bluewave

The bar on March has been set pretty low this decade. This is the first decade so far with under 1” average from Philly to Boston. Elevation has been the key as the coastal plain has been too warm. Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 T T 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 0.0 0.0 2020 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 T T 2024 T T 2023 0.9 0.9 2022 2.1 2.1 2021 0.1 0.1 2020 T T

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2024 33 0 - 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0

Yes. The most extreme rainfall event if that era was in August 1843. There are some accounts of them calling it the great flood of 1843. 1843-08-05 74 61 67.5 -10.1 0 3 15.00 The coldest winter of that era was 1867-1868 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1903-1904 24.7 0 - 1867-1868 24.7 23 2 1917-1918 25.0 17 3 1904-1905 25.3 1 4 1892-1893 25.4 40 5 1872-1873 25.7 17 6 1874-1875 26.2 13 7 1919-1920 26.7 25 8 1880-1881 27.0 15 9 1935-1936 27.1 0 - 1855-1856 27.1 11 10 1976-1977 27.6 0 The global temperatures were still cold enough in 1982 just before the baseline rise in 1983 for the most impressive April cold and snow going back to 1843. So the climate in the late 70s and early 80s wasn’t that far removed from the cold of the mid 1800s. The low max at Newark of 30° following the April blizzard still stands to this day beating anything from that era. Plus the 12.0” of snow on 4-6-82 is still the latest foot of snow ever recorded at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 1 5 1919 34 2 - 1896 34 1 - 1874 34 1 - 1868 34 1 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1982 04-06 (1982) 12.8 02-11 (1983) 14.0 310 1915 04-03 (1915) 15.8 - - - 1956 03-19 (1956) 12.7 - - - 1852 03-17 (1852) 12.0 - - - 1941 03-08 (1941) 12.0 - - - 1960 03-03 (1960) 12.5 12-12 (1960) 16.7 283

Yeah, 1867-1868 was their 2nd snowiest winter behind 1995-1996. But they often waited until after the snow ended to measure back in those days rather than the more frequent measurements of today before compaction. So it’s possible that 1995-1996 would have been eclipsed if they measured as frequently as we do today. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1995-1996 78.4 0 2 1867-1868 74.8 0 3 1960-1961 73.5 0 4 1872-1873 71.7 1 5 1906-1907 70.2 94 6 2010-2011 68.2 0 7 1977-1978 64.9 0 8 1993-1994 64.5 0 9 1898-1899 63.5 4 - 1866-1867 63.5 0 10 1851-1852 63.3 0 11 2013-2014 61.1 0 12 1853-1854 60.8 31 13 1919-1920 60.6 30 14 1957-1958 58.3 0 15 1855-1856 57.8 0 16 1922-1923 57.4 154 17 1966-1967 57.3 0 18 1874-1875 56.5 31 19 1915-1916 56.2 31 20 1904-1905 55.1 0 21 2002-2003 53.1 0 22 1892-1893 52.8 34 23 1856-1857 52.0 0 24 1947-1948 51.0 2 25 1862-1863 50.2 0 26 1916-1917 50.1 30 - 1861-1862 50.1 0

This has been a top 5 warmest summer so far for low temperatures across the region at most of our stations. Several stations have made the top 5 for highs including mine. It’s what we get with the dew points near the highest on record for the month of July. If the week 3 forecasts continue to verify warmer than the EPS heading into August, then this could finish as one of the warmest summers on record for low temperatures.

The extensive grassy areas surrounding the Tweed HVN airport have turned brown over the last few weeks. It has been the 8th driest June 1st to July 23rd on record here with under 3.00” of rain. Combine that with the 4th highest average high temperature to enhance the drying. Plus the 98° max during this period here was the 3rd warmest temperature ever recorded here. We have been seeing very little balance with our rainfall patterns. Some areas have had extreme flooding with other areas seeing very little. While we have been in an overall much wetter pattern last 20-25 years, many times we are getting the rainfall all at once rather than spread out. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1957-07-23 1.94 0 2 1949-07-23 2.10 0 3 1954-07-23 2.18 0 4 2016-07-23 2.34 0 5 1976-07-23 2.45 0 6 2017-07-23 2.46 3 7 1966-07-23 2.78 0 8 2025-07-23 2.94 0 9 2022-07-23 3.08 0 10 2014-07-23 3.22 1 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1977-07-23 84.5 31 2 2024-07-23 83.7 0 3 2010-07-23 82.9 0 4 2025-07-23 82.7 0 5 2013-07-23 82.6 0 6 2022-07-23 82.2 0 7 2020-07-23 82.1 0 8 2019-07-23 81.7 0 9 2008-07-23 81.4 0 10 2012-07-23 81.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 101 0 2 2010 100 0 - 1957 100 2 - 1948 100 1 3 2025 98 161

July 1993 was memorable especially in NJ for the number of stations with an average high temperature of 90° and higher. July 2022 was the most recent version of this in NJ. But July 2010 and 2011 have the most number of stations at 90° and above. This July so far has been more about the record dew points keeping the low temperatures up. So the 90° average highs this month aren’t as impressive as some past years. Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WAYNE COOP 93.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.2 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 90.9 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 90.7 CRANFORD COOP 90.7 LODI COOP 90.5 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 90.4 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 90.3 Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.1 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 CANOE BROOK COOP 91.4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 HARRISON COOP 91.0 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.5 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.5 Monthly Data for July 2010 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 92.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.1 CANOE BROOK COOP 91.7 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 91.6 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 Trenton Area ThreadEx 91.4 MARGATE COOP 91.3 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 91.3 PLAINFIELD COOP 91.2 CRANFORD COOP 91.0 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.9 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.9 RINGWOOD COOP 90.9 HARRISON COOP 90.8 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 90.6 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 90.5 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 90.5 SANDY HOOK COOP 90.5 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 90.5 ESTELL MANOR COOP 90.5 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 90.3 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.2 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90.2 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 90.1 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 90.1 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.0 Monthly Data for July 2011 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 92.6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.5 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.5 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 91.8 Trenton Area ThreadEx 91.8 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 91.6 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 91.4 PLAINFIELD COOP 91.4 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 91.4 HARRISON COOP 91.3 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 91.2 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 91.1 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 91.1 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 91.0 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.8 ESTELL MANOR COOP 90.7 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 90.5 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 90.5 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 90.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.2 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.2 BOUND BROOK 2W COOP 90.1 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 90.0 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.0 Monthly Data for July 2025 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.8 SALEM COOP 90.5 HARRISON COOP 90.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 90.0 Newark Area ThreadEx 90.0

1995-1996 is still is unsurpassed for wall to wall cold and snow from late November right into early April. Getting 80” to 90” of snow on Long Island was epic. Probably the most perfect balance of long duration sustained cold and great snowstorms. While 2002-2003 was still great, it was an overall weaker reflection of 1995-1996. For short term snowfall intensity combined with short term sustained cold I would rank 12-26-10 to 1-27 -11 the best little over a month winter period with some spots getting 60”. If we could have found a way to sustain that for more than that short period, then we could have beaten 1995-1996. While I am extremely grateful for 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, it would have been nice if we could have surpassed 1995-1996. DC to Philly set their all-time snowiest season in 2009-2010. With Boston putting up their best in 2014-2015. Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 92.0 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 86.2 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 84.0 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 83.1 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 80.7 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 80.0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 78.8 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 77.9 MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 77.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 77.1 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 75.6 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 69.9 OCEANSIDE COOP 69.0 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.0

That was a great late season higher elevation special. https://www.nytimes.com/1983/04/20/nyregion/spring-snowstorm-disrupts-schools-and-traffic.html WAYNE, N.J., April 19 - Drifts of snow, chilling sleet and heavy rain hit northern New Jersey today, dumping 15 inches of snow at Budd Lake in Morris County and 10 inches in Hackettstown in Warren County. Six inches of snow fell at Gladstone in Somerset County and four inches in Newton in Sussex County, according to the National Weather Service.

Yeah, 1982-1983 was one of my favorite winters for that February 1983 snowstorm. The early model runs were keeping the heaviest snows down closer to Philly. Then it shifted north right before the storm. It was one of the few storms that came in as a wall of heavy snow right from the start. I was in class right before it started and it was just overcast with a dark sky to the south and brighter to the north just before 1pm. Then right as we were getting dismissed closer to 2 it was snowing very heavily. One of my favorite walks home from the LB High school in heavy snow.

While it was a very wet spring and the rain gauge in Central Park was broken, a very strong summer drought develped in the Midwest to the East in 1983. One of the strongest Great Lakes ridges pretty much shut off the sea breeze. So extended westerly flow. If we ever saw this type of pattern from June into September in this much warmer climate, then I would expect 100° heat even to JFK as late as mid-September.

2010 only had 100° heat in July. So 1993 was the last time Newark had 100° heat during all 3 summer months. Last summer Harrison had 100° heat all 3 months away from the sea breeze. So I suppose it’s still possible that somebody away from the sea breeze in NJ could make another run on 100° in August. Especially if the EPS underestimation of the long range temperatures beyond 15 days continues in the East. So the current models could be underestimating the warm up potential beyond the first week of August. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 98 M 103 2021 101 100 99 101 2012 101 103 95 103 2024 100 101 100 101

July 1859 was probably the most comfortable one from that era with only 2 days reaching 90° and 10 days with lows in the 50s. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - July 1859 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 2358 1869 - - 7 176 4.03 0.0 Average 78.6 62.3 70.6 -7.6 - - - 1859-07-01 74 54 64.0 -13.0 1 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-02 85 63 74.0 -3.2 0 9 0.72 0.0 1859-07-03 80 M M M M M 0.17 0.0 1859-07-04 M 54 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-07-05 69 52 60.5 -17.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-06 73 53 63.0 -14.8 2 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-07 77 56 66.5 -11.4 0 2 0.00 0.0 1859-07-08 79 63 71.0 -7.1 0 6 0.00 0.0 1859-07-09 82 64 73.0 -5.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 1859-07-10 81 63 72.0 -6.2 0 7 0.00 0.0 1859-07-11 86 65 75.5 -2.8 0 11 0.00 0.0 1859-07-12 91 70 80.5 2.1 0 16 0.00 0.0 1859-07-13 92 75 83.5 5.1 0 19 0.60 0.0 1859-07-14 84 70 77.0 -1.5 0 12 0.00 0.0 1859-07-15 78 67 72.5 -6.0 0 8 T 0.0 1859-07-16 67 66 66.5 -12.0 0 2 2.20 0.0 1859-07-17 83 64 73.5 -5.0 0 9 0.00 0.0 1859-07-18 84 69 76.5 -2.0 0 12 0.00 0.0 1859-07-19 74 71 72.5 -6.0 0 8 0.17 0.0 1859-07-20 84 67 75.5 -3.0 0 11 0.02 0.0 1859-07-21 76 62 69.0 -9.5 0 4 0.00 0.0 1859-07-22 77 65 71.0 -7.5 0 6 0.15 0.0 1859-07-23 73 64 68.5 -9.9 0 4 0.00 0.0 1859-07-24 75 55 65.0 -13.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-25 77 55 66.0 -12.3 0 1 0.00 0.0 1859-07-26 78 68 73.0 -5.3 0 8 T 0.0 1859-07-27 74 57 65.5 -12.7 0 1 0.00 0.0 1859-07-28 76 57 66.5 -11.7 0 2 0.00 0.0 1859-07-29 77 58 67.5 -10.6 0 3 0.00 0.0 1859-07-30 79 61 70.0 -8.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 1859-07-31 73 61 67.0 -11.0 0 2 0.00 0.0

They just updated the Newark weather records back to 1843. The average July temperature was 73.7° during the 1840s and 1850s. It has been 80.3° since 2010. July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 73.8 73.7 1843 73.0 73.0 1844 72.8 72.8 1845 74.3 74.3 1846 72.7 72.7 1847 74.5 74.5 1848 72.0 72.0 1849 73.9 73.9 1850 75.5 75.5 1851 74.3 74.3 1852 74.3 74.3 1853 73.5 73.5 1854 75.8 75.8 1855 74.9 74.9 1856 76.2 76.2 1857 71.9 71.9 1858 73.5 73.5 1859 70.6 70.6 July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 80.3 80.3 2010 82.3 82.3 2011 82.7 82.7 2012 80.8 80.8 2013 80.9 80.9 2014 77.0 77.0 2015 79.0 79.0 2016 79.9 79.9 2017 77.3 77.3 2018 78.2 78.2 2019 80.6 80.6 2020 80.8 80.8 2021 78.8 78.8 2022 82.6 82.6 2023 80.6 80.6 2024 81.3 81.3 2025 81.4 81.4

The record high dew points have produced the top 5 warmest low temperatures since June 20th from the Midwest to the East Coast.

It’s really cool that they just updated the Newark area weather records back to 1843. They used to average only 6 days reaching 90° a year from 1843 to 1872. The winter weather records are pretty fun to look at also. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 2 3 1 0 6 Max 0 1872 1 1872 6 1843 10 1843 5 1853 4 1851 19 1854 Min 0 1872 0 1871 0 1872 0 1871 0 1872 0 1872 0 1843 M 0 6 10 0 0 16 1844 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1845 0 0 1 8 0 0 9 1846 0 0 0 5 2 0 7 1847 0 0 1 3 0 0 4 1848 0 0 4 1 0 0 5 1849 0 0 4 3 0 0 7 1850 0 0 3 5 1 0 9 1851 0 0 1 2 0 4 7 1852 0 0 3 4 0 1 8 1853 0 0 3 1 5 1 10 1854 0 0 3 9 4 3 19 1855 0 0 2 4 0 0 6 1856 0 0 4 9 0 0 13 1857 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1858 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1859 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 1860 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1861 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1862 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1863 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1864 0 0 2 1 2 0 5 1865 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1866 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 1867 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1868 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 1869 0 0 0 2 2 0 4 1870 0 0 2 4 0 0 6 1871 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1872 0 1 0 4 0 0 5

The models sped up the frontal passage. While we still get a sea breeze, there is now a late day wind shift to the WNW. So areas from Huntington to maybe Commack could go 95°+. Even JFK could go mid-90s with that wind shift. The wild card will be convection. If it breaks up or heads to our south, then even the South Shore could have a late day high after the mid-day sea breeze. Another scenario would be a warm up on the outflow boundary if the convection comes right through the area. Where the sea breeze reverses on the NW gust front with a late day temperature jump. Saw this a bunch of times back in Long Beach.

The current 7 year stretch through 2025 is lowest on record at both JFK and NYC. JFK is currently at 14.5” which is lower than the previous record of 15.6” ending in 1976 and 15.8” in 1992. NYC is at 14.9” which comes in below the previous 7 year lows in 15.4 from 1933 and 16.3” in 1992. The highest 7 year max for JFK was 34.5” in 2016 with NYC setting their record high at 41.0”.

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 78.6 0 2 2024 78.3 0 - 2020 78.3 0 3 2025 78.2 9 4 2022 78.1 0 5 2023 78.0 1 6 2019 77.9 0 7 2010 77.3 0 8 2012 76.6 0 9 2011 76.4 0 10 2008 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 86.8 0 2 2019 86.6 0 - 2010 86.6 0 3 2023 86.2 1 4 2025 86.0 9 - 2020 86.0 0 - 2013 86.0 0 5 2024 85.5 0 6 2011 85.4 0 7 1977 85.1 8 8 2012 85.0 0 9 1952 84.4 0 10 2018 84.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 71.3 0 2 2024 71.0 0 3 2020 70.6 0 4 2025 70.5 9 5 2023 69.7 1 6 2022 69.3 0 7 2019 69.2 0 8 2008 68.3 0 9 2012 68.2 0 10 2010 67.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-22 11 1 2 2013-07-22 10 0 3 2025-07-22 8 0 - 2010-07-22 8 0 - 1952-07-22 8 0 4 2021-07-22 7 0 - 1977-07-22 7 39 5 2022-07-22 6 0 - 2019-07-22 6 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-22 23 1 - 2013-07-22 23 0 2 2025-07-22 20 0 3 2021-07-22 17 0 4 2010-07-22 16 0 5 2023-07-22 14 1

Unfortunately, we don’t have a long term continuous snowfall measurement record for a given spot in Somerset County. There are different COOP sites with varying length observation records. The longest continuous site is New Brunswick to your east. The current 7 year running mean snowfall is 15.9” ending in 2025. That is the 3rd lowest on record behind the 13.1” ending in 1933 and the 13.8” ending 7 year period in 1956. New Brunswick is doing better than Philly relative to the 7 year means. The Philly 7 year running average snowfall is 10.5” ending in 2025 is the lowest on record.This is below the previous record lowest 7 year snowfall average of 12.5” ending in 1933. The highest New Brunswick 7 year running mean snowfall was 39.6” ending in 1911. The 2nd highest was 38.2” ending in 2016. The highest Philly running 7 year snowfall average was 36.8” ending in 2016.

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

We have been seeing this pattern quite a bit during recent summers. It has been leading to a slow start to the hurricane seasons. As the SST differential between the subtropics and tropics relaxes later on, the dry air issues clear up and we see a quick acceleration of development. Unfortunately, it has lead to many late season rapidly intensifying hurricanes along the Gulf Coast.

It was cool enough yesterday for JFK to break the 8th longest 70° minimum streak at 16 days. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 29 1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13 2 24 2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24 - 24 1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05 3 21 2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25 - 21 1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17 4 20 2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22 5 19 2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05 6 18 1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03 7 17 1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17 8 16 2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21 - 16 2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16 9 15 1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06 10 14 2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18 - 14 2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26 - 14 2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21

I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

The model forecasts have the -AMO getting overwhelmed by the fast Atlantic warming. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future.