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bluewave

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  1. You don’t get to dictate to me or anyone else what the precise format is for issuing long range weather forecasts. You realize in the industry that beating the 6-10, 11-15, and week 3 forecasts is a big accomplishment. Just getting the directional theme of the winter vs what the models are showing is a big win. So I am very happy how last winter worked out from my forecast perspective. Your amateurish posting style detracts from understanding what you are trying to convey beyond the insult comic schtick.
  2. You continuously come on here with these snarky gotcha-style posts which misquote me. I was discussing with you how the mismatch analogs were colder and not warmer than what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for last winter. And that the mismatch years had significant differences from 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. The common thread was the PNA mismatch and not a specific snowfall or temperature outcome. But I will chalk it up to misdirected anger on your part at how bad the winters have been in Boston since the 2018-2019. It’s still a very bad look on your part and a few other posters. We have seen numerous examples in recent years how these current patterns have become warmer and less snowy than when a similar process like a mismatch occurred in the old days. I use a data driven approach to seasonal forecasting and release more specific outcomes when the data presents itself. My first call from last October was that it would be more of a +PNA mismatch than the models were calling for. This turned out to be correct. But I had to wait until the winter got underway to see the exact magnitude which was record breaking. Extremes like that are very tough to get ahead of time. So I was just happy to get the directional trend correct and let the finer details work themselves out. Next I posted my snowfall outlook in December when that early indicator pointed toward another below average season. So I was correct to say back in October that there were other factors working against snowfall and temperature outcomes of the previous mismatch years. But the magnitude of how much warmer and especially less snowy than previous mismatch winters would become took time to unfold. In the old days, a La Niña mismatch winter like 2024-2025 would have become a slam dunk cold and snowy winter. But the climate has warmed so much since the 15-16 and 22-23 baseline jumps, that these old patterns repeat as a significantly weaker reflection. This is why I added the mention back last October how there were other big differences. Mainly the rapid expansion of marine heatwaves and subtropical ridges muting favorable responses.
  3. While you and I would consider any winter averaging 9.1° in NYC or DTW pretty darn cold, it was still a +0.4 winter for INL against the warmest 91-20 climate normals and a +1.9 against the long term average with several missing years in the old days. But that long term +1.9° is exactly the same as the U.S. long term this past winter of +1.9°. So the local INL conditions were proportional to the wider national average.
  4. The NWS in Upton uses dense rank sorting for their ranking by temperatures. It’s a more accurate way of ranking since it doesn’t skip places like rank sorting. So 34.8° is the 37th warmest winter average temperature without skipping places or the 57th warmest if you skip places. The long term average winter temperature in NYC from 1868-1869 to 2024-2025 is 33.8°. So the 34.8° last winter was +1.0° against the long term average. It was only about -0.9 lower than the U.S. average long term departure of +1.9° for the CONUS. So NYC was fairly representative to what the CONUS experienced. I fully understand why many thought last winter was so much colder than it actually was. First, it was significantly colder than the record warm 22-23 and 23-24 winters. Second, the average winter wind gusts were among the highest on record around NYC Metro. So the wind chill factors were lower than the actual temperatures.
  5. For an individual location like NYC, 34.8° for DJF was the 37th warmest winter average temperatures using dense rank sorting for temperature. The CONUS averaged 34.07° and 27th warmest. In this case NYC was representative of the country for the winter of 2024-2025. So your statement about the national average having nothing to do with individual locations is incorrect.
  6. My first forecast discussion for the winter of 2024-2025 occurred after I saw the high amplitude MJO 5 back in October. It’s in the ENSO 2024-2025 thread on 10-26-24 and page #145. We were discussing my post. The mismatch years I was discussing last October were 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11, due to the high amplitude La Niña October MJO 5 those years. But for snowfall I mentioned that there were other different factors going in which weren’t present those years. After I saw the lower December snowfall indicator around NYC, I went below average for seasonal snowfall last December. This turned out to be correct. The mismatch in my early discussion season turned out to be accurate as it was one of the strongest +PNA La Niña winters ever observed. But I never came out with a temperature forecast prior to the winter. If you want to take my previous mismatch years of 20-21, 17-18 and 10-11,will compare how those worked out compared 24-25. La Niña mismatch winters since 15-16 and winter average temperature 2024-2025….34.07°……#27 warmest 2020-2021…..33.64°…..#34 warmest 2017-2018……33.99°…..#29 warmest 2010-2011…….31.74°……#49 warmest So 2024-2025 turned out to be warmer and not cooler like you mentioned. I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast. But if I did, my winter forecast for the CONUS would have been a little too cold , but not that far off from the mismatch reality. Below is the NOAA recap of winter and the ranking map. https://www.noaa.gov/news/despite-arctic-air-outbreaks-us-had-warm-dry-winter-on-average#:~:text=Meteorological winter (December 2024 – February,second-warmest February on record. Despite Arctic air outbreaks, U.S. had warm, dry winter on average
  7. I am not sure what you mean by using the term nebulous and obfuscate. The issue with relying on modern standards based on 30 year climate means are that they are continuously getting warmer every 10 years. So the bar is lower for defining a colder winter. A departure isn’t the actual temperature. My whole point by using long term rankings back to 1895 is that it’s a fixed number which everyone can relate to. The 3 month average last winter was in no way shape or form considered cold for the CONUS. It was the 27th warmest winter on record for the CONUS at 34.07°. But I agree with you that is was a cold January overall for the CONUS at 33rd coldest and 29.21°. The temperatures rebounded in February to 34.81° or 54th warmest. But there were still some localized cold pockets out West in February. The storm track for NYC last winter was very warm. On the 11 days which .25 or more of precipitation fell the average temperature was 41.0°. This is why the snowfall was so low again continuing the pattern since 2018-2019. The climate periods with similar temperatures going back to the 1970s had very distinct average temperatures across the CONUS and various regions. The first period from 1895 to 1982 had a much colder temperature range. So during each succeeding climate period the coldest winter have been getting warmer at a slightly faster pace than the warmest winters have been getting warmer. This recent 10 winter year period since 2015-2016 has been unprecedented in the modern climate history of the CONUS. There has been no 10 winter period this warm. This is especially the case when looking at how fast the coldest winters have been warming. Coldest winters by decade 2020s so far….33.64° 2010s…………..30.70° 2000s…………..31.26° 1990s……………31.80° 1980s…………...30.56° 1970s……………26.62° 1960s……………30.65° 1950s……………31.44° 1940s……………30.14° 1930s…………...27.78° 1920s…………...28.73°
  8. While the high temperature rankings have been impressive over the last month, the record high dew points have made the low temperature rankings even higher. The Hudson Valley is ranked 4th for warmest highs last month. But the whole area is top 2-3 warmest for the lows.
  9. Could be some waterspouts off the Long Island and Jersey Shore with rotation and SSTs near 80°. 15 E Barnegat Li 0930 78 78
  10. Last December was the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. While January had decent pockets of cold especially for posters further south, it was only the 27th coldest January on record for the CONUS. Sure for the 2020s it was considered a colder month, but prior to this decade we had many much colder Januaries. Plus we warmed back up in February again. The 2024-2025 winter was among our colder winter for the 2020s so far. But against the long term average it actually ranked as the 27th warmest for the CONUS since 1895 at 34.07°. Right before the 2015-2016 global and regional temperature jump was our last top 40 coldest winter in 2013-2014 coming in at the 32nd coldest with an average temperature of 31.25° 2009-2010 came in even colder at 30.70° and 22nd coldest. This was the coldest winter after the baseline jump in temperatures in 1997-1998. Prior to this baseline jump the coldest winter was 1984-1985 at the 18th coldest with an average of 30.56° Our first baseline increase following the stable 1895 to 1982 climate regime with only a gentle warming occurred in 1982-1983. Prior to this our coldest winter was 1978-1979 ranked #1 coldest since 1895 at 26.62°. It was our last top 10 coldest winter in the CONUS. So we have seen a steady rise in CONUS winter temperatures following each successive baseline rise since 1982-1983. The magnitude of the baseline jumps has also been increasing since 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. This is why the current 10 winter period for the CONUS has been the warmest on record. So the impressive monthly Arctic outbreaks like during the 2020-2021 winters and 2018-2019 winters were more regionally focused instead of CONUS wide during earlier baseline periods. Even the January 2025 Arctic outbreak was more regionally focused. The most significant monthly cold anomaly was February 2021 ranking the 19th coldest February. But regionally it was more impressive focused into the Plains at the 9th coldest February. The winter overall wasn’t that cold due to how warm December and January were.
  11. You are yet to point out any bias in my posts. I agree with you that everyone doesn’t care about the warming. But if you want to make a decent forecast of any kind, then you need to understand how these significant and frequent baseline temperature jumps have been influencing the sensible winter weather. Since the sensible weather at any given global climate era in Earths long history has been a function of the baseline temperature regimes of those eras. You mention bullying. But it’s Ironic that you have used the most harsh language and displayed an angry demeanor with anyone that disagrees with you on these forums. I respectfully disagree with some posts and provide data as to my thinking. All you seem to do is hurl insults. What you call lecturing is a discussion of the actual weather we have been experiencing. But I will chalk this up to not actually meeting in person and perhaps is a bit of a keyboard warrior schtick on your part. I would bet we could have some more civil conversations if I met you at one of the conferences. Since sometimes people get the wrong idea without actually meeting in person. As to last winter, I was anticipating the mismatch as early as last October. So the NYC temperatures verified to the warm side of past mismatch instances. But I pointed this out this in my early season analysis. The winter average temperature in NYC this past season was close to the average before the baseline jumps of recent decades. So it wasn’t anywhere near as cold as some of the great winters were prior to the baseline jump in 15-16.
  12. Yeah, but it also goes beyond the opposite SST pattern in 13-14 to what we have today. That winter was also the function of a colder climate era before the big baseline temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-24. So even a complete reversal of the Pacific pattern at some point in the future probably wouldn’t yield an outcome as cold or snowy. Plus the Northern Hemisphere cold pool during the winters have become so small, that the 500mb ridges would be more expansive and troughs smaller than 13-14. We would need a major volcanic eruption to ever see a repeat of winters like 1975-1976, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015. This is why I don’t like using those analogs since they were products of much colder background states. Last December I didn’t think that some talk of a 2013-2014 ABNA style pattern repeating would be supported by this warmer climate. This turned out to be correct.
  13. I posted it for the general continuing theme of at least some stations experiencing measurable rainfall on the weekends. They haven’t done an official update yet so that is their most recent chart showing the long term pattern in general across the region. If the smaller local was included, then it would show the continuation. A few spots picked some measurable rainfall that weekend along with more last weekend. But the amounts were very light indicating no washout. Data for July 5, 2025 through July 6, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.03 NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS T NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN T Data for July 12, 2025 through July 13, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.04 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 0.03 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.03 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.03 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.02 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.02 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 0.02 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.02 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.02 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT GUILFORD COOP 0.01 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.01 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01 NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 0.01 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.01 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 0.01 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.01 NY SYOSSET COOP 0.01
  14. The best beach days continue to be during the week. The next 95°-100° warm up looks like it will be Thursday and Friday with more rain chances again next weekend. But the one good thing is that there have been very few weekend washouts.
  15. You seem to have a very selective memory when it comes to posts and discussions in these various threads. What usually happens is that I discuss a forecast and pattern and add perspective to my post. I discuss how the individual forecast period or pattern relates to the greater pattern on the whole. Including weather history in the post adds an extra dimension which helps to explain and bring the pattern to life for the reader. But you and some other posters will frequently respond with a post like your local area is different and it isn’t warming like the other areas are. Then I dig into the weather history for your local area and show that the pattern and trend is pretty much the same as other areas are. It’s you and other posters trying to claim that you live in an area which somehow seems to be defying the rest of the world’s trends or that it’s all just UHI. If you didn’t try to claim that your area is somehow different from the other areas that I am discussing, then these threads wouldn’t keep going off topic. Since local weather and climate patterns are driven by broader global ones. It isn’t fair that you are trying to shut down a discussion that stems from a comment that you made. Look, I get it that some people don’t enjoy the fact that the earth is warming. So it’s a natural defense mechanism to not acknowledge it. But this narrow perspective is incomplete and leads to less reliable forecasts based on climate states and patterns which no longer exist. The other issue is that some posters view weather and climate through a political prism. This inevitably leads to a distorted perspective since a political belief is separate from issues dealing with the natural world like weather and climate. You will notice that I never bring up politics or policy perspectives. This is due to the fact that I am not really a political person. So you have to understand that recognizing the fact that the world is warming and it’s affecting our sensible weather on many levels doesn’t mean that I am advocating for any specific policies or programs. Since it’s up to each individual what types of policies they they want which is outside the scope of these threads.
  16. The WAA actually peaked around 8-10 pm for the day with +20°C 850s arriving late. So we got that combined with downsloping and drying. It allowed the earlier low max at ISP to hold at 79°. That was the 3rd warmest low max ever at ISP. Warmest Low Maximum Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 81 2 2006 80 3 2025 79 - 2019 79 - 2013 79
  17. Looks like a strong sea breeze especially South Shore. The 95°-100° heat potential later next week will probably be focused more in NJ. This doesn’t look as widespread or as warm as the late June record 100° to 105° warmth. So especially for spots like JFK, the late June heatwave will remain the strongest of the summer so far.
  18. It’s good that they have a continuous record at Ann Arbor since it shows a similar long term trend is Wayne County. The NCDC takes into account station moves like Detroit compared to the rest of the county. As you said, January has seen the slowest warming since 1895. But December and February have warmed at a faster pace. This makes sense since the falls have also been warming. So it takes longer for winter to get started and the winters across the U.S. are getting shorter with more warming in February. December +4.3°/Century January +2.0°F/Century February +5.1°F/Century
  19. We have only had one October really amplified MJO 5-6 during each multiyear La Niña going back to 2010. October 2024…+2.76…October 2020…+2.81….October 2017…+3.35….October 2010….+2.88. The other La Niña years surrounding these in each group had a weaker October MJO in 5-6 like in 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. So the more amplified October years featured La Niña +PNA mismatches. With the exception of last year, these were very snowy winters. But the WPAC pattern and Pacific Jet never relaxed last winter like all the previous mismatch winters did. This is what I was pointing out last year why I mentioned early on that there were competing influences which didn’t exist during the other winters. So not to expect the same type of outcome. So this would be a first time occurrence if the MJO 5 peaked again this October in the +2.76 to +3.35 range. Seems like it’s some type of fall forcing event which affects the winter PNA during La Ninas. It’s why my guess a few months back that this 25-26 winter will be warmer than last winter was with the PNA averaging less positive than last winter did. But since the snowfall was so low last winter, it wouldn’t take much for one decent snow event to surpass last seasons snowfall totals from around Philly to Boston. Plus it’s possible that we could get a least one winter month with a decent +PNA like we saw in January 2022 even though the PNA was strongly negative in December tilting the whole winter -PNA. That was largely driven by the MJO 8. January 2022 was the last winter month around NYC which was both cold and snowy especially Long Island. We have also seen very impressive 500 ridges in Canada since the 2023-2024 El Niño generally boosting the +PNA. So we’ll have to wait for the October verification this year to know if it will be like past multiyear La Ninas following the mismatch winters like we had in 2024-2025. Always have to leave open the possibility of a first time occurrence with back to back mismatch events. But this hasn’t happened yet since 2010.
  20. Narrowly focused into the Bay Area in an otherwise sea of warm across the Northern Hemisphere this summer.
  21. It’s part of the record subtropical ridge expansion this decade across the Northern Hemisphere.
  22. Yes. I get the humor involved. Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade. Just taking note of the pattern and where it has gone in the recent past with these persistent base states across the mid-latitudes.
  23. I like to use the PDO as a marker or gauge of what the 500mb pattern is doing. Since it’s being driven during the 2020s by these extreme 500 mb ridges across the Pacific leading to similar ridging across the U.S. across the Atlantic. So the strong -PDO is more indicative of the record warm SSTs than the cold ones in the old days. Sometimes during the cold season we see an October -PDO peak like in 2024 and 2021. Then a rebound heading into both winters. But it’s a signal that a very strong subtropical 500mb ridge may occur in the following months. While we had the strong -PDO mismatch last December, there was a very strong subtropical ridge from near Hawaii right into the Western Gulf. So last December was the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. Back in 2021 we had the October -PDO peak which rose off those lows into December. But it was a signal that the 500 mb ridge driving the -PDO was very robust. This is when we had the record breaking Aleutian Ridge that December leading to the 2nd warmest December on record for the CONUS.
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