bluewave

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 3 0 2 2022 16 0 3 2021 17 0 4 2020 14 0 5 2019 11 0 6 2018 16 0 7 2017 19 0 8 2016 -1 0 9 2015 2 0 10 2014 9 0 11 2013 17 0 12 2012 20 0 13 2011 15 0 14 2010 17

We always want Arctic air nearby to guard against mixing issues near the coast and for the retention of snowpack once the storm is past. Examples of single digit temperatures and double digit snowfall would be 1-4-18, 2-17-03, and 1-7-96. That’s not to say we can get great snowstorms with the right track and just cold enough. We have had plenty of those over the last decade. But Arctic air nearby is a nice insurance policy to have especially near the coast. It’s good to have but not always necessary. I personally don’t mind a great snowstorm that melts in a few days. But I know there are many here that don’t like that.

It’s easier to do temperature longer range than snow since snowfall forecasts aren’t reliable until we get to the under 72 hr mark. With the record Arctic outbreak to our west, we would be much colder this week if the flow wasn’t crossing the record warm Great Lakes. But highs near 32° in NYC and lows around 20° will feel much colder this week with how warm it has been. The wildcard for the forecast will be what happens with the storm later in the week. I will leave that to the shorter term model forecasts. But if we can lay down some snow cover and get a NNW cold air drain down the Hudson Valley, then NYC has a shot at dipping below 15° or maybe even 10° before we warm back up again later in the month.

NYC currently running +6.3 for the first 2 weeks of January. This is followed by colder temperatures this week. Then another warm up to close out January. So the month should finish solidly above normal.

Unprecedented cold in Seattle for such a strong El Niño. This is the first time there with a daily high not getting above 22° with the ONI near +2.0. It’s also the the lowest max there since 1991. Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Nov 1 to Mar 31 Peak ONI 1 1950-03-31 16 -1.5 2 1969-03-31 17 +1.1 3 1989-03-31 18 -1.8 4 1991-03-31 20 +0.4 - 1965-03-31 20 -0.6 5 1956-03-31 21 -1.7 6 2024-03-31 22 +1.9

I am thinking we could mix down most of the low level LLJ to 50-60 mph or even higher in spots along the squall with the low level lapse rates near all-time steepest levels on record for this time of year.

Yeah, this one reached 14.57 ft vs 14.17 in 1978.

Highest tide on record for Portland, Maine. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1244 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New Flood of Record at the Portland Maine Tide Gauge... At 12:06 pm...the water level at the Portland Tide gauge registered 14.57 feet MLLW. This breaks the all time record at this location of 14.17 feet MLLW set in 1978. Records at the Portland gauge extend back to 1912. Water levels will be reviewed to determine if any adjustments are necessary to this preliminary value.

8.61 ft is the 8th highest tide on record at the Battery. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=batn6 Historic Crests(1) 13.88 ft on 10/29/2012(2) 10.02 ft on 09/12/1960(3) 9.70 ft on 12/11/1992(4) 9.51 ft on 08/28/2011(5) 9.12 ft on 11/25/1950(6) 8.92 ft on 03/06/1962(7) 8.73 ft on 10/31/1991(8) 8.53 ft on 03/29/1984(9) 8.51 ft on 03/14/2010(10) 8.36 ft on 03/14/1993

Looks like the highest tide at Freeport of the 2020s so far. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=01310521&legacy=1

The HRRR has unusually deep mixing with snow squalls and 50-60 mph gusts potential along the Arctic front tomorrow.

Keeping with the same winter theme of only brief cool downs between mild patterns.

Yeah, that’s why that area was one of the few spots in the US to get a decrease in climate normals rather than an increase. Same old pattern of the coldest departures dropping to our west.

Very Niña-like Arctic outbreak pattern for North America this month. Seattle NWS mentioning the low max could be coldest there since the 1998-1999 strong La Niña.

First time NYC hasn’t had a winter high temperature below 37° by January 11th. BTV tied its record warmest low max at 25°. POU also set a new record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 37 0 2 1975-01-11 36 0 3 1987-01-11 34 0 4 2013-01-11 32 0 - 1997-01-11 32 0 - 1941-01-11 32 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 25 0 - 2002-01-11 25 0 3 2000-01-11 21 0 4 2007-01-11 20 0 - 1998-01-11 20 0 - 1987-01-11 20 0 - 1975-01-11 20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 33 0 2 1931-01-11 32 32 3 2002-01-11 31 0 - 1932-01-11 31 3

The Arctic outbreaks from 77-94 were very memorable back in Long Beach. January 1985 was the greatest display of Arctic sea smoke I ever saw on the Long Beach boardwalk. Lows near 0° and westerly gusts 40-50 mph. What I loved about Long Beach was that there were always people on the boardwalk in the most extreme weather. During the January 2004 Arctic outbreak there was a guy windsurfing in a wetsuit. Then I saw a jogger on the boardwalk in a lightweight track running suit. The most extreme was a guy on the LB boardwalk by Lincoln during Sandy only 15 minutes before that section of boardwalk collapsed into the ocean.

It can’t be UHI since Philly and Newark had top 5 all-time cold as recently as the 1980s and early 1990s. I just think the trajectory of the Arctic outbreaks from 77 to 94 favored areas to the north, west, and south of NYC. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -11 0 2 1984 -7 0 - 1982 -7 0 3 1985 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1994 -5 0 - 1963 -5 0 - 1880 -5 0 - 1875 -5 0 5 1977 -4 0 - 1961 -4 0 - 1917 -4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -14 0 2 1985 -8 0 - 1933 -8 0 3 1982 -7 0 - 1943 -7 0 4 1936 -4 0 - 1935 -4 0 5 1994 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0

Off the charts SST warmth in the MDR right now.

The 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 had single digits around the storm. It makes mixed precip near the coast less likely. It also allows us to retain snowpack longer.

The heat island in NYC has been fairly stable for a long time. They have actually been doing slightly better than the rural areas relative to the record the absolute coldest temperatures. At least NYC was able to dip below 0° as recently as 2016. But POU hasn’t been able to make it to -15 or lower since 1994. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 -30 1 2 1967 -23 0 - 1950 -23 2 3 1954 -22 0 4 1994 -20 29 - 1981 -20 8 - 1968 -20 0 5 1984 -18 0 - 1971 -18 0 - 1964 -18 0 - 1945 -18 2 6 1970 -16 0 - 1963 -16 0 - 1934 -16 2 7 1988 -15 0 - 1979 -15 0 - 1965 -15 0 - 1943 -15 1 - 1933 -15 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -15 0 2 1917 -13 0 3 1943 -8 0 4 1933 -6 0 - 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 - 1882 -6 0 - 1880 -6 1 5 1914 -5 0 - 1896 -5 0 6 1942 -4 0 - 1904 -4 0 - 1895 -4 1 - 1886 -4 0 - 1879 -4 2 7 1936 -3 0 - 1912 -3 0 - 1884 -3 0 - 1881 -3 3 - 1875 -3 2 8 1994 -2 0 - 1985 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 - 1925 -2 0 - 1922 -2 0 - 1920 -2 0 - 1885 -2 0 - 1871 -2 2 9 2016 -1 0

Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days.

The craziest was the early dismissal during the height of the 1938 hurricane. https://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/The-Hurricane-of-1938-5618878.php#photo-6591068

Yeah, those Niña-like influences have loomed large over our climate since the epic summer in March 2012 for the Great Lakes area.

Yeah, March 1984 was right up there for coastal flooding in Long Beach with Dec 73, Belle, and Feb 78. But Gloria and Dec 92 topped those 3. My first memory of coastal flooding was in Dec 73. Detroit got a great snowstorm and we got 75 mph winds and major coastal flooding. The school bus was driving through all the sand left in the streets of the West End when the ocean met the bay.