bluewave

The actual climate and weather speaks in patterns and not narratives. The Dust Bowl was a manmade event caused by removing the topsoil in the Plains leading to desertification of the Great Plains. So what would have been a run of the mill drought turned into a disaster which forced migration to other parts of the country. So of course the summer highs over a few years would set records just in the drought areas which became deserts back in those days. Other states and parts of the country which didn’t experience those conditions have already surpassed the temperatures they recorded in the Plains. So narrowly focusing more on the Great Plains than the rest of the world which has greatly surpassed the warmth of the 1930s completely loses perspective.

We are really lucky that we haven’t had a severe summer drought with westerly winds in this much warmer climate. Some of most impressive warmth over the last decade has occurred during the winter. When we hit 80° back in February 2018 it was a 4° jump over any previous February high. In the summer that would translate into 112° at Newark, 110° to 111° at LGA or the warmer zone near Corona, Queens.

All those 1934 records were the result of the farmers essentially turning the Great Plains into a giant paved over parking lot by removing the top soil. If we had maintained the same practices and not expanded the irrigation to record levels since then, those figures would get surpassed at least once every decade. The record monthly low of 70° for May at International Falls the other day is more impressive than any of those 1934 records. Simply for the fact that INL is one of the most rural areas in the U.S. and it’s on the Canadian Border. Anytime you see a record like that in what is considered the icebox of the U.S. you have to take notice. While the new all-time May max was only exceeded by 1°, that 70° minimum is 4° warmer than any other on May minimum on record for INL. It’s also the earliest 70° minimum by over a month. Top 5 warmest May minimum temperatures at International Falls Time Series Summary for INTERNATIONAL FALLS INTL AP, MN - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 70 19 2 1992 66 0 - 1988 66 0 3 1991 64 0 - 1919 64 0 4 2018 63 0 - 2014 63 0 - 1986 63 0 5 2021 62 0 - 2007 62 0 - 1980 62 0 - 1955 62 0 - 1918 62 3 First/Last Summary for INTERNATIONAL FALLS INTL AP, MN Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 05-12 (2025) 70 - - - 1995 06-17 (1995) 70 06-17 (1995) 70 0 2020 06-17 (2020) 70 06-17 (2020) 70 0 2001 06-25 (2001) 71 08-05 (2001) 77 40 2002 06-29 (2002) 70 09-08 (2002) 73 70

A minimum of 70° there this time of year is ridiculous. Would be the equivalent of an 84° low at LGA in May. So some pretty extreme stuff.

The most impressive heat this month is up by International Falls. So an early clue as to where the strongest summer heat may be focused closest to the drought feedback zones in the Western U.S. to the Plains. The new all-time May high of 96° would be the same as 100° here in May. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 414 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN YESTERDAY... A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 11 OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1991 AND TIED IN 1993. A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WAS ALSO SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS YESTERDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET ON MAY 21 1964.

Record warmth continuing into May. https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net One for the record books -- May 9, 2025 was the hottest May 9th on record globally, with daily records dating back to 1940.

JFK is currently experiencing the longest 100° day drought on record at 4316 days due to the increased onshore flow since 2013. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2025-05-12 1 4316 2013-07-19 through 2025-05-12 2 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03 3 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15 4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08 5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22 6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04 7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20 8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21 9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31 10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

It looks like we are on track for no 90° days this month at the warmer spots like Newark which usually get them. So if the past experience continues with the exception of 1983 which was a super El Niño, this summer won’t see as many 90° days as the big years like 2022 and 2010 did. So an under 40 days reaching 90° season. But we could still see warm intervals and even 100° heat away from the shore with another warmer than average summer. Though the greatest heat may be back closer to the Plains and West this summer where the strongest drought feedback currently is. All May years at Newark with no 90° days Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ with no 90° days in May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2009 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 14 2008 0 0 6 11 2 3 0 22 2005 0 0 10 11 12 4 0 37 2003 0 0 5 8 7 0 0 20 1997 0 0 7 10 3 0 0 20 1990 2 0 5 9 9 1 0 26 1989 0 0 4 12 8 3 0 27 1984 0 0 8 6 8 0 0 22 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 1982 0 0 1 10 1 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1950 0 0 8 6 3 1 0 18 1946 0 0 5 5 2 0 0 12 1940 0 0 2 11 1 1 0 15 1938 0 0 4 4 9 0 1 18

Yeah, that was the elevation snows back in 2013. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-new-england-new-york-weekend-20130527

Over the last 10 years there have been many extended Memorial Day weekends with at least some measurable rainfall on at least one day. This has been par for the course. Maybe related to all the blocking in Canada this time of year coupled with the tendency for lows to cutoff. We can all remember the record low maxes a few years ago. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-05-12DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017

If recent years are a guide, then at least one of the Friday to Monday extended weekend days feature some measurable rain but it won’t be a washout.

1993 was the leader in 95° and 100° days at Newark. You can see how much warmer our summers have become since 2010. Even though 2010 and 1993 still stand at the top, many other years haven’t been far behind. This is mostly due to the onshore flow influence. If we ever got westerly flow and a real summer drought, then this records would easily be eclipsed in this much warmer climate than 2010 and 1993. 95° days at Newark Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 2022 20 0 - 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 6 1949 16 0 7 2005 14 0 - 1953 14 0 8 2016 13 0 - 1999 13 0 - 1991 13 0 - 1987 13 0 9 1994 12 0 - 1983 12 0 - 1966 12 0 10 2018 11 0 - 1973 11 0 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 4 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 5 2011 4 0 - 2010 4 0 - 1955 4 0 - 1944 4 0

95° and 100° days were close in 2022 to 2010 in NJ. 2022 95° days Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 20 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 20 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 16 HARRISON COOP 16 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 CANOE BROOK COOP 14 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 13 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 13 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 12 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 10 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 10 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 10 ESTELL MANOR COOP 10 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 10 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 10 NJ 100° days Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 2010 95° days Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 24 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 21 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 19 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 18 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 18 CANOE BROOK COOP 18 RINGWOOD COOP 18 ESTELL MANOR COOP 18 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 17 Trenton Area ThreadEx 17 HARRISON COOP 16 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 16 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 15 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 15 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 15 2010 100° days Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 4 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 4 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 HARRISON COOP 4 Trenton Area ThreadEx 3 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 3 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 3 CANOE BROOK COOP 3 RINGWOOD COOP 3 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 3

Of course 90° days are increasing in the city. I showed you how the drop in 90° days is a function of measuring the temperatures under the trees in Central Park since 1995. Several areas had their warmest summer on record for 90° days as recently as 2022. The immediate South Shore isn’t representative of what most of this forum experiences in the summer. This is a function of the ridge extending east of New England and turning the flow more onshore. So the sea breeze fronts have been setting up north of JFK and the Southern State Parkway on Long Island. Very rare in recent years for the sea breeze fronts to remain along the South Shore beaches like they did from the 1990s to 2013. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=CTCLIMATE&station=CT1762&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1950&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

90° days have been increasing across the entire region. The only areas that haven’t seen a big increase are at near the immediate shore. But most people live away from the immediate shore areas.

Yeah, spring 90° days at Newark have been increasing at a much slower rate than 50° and 60° days during the winter. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTEWR&season=winter&dir=above&var=high&threshold=50&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Looks like another over the top warm up this week. We could actually see the heaviest rains to our south instead of to the north which is different from the recent pattern. Then we cool down closer to average for late May with the wet pattern continuing. May 12-19 May 19-26

When you look at the regional increase in 90 days, NYC is the only outlier. LGA has seen a slower increase in 90° days than New Brunswick which is in a more rural to suburban type setting with grass and nearby trees. The base period that I am using for comparison is 1961-1990. This is the base period many of us grew up in before the summers and other seasons began to rapidly warm. So it was the last time we had anything approximating a stable climate. Summer warming especially accelerated from 2010 to 2024. 12 out of those 15 summers were above normal warmth to record warmth across the area. We only had 3 summers near to slightly below average temperatures in 2014, 2017, and 2023. The last time we had an actual cool summer was back in 2009. NYC has only seen an increase of 5.5% in the number of 90° days. Newark is at a 43.5% increase. LGA has increased 78.5%. New Brunswick has jumped 93.7%. POU to our north has seen a 50% increase. So NYC is the obvious outlier. LGA has been subject to cooling breezes off the water in recent summers since the ASOS is right on the water. There have been several more 90° days to the south closer to Corona, Queens. Newark has also had several summers recently with more onshore flow. This is why areas to the west have seen more 90° days. If the NYC ASOS wasn’t moved into the shade back in 1995, then the average would be at around 29 days reaching a year now vs 19. So this does a big disservice to residents living in Manhattan where the number of 90° days has been getting undercounted. I arrived at 29 days since this represents around a 60% increase when the Newark and LGA rate of increase is averaged out. So this is what the actual NYC annual number of 90° days would be closer to if the measurements were taken in a clearing like the Great Lawn rather than in a dense area of vegetation under a tall stand of cool shade trees. 1961 -1990 to 2010-2024 change in 90° days NYC….18 to 19……..+5.5% EWR….23 to 33……..+43.5% LGA…..14 to 25……..+78.5% NBW….16 to 31……..+93.7%…….My abbreviation for New Brunswick POU…..14 to 21……..+50%

Yeah, moving the ASOS into the shade in 1995 really skewed the values. In the roughly 30 year period since 1996 NYC has had only 461 days reaching 90 vs 817 days at Newark and 631 at LGA. The previous 30 year period from 1961 to 1990 featured 550 days in NYC with 689 at Newark and 410 at LGA. Harrison has become the new 90° day leader across the area surpassing Plainfield from 1961-1990. 1961-1990 # of 90 days EWR….689 NYC….550 LGA….410 1996-2024 #90 days EWR…817 LGA…631 NYC…461 Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 871 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 836 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 817 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 778 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 631 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 589 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 512 CT DANBURY COOP 498 NJ CRANFORD COOP 485 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 461 Data for January 1, 1961 through December 31, 1990 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 724 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 689 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 645 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 635 NY WEST POINT COOP 614 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 550 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 536 NY SCARSDALE COOP 523 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 521 NJ CRANFORD COOP 468 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 455 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 454 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 443 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 438 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 410

There is actually a cool bias at times at Newark since the ASOS is right on the water and gets a sea breeze. You will notice several more inland NJ sites having a similar number or more 90° days than Newark does. This is the total 90° count for the 2020s in NJ so far with the Harrison and Hightstown beating Newark for 90° days. 90 day Data for January 1, 2020 through May 9, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 204 HARRISON COOP 195 Newark Area ThreadEx 183 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 183 CANOE BROOK COOP 173 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 170 ESTELL MANOR COOP 169 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 167 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 162 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 160 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 154 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 154

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. But it does look like 90° potential will probably wait until after the Memorial Day weekend. While recent years had under 40 days at Newark with the first 90° holding off until after June 1st, the last time the first 90° getting delayed into June reached 40 days was 1983. But that was after a super El Niño winter and not a La Niña like this year. The real test will probably come during the last week of May which is beyond the 15 day model range. If a 90° day can’t sneak in that week, then the chances for Newark reaching 40 days this year could be diminished based on the past. All years at Newark with 40 days reaching 90° and the 1st 90° day 2010….54….4-7 2022….49….5-21 1993…..49….5-9 1988….43…..5-31 2021....41……5-19 1991….41……5-12 2016...40…..5-25 1983…40…..6-12 1959….40…..5-12

Looks like a delayed first 90° of the season for the warm spots like Newark. Models still have the upper low sitting over the Northeast on Memorial Day weekend. If this forecast does indeed verify, then it could mean that a summer like 2021 and 2022 for over 40 days reaching 90° near Newark may be less likely. This was the case in 2020 with the delayed first 90° into early June signaling fewer 90° days overall. These days Newark needs 40 or more days reaching 90° to be considered to be a high number. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 04-13 (2023) 08-27 (2020) 81 Mean 05-16 09-11 118 Maximum 06-06 (2020) 10-02 (2019) 147 2024 05-02 (2024) 90 08-28 (2024) 95 117 2023 04-13 (2023) 92 09-08 (2023) 92 147 2022 05-21 (2022) 95 09-04 (2022) 93 105 2021 05-19 (2021) 91 09-15 (2021) 91 118 2020 06-06 (2020) 91 08-27 (2020) 93 81 2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128 2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126 2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130 2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120 2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 33 0 2023 29 0 2022 49 0 2021 41 0 2020 31 0 2019 27 0 2018 36 0 2017 22 0 2016 40 0 2015 35 0

The NAO and AO have become really volatile over the years. With big swings from positive to negative over very short periods. So trying to do a detailed long range AO and and NAO forecast for next winter would probably be low skill at this point. This past winter the AO was negative and the NAO positive. This decoupling between the 2 indices has become more common during the 2020s. Plus on the days with .25 and more of precipitation around NYC this last winter the -AO and -NAO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. My guess is that this is related to surface pressures rising near the Azores during the winter. When the -AO links up with the Southeast Ridge the AO still registers as negative. But when the blocking near Iceland and Greenland links up with the East Atlantic or European Subtropical Ridge, the NAO registers as positive. So the rising pressures to the south near Europe have been preventing more -NAO winters in recent years. If we had lower pressures near the Azores this past winter, then it would have been a -NAO winter since pressures were above average near Iceland. Notice how much different it was from the pattern in 2010 with the record -NAO. The shift to a much more positive EA over time seems to have been also influencing the NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ea.shtml

While the records only go back to 1998, parts Orange County NY are already the 7th wettest May on record. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1998 6.80 0 2 2002 6.54 0 3 2011 5.39 0 4 2003 4.98 0 5 2024 4.94 0 6 2017 4.83 0 7 2025 4.77 23 8 2009 4.53 0 9 2021 4.50 0 10 2019 4.44 3

The jet stream weakening after the winter and plenty of blocking in Canada allowing lows to cutoff underneath.