bluewave

This month will also feature one of the greatest AO rises on record for December from near -3 to near +3.

Peak gust so far 64 mph in Westchester. 0500 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Mamaroneck 40.92N 73.73W 12/18/2023 M64 MPH ANZ335 NY Mesonet

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations.

With a little luck the next rain event holds off until the 26th or 27th and we have a dry Christmas with good travel conditions like we had Thanksgiving day.

Latest GFS forecast soundings for the Jersey Shore and LI beaches have sustained winds during the peak of the storm around 40 mph. Frequent gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Stronger convection could mix down the 950 mb winds in peak gusts near 68 mph.

As impressive as theNorth Pacific Jet extension has been, the North Atlantic Jet will actually be stronger relative to climo for that region than the Pacific Jet in its region.The forecast is for it to max out near 5 sigma next week.

Mild afternoon here at KHVN with the high around 57°. I got a chance to walk over to the ASOS. They have it in a great location near the edge of the airport. The airport is built on a scenic marshy area with hills just to the west near New Haven Harbor. It’s in a very low spot so they have had issues with flooding at times.

Sure. This is for the entire CONUS.

We haven’t really had a mean on Long Island since the early 90s. Just a bunch of all or nothing snowfall seasons. Completely different from the 60s to early 90s with numerous snowfall years near the median.

NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15 Missing Count 1 2015-12-15 52.0 0 2 2001-12-15 51.3 0 3 1998-12-15 50.6 0 4 1953-12-15 47.4 0 5 1951-12-15 46.9 2 6 2021-12-15 45.4 0 7 2023-12-15 45.0 0 - 2012-12-15 45.0 0 - 2011-12-15 45.0 0 - 1991-12-15 45.0 0 8 1999-12-15 44.8 0 9 1923-12-15 44.7 0 10 1891-12-15 44.6 0

GFS forecast soundings only have a weak inversion in place out in Suffolk. So stronger convection could potentially tap the 950 mb winds which are around 63KT or 72 mph in gusts near the shoreline. Even the surface sustained winds are around 40KT or 47 mph.

That is the prevailing opinion for most people off this board who want our winters to be milder with less snow. We are definitely in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters.

North American snow extent now the lowest on record for this date going back almost 20 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

I would prefer the term competing influences rather than limited response.

Not taking away from the El Niño meant the metrics that snowman was mentioning for this El Niño are all solidly El Niño. But the weaker MEI is coming as a result of the WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 phases. So these warmer MJO 4-7 phases make this December in North America much warmer than we would expect just from an El Niño alone. The super El Niño warmth in December 2015 was enhanced by the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño. And the North American warmth in 2021 was also driven by warmer MJO interaction with La Niña.

Yeah, very strong El Niño effects combined with La Niña-like MJO 4-7 phases. This was the first time Australia had such an early tropical cyclone during an El Niño year. So some of the warmest SSTs on record near Australia during an El Niño is why the RONI is lower than usual. Doesn’t take anything away from the actual strength of the El Niño. But gives it some Nina-like flavor. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/australia/cyclone-jasper-queensland-australia.html This is the first time since records began in the 70s that a tropical cyclone arriving has so early in the season in an El Niño year, which is characterized by hot and dry conditions, Laura Boekel, a senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Australia’s tropical cyclone seasons usually run from November to April in the country’s north, but in El Niño years, the season doesn’t usually start until January or February, she added.

That’s the key. 60°+ or 55°+ days have become much more common around snowstorms especially in January and February. But all such cases had a nearby source of cold air to tap. This current air mass is all Pacific in origin. It won’t get the job done this early in the season for more than mood flakes to some light accumulations near the coast.

I understand what you are saying. Terms like torch and deep freeze can be too subjective to convey specifics in a forecast. I try to use more precise terms.

Maybe he did. I think he popularized delayed but not denied also. The main problem with terms like torch is that there is no precise definition if you are doing a forecast. But yeah, December 2015 was ridiculous. I was mostly using terms like historic to really try and do justice to what happened that month.

I never even used the term torch in December 2015. Mainly since I am respectful of others in here who are triggered by that term.

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro? I know for sure that I didn’t.

Yeah, the key is getting an amplified enough 8 in the first place and having the most favorable ENSO state for the given month. Additionally, over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intense southeastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record. The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation ...

We can still have highs in the 40s from 12-26 to 12-31 and have above average temperatures since the NYC average split is 41/31. I have not heard anyone on twitter using the term torch to describe our late month pattern here. But maybe the term was used for the Upper Midwest to Canada.

While most of the MJO action in recent years has been focused on the warmer MJO 4-7 phases, we get an occasional colder month when the MJO and ENSO actually give us a decent winter pattern. The MJO and La Niña teamed up for the amplified phase 8 stall in January 2022. This was the 2nd snowiest January on record at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2011 34.4 0 2 2022 31.8 0 3 2015 30.2 0 4 1978 27.7 0 5 2014 25.2 0 6 2016 24.8 0 7 1965 24.6 0 8 2018 22.0 0 9 2005 21.5 0 10 1996 20.2 0

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term.