bluewave
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Yeah, we would need a Pacific shift to get back to above average snowfall. Warm winters can work with the right storm track and blocking. So we could get 16-17, 17-18 or 20-21 type winters when the Pacific improves. But NYC would still need a colder winter to get back to 50” like 13-14 and 14-15.
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Yeah, warm winters with hostile Pacific patterns like this one will always have less snow. We would need a favorable Pacific and blocking to get big snowstorms in a warm winter. This is what happened in 15-16 and 16-17. But NYC hasn’t been able to get back to 50” with all the warmer winters since 15-16.
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Seems like the lower snowfall averages over the Mid-Atlantic have come north in recent years with the warmer winters. Those areas had a decrease after the 2010 snowfall peak. Warmer winters eventually lead to lead snow.
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13-14 could have done it a Newark with more snow in December and March. But 10-11 came closer. So just goes to show how tough it was been to challenge 95-96. During the snowfall peak from 2010-2015, stations to our north and south beat 95-96. So that may have been our last shot since winters have warmed so much since then. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 12.8 31.6 18.4 11.9 0.7 78.4 1960-1961 T 0.0 24.0 22.2 23.3 4.0 T 73.5 2010-2011 0.0 T 24.5 37.4 4.1 2.2 T 68.2 1977-1978 0.0 1.5 0.2 27.4 25.3 10.5 T 64.9 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.9 18.5 33.4 8.7 0.0 64.5 2013-2014 0.0 T 9.4 20.8 30.3 0.2 0.4 61.1
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10-11 would have surpassed 95-96 if the snowy pattern lasted another 2-4 weeks. That was the last time we had a shot at surpassing 95-96. But it was also a cold winter. Places to our north and south set new snowiest records from 2010 to 2015. They were all colder winters than we have seen since then. The records were also set over shorter intervals than 95-96. So no new seasonal snowfall records have been set since the super El Niño in 15-16. Cold is necessary for both wall to wall 95-96 and 10-11 style short record snowfall burst winters. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 2.6 0.3 34.3 64.8 8.6 T 110.6 1995-1996 0.0 4.1 24.1 39.8 15.5 16.8 7.3 107.6 1993-1994 0.0 T 11.6 33.7 36.2 14.8 0.0 96.3 1947-1948 0.0 1.1 26.8 32.5 17.0 11.8 0.0 89.2 2004-2005 0.0 3.9 7.2 43.3 17.7 14.5 T 86.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1947-1948 0.0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.8 0.0 63.9 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 1922-1923 0.0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 60.4 1872-1873 0.0 3.5 26.8 10.6 18.9 0.4 0.0 60.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 24.1 3.1 51.5 T 0.0 78.7 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.2 25.9 22.4 8.5 T 68.0 1995-1996 0.0 1.9 7.3 33.8 12.9 7.2 2.4 65.5 1898-1899 0.0 13.4 0.3 5.8 31.5 4.4 T 55.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.2 23.4 19.0 12.1 T 54.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 20.1 6.9 50.0 T 0.0 77.0 1995-1996 0.0 1.0 2.3 32.6 19.0 7.6 0.0 62.5 2002-2003 0.0 0.0 9.7 5.3 40.5 2.6 T 58.1 1963-1964 0.0 T 9.7 10.3 18.2 13.2 0.4 51.8 1898-1899 0.0 9.7 0.6 5.3 33.9 1.6 T 51.1
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14-15 got started too late and the best snows were in New England that year. Plus it was our last cold winter here. NYC can’t make it past 50” without a colder winter. So even 50” will remain out of reach for NYC with these warmer winters since 15-16. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1947-1948 0.0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.8 0.0 63.9 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 1922-1923 0.0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 60.4 1872-1873 0.0 3.5 26.8 10.6 18.9 0.4 0.0 60.2 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 1874-1875 0.0 T 10.1 14.5 4.5 13.8 13.5 56.4 1898-1899 0.0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0.0 55.9 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1906-1907 0.0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 53.2 1933-1934 0.0 0.5 14.9 0.1 27.9 8.6 0.0 52.0 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1916-1917 0.0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 50.7 1915-1916 0.0 T 8.1 0.7 13.1 25.5 3.3 50.7 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
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I think 95-96 will be too tough to beat since we haven’t had wall to wall snow and cold from late November into early April since then. 10-11 was the only season that could have made a challenge but the snows cut off too early at the start of February. Most of our snowy years since 10-11 only had big snows over 1-3 months. Warming winters mean shorter duration snowy intervals. So 75” in NYC and near 90” on Long Island will hard to replicate without more extensive cold and more favorable Pacific patterns.
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The Caribou, Maine version of that record is only 26 days reaching 10° or lower which is currently the lowest and behind 09-10 by 6 days. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature <= 10 Missing Count 1 2022-2023 26 18 2 2009-2010 32 0 3 2015-2016 37 0 - 1938-1939 37 46 4 2020-2021 38 0 5 2001-2002 39 0 6 1939-1940 43 26 7 1950-1951 45 0 8 1953-1954 47 0 9 1996-1997 48 0 - 1968-1969 48 0 - 1959-1960 48 0 10 2016-2017 49 0 - 2012-2013 49 0 - 2005-2006 49 0 - 1998-1999 49
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Top 5 warmest winter across the region with numerous +5 departures. So a record breaking 8 warmer than average winters in a row for places like NYC. A well defined winter pattern shift to warmer following the 15-16 super El Niño. Rankings Departures Northeast DJF averages and departures through 2022
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Yeah, another anomalous event caused by the record WPAC warm pool. https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced. "It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events. This research highlights that climatologists should consider the SST anomaly distribution of super El Niño events for future MJO activity studies. More information: Xuben Lei et al, Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2021). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x
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The record high only lasted a year at Islip. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0814 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2023 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 57 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 2022. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).
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That area experienced its peak in the 2000s while NYC was during the 2010s.
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Danbury, CT has actually had a snowfall decline over the last 30 years while NYC has held more steady.
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We don’t have the 100 year data for the more rural locations. But since global warming accelerated around 1980, low temperatures at the more rural locations have been warming faster than NYC . We can see this when the winter low temperature trends since 1980 are examined. The lows at POU are warming the fastest followed by HPN then NYC.
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Most of the snowfall is missing before 1960. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1947-1948 0.0 290 1948-1949 44.5 0 1949-1950 12.5 122 1950-1951 M 365 1951-1952 M 366 1952-1953 M 365 1953-1954 M 365 1954-1955 M 365 1955-1956 M 366 1956-1957 M 365 1957-1958 M 365 1958-1959 8.3 123 1959-1960 34.2 3 1960-1961 58.5 1
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Only 3 seasons in the last 30 years with a seasonal snowfall in the 20s vs 12 for previous 30. The the mid-range has been missing as the high and low extremes increase. So you have a high success rate if your seasonal forecasts avoid a seasonal forecast in the 20s. But the trick is knowing ahead of time if it’s under 20” or over 30”. We’ll know before this decade is out if the warming of the climate and La Niña WPAC warm pool results in under 20” or even 10” some years becoming the new normal. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2022-2023 0.2 235 2 2021-2022 21.7 0 3 2020-2021 34.5 0 4 2019-2020 3.8 0 5 2018-2019 14.7 0 6 2017-2018 35.5 0 7 2016-2017 30.9 0 8 2015-2016 41.4 0 9 2014-2015 44.2 0 10 2013-2014 45.6 0 11 2012-2013 17.6 0 12 2011-2012 3.7 0 13 2010-2011 42.0 0 14 2009-2010 47.2 0 15 2008-2009 22.3 0 16 2007-2008 11.7 0 17 2006-2007 8.5 0 18 2005-2006 25.4 0 19 2004-2005 36.8 0 20 2003-2004 37.6 0 21 2002-2003 56.2 0 22 2001-2002 4.5 0 23 2000-2001 33.8 0 24 1999-2000 14.1 0 25 1998-1999 12.3 0 26 1997-1998 3.6 0 27 1996-1997 9.8 0 28 1995-1996 69.0 0 29 1994-1995 7.9 0 30 1993-1994 45.2 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1992-1993 20.0 0 1991-1992 10.5 0 1990-1991 20.4 0 1989-1990 9.6 0 1988-1989 8.2 0 1987-1988 19.7 0 1986-1987 23.1 0 1985-1986 19.3 0 1984-1985 27.3 0 1983-1984 22.0 0 1982-1983 32.1 0 1981-1982 24.9 0 1980-1981 16.5 0 1979-1980 11.0 0 1978-1979 27.2 0 1977-1978 48.5 0 1976-1977 22.7 0 1975-1976 20.7 0 1974-1975 10.5 0 1973-1974 21.8 0 1972-1973 1.6 0 1971-1972 14.9 0 1970-1971 20.1 0 1969-1970 19.5 0 1968-1969 30.8 0 1967-1968 17.4 0 1966-1967 47.0 0 1965-1966 15.6 0 1964-1965 29.5 0 1963-1964 34.4 1
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Twice. 88-89 to 89-90 and 97-98. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2022-2023 0.2 235 2 1972-1973 1.6 0 3 1997-1998 3.6 0 4 2011-2012 3.7 0 5 2019-2020 3.8 0 6 2001-2002 4.5 0 7 1994-1995 7.9 0 8 1988-1989 8.2 0 9 2006-2007 8.5 0 10 1989-1990 9.6 0 11 1996-1997 9.8 0
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13.7” Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.9 1.9 0.8 6.9 T 10.5 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 6.1 5.7 7.9 0.7 0.0 20.4 1989-1990 0.0 3.7 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 9.6 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7
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15” average over the last 5 years. Little better than 97-02. Slightly lower than late 80s. Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.0 1.9 4.3 6.6 1.7 T 15.0 2022-2023 0.0 T T T 0.2 M M 0.2 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 17.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.9 26.4 T T 34.5 2019-2020 0.0 T 1.9 1.9 T T T 3.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.8 T 0.7 3.1 6.1 0.0 14.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 2.5 4.7 2.7 2.7 0.5 13.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 4.1 0.3 0.1 T 4.5 2000-2001 T T 11.9 8.2 7.9 5.8 T 33.8 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.1 8.5 3.3 0.7 1.5 14.1 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.7 1.7 4.6 0.0 12.3 1997-1998 0.0 T 0.6 0.1 T 2.9 T 3.6 1996-1997 0.0 T T 3.4 3.1 1.8 1.5 9.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.9 1.7 7.3 4.7 1.3 0.1 16.0 1989-1990 0.0 3.7 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 9.6 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7 1986-1987 0.0 0.4 1.0 11.8 7.9 2.0 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.8 3.0 13.5 T T 19.3
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Both locations have warmed about 5° during the winter since the late 1800s.
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We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get.
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Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings. Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 1932-02-07 46.0 0 2 1890-02-07 44.8 0 3 1950-02-07 43.6 0 4 1933-02-07 41.6 0 5 1937-02-07 41.3 0 6 1949-02-07 41.2 0 7 1913-02-07 40.9 0 8 2020-02-07 40.7 0 - 1947-02-07 40.7 0 - 1880-02-07 40.7 0 9 2012-02-07 40.6 0 10 2016-02-07 40.5 0 11 2002-02-07 40.2 0 12 2023-02-07 40.1 0 - 1924-02-07 40.1 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 42.8 0 2 1932-02-07 41.5 0 3 2002-02-07 41.4 0 4 2012-02-07 40.5 0 5 2023-02-07 40.0 0 6 1950-02-07 39.8 2 7 1991-02-07 39.6 0 8 2020-02-07 39.3 0 9 1998-02-07 39.1 0 - 1933-02-07 39.1 0 10 1999-02-07 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 23.1 0 2 2021-02-07 22.7 0 3 2023-02-07 20.6 0 4 1958-02-07 19.4 0 5 2006-02-07 19.2 0 - 2002-02-07 19.2 0 6 2011-02-07 18.9 0 7 2020-02-07 18.6 0 8 1983-02-07 18.4 0 9 2010-02-07 18.2 0 10 1997-02-07 18.1 0
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First place for least number of days with a low temperature at or below freezing. Fifth place for number of days with highs above freezing. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2023-02-08 24 1 2 2016-02-08 25 0 - 2002-02-08 25 0 3 2012-02-08 26 0 - 1932-02-08 26 0 4 2020-02-08 27 0 - 2017-02-08 27 0 - 1998-02-08 27 0 - 1869-02-08 27 31 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature > 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 1998-02-08 69 0 2 2020-02-08 68 0 - 2008-02-08 68 0 - 1953-02-08 68 0 - 1932-02-08 68 0 3 2002-02-08 67 0 - 1993-02-08 67 0 4 1950-02-08 66 1 5 2023-02-08 65 1 - 2017-02-08 65 0 - 2012-02-08 65 0 - 1991-02-08 65 0 - 1975-02-08 65 0 - 1937-02-08 65 0 - 1919-02-08 65 0
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Yeah, the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been one of the biggest climate drivers in recent years.
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Since 1920 in NYC, there is no snowfall trend. But much more volatility in the 5 year averages since the 90s. So years with higher highs and lower lows. The 2010s was the best decade for snowfall in the last 100 years. But we have also seen several years with lowest snowfall rankings since the 1990s.
