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.0 3.8 2.1 3.8 4.0 0.0 14.7 1995-1996 0.0 2.6 13.8 20.5 16.8 10.2 11.8 0.0 75.7 1994-1995 0.0 T T 1.3 8.0 T T 0.0 9.3 1993-1994 0.0 0.0 1.9 17.3 27.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 55.0 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.3 9.5 13.7 0.0 0.0 28.9 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 10.2 0.0 0.0 16.5 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.1 6.3 5.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 22.0 1989-1990 0.0 6.6 4.1 5.2 9.3 4.4 1.7 0.0 31.3 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 7.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 13.0 1987-1988 0.5 0.9 1.8 15.5 2.1 2.1 T 0.0 22.9 1986-1987 0.0 1.8 3.3 11.4 2.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 22.1 1985-1986 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.0 11.0 T T 0.0 17.5 1984-1985 0.0 T 1.5 11.2 6.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 19.7 1983-1984 0.0 T 0.6 11.6 T 8.4 0.0 0.0 20.6 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.1 14.2 T 0.5 0.0 23.0 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 3.1 9.0 T 1.6 6.0 0.0 19.7 1980-1981 0.0 1.0 3.6 5.4 T 1.5 0.0 0.0 11.5 1979-1980 T 0.0 0.9 0.7 1.7 6.3 0.0 0.0 9.6

The past stratospheric analogs may not be as useful this time due to the Hunga Tunga eruption. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100982 While the stratosphere (15–55 km) region of the atmosphere contains the ozone layer, it is typically very dry, especially when compared to the troposphere. However, the remarkable eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano on 15 January 2022 injected a record amount of water directly into the stratosphere. Winds in the stratospheric soon carried this excess water vapor around the globe to all longitudes and spread the water vapor in latitude as well. Since water vapor can cool to space more rapidly than the stratospheric air, enhanced cooling in the stratosphere is expected. This study quantifies this cooling, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption. The extreme nature of the stratospheric temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the first six months of 2022 with the previous 42 years. Details of the stratospheric perturbations in latitude and pressure are presented for June 2022, where anomalously low temperatures are found at near 20 km altitude from 60 to 30°S. In response to this cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating strong westerly winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

But we are getting a -NAO pattern into early December. So the stronger SPV isn’t able to propagate downward into the troposphere. Our pattern will again come down to how much cooperation we can get from the Pacific.

We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska.

Very fast Pacific Jet with a storm cutting through the lakes every few days into early December.

Models have been in full push back mode recently. The upper upper low in SW that was supposed to come through Friday is delayed even more. Yesterday the models had a early Sunday passage. Now the morning looks dry with a later day or evening for the storm to come through. Maybe the high temperatures can overperform with 60° possible on Long Island. 12 Wednesday run 12z Tuesday run

We’ll probably need another week or so to see if they hold. The EPS has the best looking early December pattern we have seen in a while. But the model skill recently has been very low even at 5 days so we have to be patient on this one.

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

We can always get +PNA intervals during a La Niña winter. This was the case through much of the 20-21 winter and January 22. But last winter we had the record -PNA reversal from December to January and the NAO didn’t play ball. So Long Island cashed in with record snows while the flow was too progressive west of NYC.

The CMC went from a 959 mb low in New England on Saturday to a suppressed system and no storm in one run. Similar reversal on the GFS. The Euro seems to be slowly backing away from the stronger solution at 6z as the southern stream low lags behind. So this could be one of the worst model performances of the year so far.

I can’t remember the last time that all 3 models were so different at 5 days out. The CMC and GFS squash the southern stream with no wave break to pump the -NAO into early December. The Euro and EPS have a more amplified southern stream storm resulting in a wave break and stronger -NAO into early December. There was a strong storm at the end of November 2020 causing a wave break which flipped the -NAO going into December with 60-70 mph gusts on Long Island.

The 0z Euro is the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point.

All our major snows since 2011 in November and December have been during the first 20 days of both months. Plus we can throw in 2011 for the record snow in late October. There haven’t been any major snow events from 11-21 to 11-30 and 12-21 to 12-31. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 28 to Nov 20 Missing Count 2021-11-20 T 0 2020-11-20 0.0 0 2019-11-20 0.0 0 2018-11-20 6.4 0 2017-11-20 T 0 2016-11-20 T 0 2015-11-20 0.0 0 2014-11-20 T 0 2013-11-20 T 0 2012-11-20 4.7 0 2011-11-20 2.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30 Missing Count 2021-11-30 T 0 2020-11-30 0.0 0 2019-11-30 0.0 0 2018-11-30 T 0 2017-11-30 0.0 0 2016-11-30 0.0 0 2015-11-30 0.0 0 2014-11-30 0.2 0 2013-11-30 T 0 2012-11-30 T 0 2011-11-30 0.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 20 Missing Count 2021-12-20 T 0 2020-12-20 10.5 0 2019-12-20 2.5 0 2018-12-20 T 0 2017-12-20 7.0 0 2016-12-20 3.2 0 2015-12-20 0.0 0 2014-12-20 1.0 0 2013-12-20 8.6 0 2012-12-20 0.0 0 2011-12-20 0.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 31 Missing Count 2021-12-31 0.2 0 2020-12-31 0.0 0 2019-12-31 T 0 2018-12-31 T 0 2017-12-31 0.7 0 2016-12-31 T 0 2015-12-31 T 0 2014-12-31 T 0 2013-12-31 T 0 2012-12-31 0.4 0 2011-12-31 0.0 0

The strong winds broke the radiational cooling inversion so BNL jumped 10°+ in under 30 minutes.

I believe the only lower reading was the -504 EPO around Christmas 1983.

Looks like the -428 EPO was one of the most negative readings for any time of the year. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Report of some graupel mixing in with the heavier snow squalls. Serious flurries & BIG graupel outside Marksboro, Warren Co., NJ. Never saw graupel almost the size of peas!

First snow squall warning of the day in Central PA as the bands take shape and head for our area this evening.

Around 38° may be the magic number for getting snow showers this evening across the area. Could be some localized heavy snow bursts with the mesos indicating surface based cape. WSW flow could add some ocean enhancement to the snow across parts of LI that are away from the warmer immediate beaches which could stay as rain at 40°. Simulated radar loops looking unusually convective for late November. So a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

The storm track in about a week will probably come down to how amplified the system is. The OP Euro was more amplified so the low cuts to our west and goes negative tilt. The ensemble mean was more positive tilt with the trough so the low takes more of a coastal track. Sometimes the ensembles smooth things out too much longer range. So we still don’t know if this will be cutter, hugger, or coastal track. The other possibility is that we get a primary crossing the lakes and the secondary gets going too late and favors New England.

I think the OP run was holding the energy back too long in the SW so it squashed the southern stream. The EPS had a bunch of nice coastal hits among the 50 members as the low ejects faster than the OP. Looks similar to the GEPS. We just don’t want such a quick ejection that the the low ends up hugging the coast like the GFS or cuts like the OP GEM. But a genuine storm signal of some type is there.

Pretty good coastal signal on the day 8-9 EPS.

First snow showers/squalls of the season here Friday evening.

December will probably come down to how the WP warm pool influences the MJO. The cold pattern coming up and record -EPO is a rough match for MJO 6 in November. We need the MJO to continue into 7 to maintain that -EPO into December. The EPS now gets us to phase 7 in early December. The duration of the -NAO this time of year is tricky since it can depend on wave breaks to keep it going. Those are outside the range of the longer range guidance. So we want to keep the Pacific as favorable as possible since it’s has such a big influence on our weather.

It’s very extreme to get a 581 dm ridge in Alaska during November.