bluewave

Yeah, what was left of the snowpack in the Long Beach West End turned into icebergs like in this video from the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in Mass when the storm surge came in. They froze into concrete blocks with the flash freeze the next morning.

We know that we can get Great Lakes cutters in El Niños as well as La Ninas. But some of the solutions showing up look as strong if not stronger than any December La Niña cutter of the last 3 years. It will be interesting to see if some of the stronger solutions verify.

The be all end all is getting the pattern right and finding the appropriate tools to get it done.

Yeah, a continuation of the fall pattern of the only cold in the Northern Hemisphere lining up on the other side of the globe.

Last December was the warmest La Niña on record around NYC with a -2.000 or lower monthly AO reading. If we can hold onto a -AO for the December average, then this could be the first El Niño -AO for NYC with a monthly average temperature over 40.0°. La Niña Decembers with -AO lower than -2.000 and NYC average temperature 2022….-2.719…38.5° 2010…..-2.631….32.8° 2005….-2.104…..35.3° 2000….-2.354….31.1° 1995…..-2.127….32.4° All El Niño -AO Decembers and NYC average temperature 2009….-3.413….35.9° 2002….-1.592….36.0° 1997…..-0.071…..38.2° 1987…..-0.534…..39.5° 1977…..-0.240…..35.6° 1976…..-2.074…..29.9° 1969…..-1.865…..33.4° 1968…..-0.783….34.2° 1963…..-1.178…..31.2° 1958……-1.687…..29.3°

This will be two Decembers in a row with a disappointing -AO pattern under both La Niña and El Niño patterns due to the very hostile Pacific.

But that isn’t what I said. MJO 8 is still warm during an El Niño but we see improvement with phases 2 and 3 in January. As for the weak SPV this month during the El Niño, all the cold is currently over in Eurasia. So it isn’t doing us any good. Hopefully, we see changes on that front during the winters 2nd half should blocking persist.

The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible.

The last time we did 8-1-3 during an El Niño was in January 2016. While phase 8 was still warm early on, we did see big improvements when it got into 1-2-3 with the historic blizzard when the signal finally weakened after 3. I think the record east based warmth in January 1998 held the convection too long in 8 and didn’t allow a colder progression to 1-2-3.

Phase 8 is warm in December into January during and El Niño. The most extreme example of this was January 1998.

You can go back in time in this thread and others and find lengthy papers and studies refuting all the points you brought up. So it’s not my job to to the homework for you.

None of the points that you made had anything to do with my original post.

Maritime Continent to Central Pacific MJO phases with a borderline super El Niño is a very warm signal for the CONUS. So it’s not a surprise that the models are correcting warmer. This pattern has supercharged the Pacific Jet which is flooding North America with mild Pacific air.

One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warmer 4-7 phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8 that is also a warmer signal from December into January. New run Old run

One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warm phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8, that is also a warmer signal from December into January with an El Niño. New run Old run

I think January 1998 was a case of the super El Niño combined with MJO 8 which is a warm pattern for us. That’s why all the talk of the MJO getting to phase 8 and cooling things off isn’t what we would expect during an El Niño. Pretty good match MJO 8 and El Nino

The MJO has successfully been used as a forecast tool for a while now. But the rapid expansion of the WPAC pool has slowed and amplified it in the warmer phases in recent times. Numerous papers were published in the last 5 years on this topic. So you are hearing about it now more because of the warming influence for us plus more understanding how it’s altering our local climate. Everything from mountain torques to sudden stratospheric warming have there roots in the MJO dynamics. So it’s right up there in importance with El Niño and La Niña. The key is figuring out how the ENSO and MJO will interact and drive the Rossby wave pattern.

The 91-20 baseline is now so warm that a modest +1.7 is still a top 10 warmest temperature. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Departure 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 6 2016 68.9 0 7 2023 68.6 +1.7 - 1998 68.6 0 8 2010 68.3 0 9 2022 68.2 0 10 1983 68.1 0 - 1971 68.1 0

Plus people have to realize that MJO 8 isn’t necessarily cold in December during an El Niño. And that is if we even make it that far. One of the model biases for the ensembles week 2 is to dampen the tropical convection. Sometimes individual OP or ensemble runs can be more informative than a smoothed out lo res mean. So when people look to the end of the run and see the convection weakening it’s often the signal getting washed out in the long range model noise. And not the convection in the warm phases weakening. Then we have the well documented lag with MJO where we are still get a previous phase conditions for up to week following passage. So this is one of the reasons the warm phases tend to outlast what people expect.

The more more amplified snowfall distribution pattern began at Islip in 1994. Prior to that, midrange seasons were much more common. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2023-04-30 5.0 0 2022-04-30 37.0 0 2021-04-30 33.5 0 2020-04-30 6.8 0 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 2009-04-30 36.2 0 2008-04-30 10.7 0 2007-04-30 9.0 0 2006-04-30 36.0 0 2005-04-30 58.8 0 2004-04-30 41.4 0 2003-04-30 54.6 0 2002-04-30 3.7 1 2001-04-30 38.9 1 2000-04-30 9.0 0 1999-04-30 19.4 0 1998-04-30 2.6 0 1997-04-30 12.4 1 1996-04-30 77.1 0 1995-04-30 5.1 0 1994-04-30 37.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1993-04-30 28.6 0 1992-04-30 13.4 0 1991-04-30 13.8 0 1990-04-30 19.0 0 1989-04-30 19.0 0 1988-04-30 19.5 0 1987-04-30 22.5 0 1986-04-30 15.2 0 1985-04-30 26.9 0 1984-04-30 27.5 0 1983-04-30 31.9 0 1982-04-30 35.4 0 1981-04-30 20.8 0 1980-04-30 9.0 0 1979-04-30 28.1 0 1978-04-30 68.0 0 1977-04-30 28.0 0 1976-04-30 30.2 0 1975-04-30 14.5 0 1974-04-30 34.0 0 1973-04-30 4.5 0 1972-04-30 15.6 0 1971-04-30 18.9 0 1970-04-30 27.0 0 1969-04-30 33.5 0 1968-04-30 22.6 0 1967-04-30 50.8 0 1966-04-30 15.7 0 1965-04-30 39.5 0 1964-04-30 39.7 6

The one thing I have noticed with snowfall at places like Islip is the all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 90s. Either very high years or very low ones. Mid range years have become very rare but were much more common from the 60s to 80s.

When various ensemble members including the OP still have convection lingering near 120E at the end of the run in MJO 5 you know it’s going to be a mild pattern.

Because there is more a chance that they will be correct when the warm signal from the Pacific is so huge.

Yeah, pretty much like clockwork every year. It’s impressive that all 3 ensembles have the familiar Aleutian ridge, Western trough, Eastern ridge pattern near the end of their runs. So the same stagnant pattern of recent years whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña.

Yeah, while the forcing is setting up in a very warm region for the Northeast this month, the waves are progressing eastward. So that enormous December 2015 standing wave which drove those ridiculous departures will be a tough act to follow. Unfortunately, even if we go +2.5 to +5.0 in portions of the Northeast this month like NYC metro, that is against an already much warmer 91-20 climate normals. Plus it will continue the long term trend in December for places like NYC to average over 40° again. Regardless of ENSO state, the Decembers in the Northeast have been one of our fastest warming months.