bluewave

The big warm up for us comes by later next week as the block moves over to the Northeast. Then it will take a while for temperatures to get back closer to normal by mid-February.

All it took was one of the strongest omega blocks on record for this time of year to finally dry things out in early February.

That trough hanging back near the Baja would potentially act as a kicker favoring the main storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. That’s what the long range EPS indicates for mid to late February. But it only takes one to stray a little further north for NYC to break its under 2” streak.

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

The historic winter warmth pattern since December 2015 continues. A record breaking 20 warmer winter months out of the last 26. NYC Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

Probably better to keep expectations in check until we get closer to the mid portion of February. The first half of the month will be near record levels of warmth for North America. So even if the 500 mb pattern shifts like the models are indicating, there won’t be an immediate cold air source available. So it may take time to get the pattern back closer to average temperature wise. Then we will have to see where the storm track sets up. But since we will be in mid to late February, just cold enough will work with the right storm track.

Pretty impressive warmth for North America as a whole for the first half of February.

The weeklies are going all in on phase 8 as we approach the Presidents Day period.

That Arctic outbreak fit our recent pattern of having a near 60° day within a week of dropping under 10°. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2023-02-04 27 3 2023-02-05 49 27 2023-02-06 52 34 2023-02-07 43 30 2023-02-08 53 39 2023-02-09 55 42 2023-02-10 61 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-24 15 7 2022-12-25 28 14 2022-12-26 29 18 2022-12-27 35 29 2022-12-28 47 33 2022-12-29 51 40 2022-12-30 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2019-01-21 14 4 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-22 31 13 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-23 52 31 T 0.0 0 2019-01-24 59 35 1.33 0.0 0 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37

At least we are doing better than Buffalo.

Close to the cloudiest January since 1973 on Long Island at 63% now. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

We got a nice follow up storm to the east of NYC in early February pushing us up to around 40”. It gave JFK its first 40/40 winter. Data for October 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 42.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.4 NY CENTERPORT COOP 41.0 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 40.9 Data for December 1, 2015 through February 28, 2016 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature CT GROTON COOP 41.7 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 41.6 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 40.9 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40.8 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 40.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 40.3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 40.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40.0

The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow in NYC since 1950. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Seasonal Snowfall 2011 0.0 7.4 - 2006 0.0 12.4 2023 T 2.3…so far - 2022 T 2.3 - 2018 T 20.5 - 2015 T 32.8 - 2001 T 3.5 - 1999 T 16.3 - 1997 T 5.5 - 1996 T 10.0 - 1994 T 11.8 - 1972 T 2.8 - 1971 T 22.9 - 1965 T 21.4 - 1953 T 15.8

We haven’t had a warm and dry winter since 2001-2002. All our warm winters since then have been wet with either snow or rain. Probably the most winter bike rides that I ever got in on the Long Beach boardwalk. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1900-1901 4.22 0 2 2001-2002 4.88 0 3 1958-1959 5.28 0 4 1871-1872 5.41 0 5 1979-1980 5.45 0 6 1955-1956 5.97 0 7 1943-1944 6.13 0 8 1876-1877 6.40 0 9 1988-1989 6.45 0 10 1946-1947 6.59 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0

Our only spring record snowfall in the 2020s so far happened in May.

We did much better in March during the 2010s than the 2020s so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 0.1 0.1 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

Only the 3rd time on record that northern suburbs like HPN haven’t dropped below 15° by 1-30. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 30 Missing Count 1 2002-01-30 16 0 2 2024-01-30 15 1 - 1950-01-30 15 61 3 2020-01-30 13 2

The 500 mb pattern was closer to La Niña with a deep trough out West and a Southeast ridge. But the raging STJ with all the precipitation was classic El Niño. So a bit of a combination pattern as a function of the much further than west forcing for an El Niño in January.

I was talking about longer range and not inside day 7.

Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. Forecast Verification

I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see.

Yeah, the record +30C SSTs are holding the forcing in place longer now to the west of the Dateline. The old runs from a week ago were more favorable had the convection rapidly weakening. So it looks like the 2nd week of February will actually be warmer than the first week now. New runs stronger forcing west of the Dateline and warmer 2nd week of February Old runs weaker forcing to the west of the Dateline and colder pattern for 2nd week of February

Another winter with top 5 and top 10 warmth around the region to date.

This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place.