bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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It’s almost as impressive as it was last July. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/unprecedented-marine-heat-wave-canadian-atlantic-ocean-1.6986139
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I think the upper ocean heat content is so high that hurricanes and typhoons won’t really shift the surface SSTs as much as they did in the past with lower upper ocean heat content. Remember several years ago how we had one of the most active typhoon seasons on record followed by one of the strongest marine heatwaves during the following winter. The reserve of deep warmth in the WPAC was so strong in the fall of 2019 into 2020 that the record IOD cooling near Indonesia was reversed to record warmth in under 2 months.
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Interesting cloud street pattern over LI and CT with the strong winds and high dew points.
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The 95-96 record winter snowfall in NYC may have been related to the AMO warming which occurred that year. Boston had their snowiest winter in 15 with the brief shift to the +PDO. But the shift only lasted a few years before we entered the record -PDO regime of recent years. The famous 76-77 winter occurred as the PDO was changing from negative to positive. So we seem to get interesting winters around these change points.
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It’s pretty rare to get gusts over 40 mph with dew points over 75° outside a tropical storm or hurricane. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 83 75 77 S28G43
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It might actually be right this time since it’s the first time that the GFS was warmer with a long range heat wave forecast than the Euro.
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I know. It was never this humid for all my trips to Action Park back in the 80s.
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FWN is currently in 1st place for highest average daily average maximum dew point in July at 71.1°. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=FWN&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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The 20-21 mismatch was as if the RONI was so strong in the fall that the MJO 5 peaked in October and it was weak enough in December for other factors to mute the La Niña background state. We saw this during the stronger La Ninas in 10-11 and 17-18. The weaker La Nina’s like 11-12, 16-17, and 22-23 had weaker MJO 5 activity in October which got stronger during the winter. So an inverse MJO relationship during La Ninas between the fall and winter. RONI….OND 2020 -1.52
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We would need a mismatch similar to DJF 20-21 and Jan 22 to see some improvement over the last 2 winters. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/did-northern-hemisphere-get-memo-years-la-niña https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JD035546 Was the mismatch that we saw in December-January really that unusual? We know from previous blog posts (like this one) that the atmosphere varies quite a bit from one La Niña to the next, and the atmosphere never fully resembles the average of all events. To address this question, I evaluated the similarity between the individual December-January 500 hPa maps and the average La Niña pattern (for the 13 moderate-to-strong La Niña episodes). For this calculation, I use the pattern correlation, a metric that summarizes the similarity in a single number: a value of 1 means perfect match, 0 means complete mismatch, and -1 means mirror opposites (3). Pattern correlations between the individual La Niña and average La Niña December – January 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 15°N for the 13 strongest La Niña episodes since 1950. Positive values indicate at least some degree of pattern matching, with 1 indicating a perfect match, and negative values indicate a mismatch between the two patterns. NOAA Climate.gov figure with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data obtained from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. The pattern correlations are usually substantially positive for moderate-to-strong La Niñas, which indicates that most events share some basic similarity with the average La Niña pattern. This confirms that La Niña is a reliable source of predictability outside of the tropics (and a big reason that we have an ENSO Blog!). However, the pattern correlation for the December 2020 – January of 2021 is the lowest of the 13 events and is actually slightly negative. That means you can argue that the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere looked a little more like El Niño than La Niña!
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The global guidance agrees that somebody in the OKX and PHI forecast zones will jackpot higher than 2.50” into Saturday. It will be interesting to see what type of totals the CAMS like the SPC HREF start printing out in a few days. All the ingredients are there for torrential downpours where the best training sets up.
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First time Reading ever had 10 days reaching 95° or higher by July 9th. Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-09 10 0 2 2012-07-09 8 1 - 1925-07-09 8 0 3 1901-07-09 7 0 4 1966-07-09 6 0 - 1911-07-09 6 0 5 2021-07-09 5 0 - 2010-07-09 5 0 - 1999-07-09 5 0 - 1988-07-09 5 0 - 1984-07-09 5 0 - 1921-07-09 5 0 - 1919-07-09 5 0 - 1898-07-09 5 1
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While SMQ is only 9 days into the month as of the update yesterday, the average afternoon heat index is 95.4°. This would be the highest on record for July should it continue for the rest of the month. This is due to the record high dew points so far this month. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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Yeah, those were some of the strongest VP anomalies that we have seen in early January in the MJO 2 region. There was a record marine heatwave at the time there. The RMM charts didn’t really do the forcing there justice. Sometimes the RMM captures the signal better and other times the VP anomalies.
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While SMQs records only began in 1999, they are already on track for one of their highest number of 75° and higher dew point days with 11 days so far. Probably on track for 20 or more days which would make the top 3. 2018 was the first place record holder Total annual 75° dew point days at SMQ since 1999 #1…..33 days….2018 #2….22 days…..2021 #3….20 days….2013 #4…..15 days....2003 #5…..13 days….2020 #6….12 days…..2023….2017….2010 #7…..11 days…..2024….2006 2018 was a year that numerous college dorms had to do mold remediation and relocation of the students due to the record high dew points. https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2018/10/15/mold-mushrooms-inside-william-paterson-university-dorms/1646278002/
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I am sure he must since the models have been recently forecasting more SAL and shear after Beryl.
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Big SAL outbreak should keep things quieter next few weeks. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html
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November seems like one of the only months in recent years when we have been able to get even a small cold departure.
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Newark is currently in 5th place for most 90° days by by July 8th at 16 days. The average number of 90° days last decade is 33. So Newark is probably on track for 40+ days this year. The only thing which could get in the way of reaching closer to 50 would be a shift to a much wetter pattern like in 2021. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending most 90° days by July 8th and seasonal total 2010-07-08….21…54 1991-07-08 ….19…41 2021-07-08 ….18…41 1986-07-08 ….18…22 2022-07-08 …17…49 2024-07-08 …16 ? 2012-07-08…..16…33 1994-07-08 ....16…39 1993-07-08 …16….49 1987-07-08 …16 …37
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A ridge axis out near the Aleutians is always going to be warmer than average for the Northeast like we have seen in the general 500 mb composite over the last 9 winters. We would need some help from the MJO 8 like we got back in January 2022 to at least get one interesting winter month with a break from the dominant MJO 4-7 forcing.
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It’s a general repeat of its 22-23 La Niña forecast. Did very well with the main ridge axis over the Aleutians and the Eastern US. The trough verified deeper in the West and the AO was more negative than forecast with more Greenland blocking. Current forecast November 2023 forecast Winter 22-23 verification
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One of the bigger issues in recent years has been the models underestimating the WAR day 6-10. So it’s no surprise the WAR is trending stronger the closer we get. But with these record high dew points there is always going to be convection around. We usually need to get within the range of the CAMs like HREF for more specific forecasts. While these CAMS can signal the potential for heavy rains, the exact location is usually off. That’s why I like to look at the Upton and Mt Holly zones in totality for what our options could be. Then wait until we get closer in to refine. Same goes for winter systems since we still haven’t gotten to the point of perfect IMBY forecasts even into the shorter range.
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That Euro run would make it an historic 10th warmer to record warm winters in a row for places like NYC and the Northeast region in general. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9
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We knew that the bulk of the moisture with Beryl would go west from a few days ago due to the record breaking WAR to 603 dam. Our next chance of more widespread heavy convection will probably hold off until Thursday into Saturday with the slowly moving front. The Euro was too dry last weekend compared to SPC HREF that did much better with the heavy rains. The GFS has the possibility for 2”+ with that round of convection where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the rain on weekends theme going back to March 1st. Data for July 5, 2024 through July 7, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT DANBURY COOP 3.17 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.04 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 2.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.81 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.63 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.60 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.58 CT GUILFORD COOP 2.52 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 2.47 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 2.33 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 2.30
