bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/12/climate-change-clouds-equilibrium-sensitivity/ But just in the past few years, researchers have also discovered that the number of low-level stratus or stratocumulus clouds are expected to decrease as the planet continues to warm. One study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, used satellite observations to discover how cloud formation is affected by ocean temperatures, wind speed, humidity and other factors — and then analyzed how those factors will change as the world warms. “We concluded that as the ocean warms, the low-level clouds over the oceans tend to dissipate,” said Myers, one of the authors of the study. That means that there are fewer clouds to reflect sunlight and cool the earth — and the change in low-level clouds will also amplify global warming.
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2.20 in the last 30 minutes at Bensonhurst mesonet with up to 5.19 now. http://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Must be at least plenty of street flooding with the Brooklyn mesonet picking up 1.39 in the last 30 minutes. http://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Looks like a new hourly September rainfall record. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_p01i&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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I think it’s also a test of how reliable our ENSO models are. With the exception of 15-16, many have had fairly significant errors with their El Niño forecasts as late as September. My guess is that this is a result of the semi-permanent La Niña background state in recent years with strong WPAC warming. 12-13 was never able to develop and models didn’t catch on until October. 14-15 was forecast to go super early on but verified as much weaker. The super El Niño got delayed a year. 18-19 couldn’t fully couple and the Euro completely missed the winter forecast. This year we are continuing to verify under some of the more aggressive ENSO forecasts which had September near +2.0 in Nino 3.4. In addition, we are seeing historically low MEI readings for an event which nominally registered around +1.5 in September. Also unusually weak WWBs for most months since the spring with the exception of August. That was our only month with rapid warming in Nino 3.4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6#:~:text=The results from large ensemble,relative to the central Pacific.
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This thread has all the 10” months around the area since 2003. But some were in as short a period of hours to a day like in August 2011 and 2014.
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https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/
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I just mean so long after the landfall on Saturday. This may be one of the most delayed post tropical remnant systems that we have had.
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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The HREF output looks more like something we see soon after a tropical system makes landfall. The mean would be significant enough. But that max potential would really be tough for any locales than can even come within a few inches of that.
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- heavy rain
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You are probably right about the NAO since that cold blob has emerged in the North Atlantic. But most of our DJF blocking episodes since the 15-16 super El Niño have been more weighted to the AO rather than NAO. The other change is that the volatility between extreme -AO and +AO states has been increasing. So the seasonal means often hide the very wide swings. The AO weighted blocks have also become more south based at times leading to warmer outcomes than during past blocking events. JAN 2016…AO…-1.449…..NAO….+0.12 DEC 2017...AO…-0.059……NAO….+0.88 JAN 2018...AO….-0.281……NAO….+1.44 JAN 2019…AO….-0.173……NAO…..+0.59 DEC 2020…AO….-1.736……NAO….-0.30 JAN 2021….AO…..-2.484…..NAO….-1.11 FEB 2021…..AO……-1.191……NAO…..+0.14 DEC 2022….AO…..-2.719……NAO…..-0.15 JAN 2023….AO….-0.674…….NAO…..+1.25
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It would be nice if some of this record summer blocking found its way over to the winter.
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The -NAO has been negative most of time since June 1st.
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Plenty of PNA volatility which leads to big model shifts from run to run. So the models can’t figure out whether the El Niño or -PDO will be running the show leading to big swings from run to run.
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But we had hints. The OHC decline and the lack of WWBs were working against El Niño strengthening. Also the extremely Niña-like -PDO and associated trade wind pattern. We can remember the very strong -PDO in September 2012 and trades staying up that caused all the models to miss the decline. We still got the backloaded El Niño February with NEMO so all was forgiven.
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The daily -2.52 -PDO is lower than any readings with the La Niña from last fall into winter. I believe it’s also the lowest -PDO reading for a Nino 3.4 reading near +1.4. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
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Nino 3.4 back to moderate levels near +1.4 as the Niña-like lack of any appreciable WWBs continues. The much lower RONI and MEI isn’t allowing the trades to fully relax like we typically see during Ninos. So the competing influences are currently acting as brake on El Niño development.
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September matches a -PDO El Niño composite blend.The strong Aleutian ridge NW of Hawaii is classic -PDO in September. The ridge over Southern Canada is indicative of El Niño. There is some overlap in Northern Canada between the two composites also. The lower heights in Alaska also have a -PDO flavor.
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We got lucky in Long Beach since Gloria hit a low tide instead of high tide. It had a higher storm surge than Irene but Irene came in at high tide. So the actual tide levels for both storms in Long Beach were the same. The wind gusts over portions of Eastern Long Island were estimated at 100+.
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Low of 46° this morning here at KHVN is coldest of season so far. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn
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Off course, and we have all been saying this. Competing influences and degree of coupling adds more uncertainty going forward.
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Yeah, what we actually said is that the summer composite matched a weaker +MEI composite and that the Aleutian low was on the weaker side for a developing El Niño. Plus we are seeing mixed influences early on so far during the fall. These are very important distinctions in how the summer forecast did. A warmed up weaker MEI composite was a better summer forecast that the other stronger ones relying solely on the warmer 3.4s and a quieter hurricane season. So acknowledging the competing or overlapping patterns would have resulted in a better summer forecast had it been issued. Strong MEI composite… strong Aleutian low less blocking Weak MEI composite more blocking..less expansive Aleutian Low 2023 warmed up weak MEI worked
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That’s what I have been saying for a while now. The subsurface cooling from a June peak of +1.4 to under +1.0 now has never happened with any strong to super event we have subsurface records of. While the sample size of super events is smaller, they were all near +2 during this time of year. So we are at 50% of those levels.
