bluewave
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The 100° heat should be more extensive tomorrow with deeper SW flow expected. The 100° heat in NJ stayed west of the sea breeze front in Mercer County. Places like Newark will probably have a better chance tomorrow.
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That was the snowiest March on record for parts of Long Island. It was a great example of a snowy pattern before the SSW repeating after. But in recent years we didn’t have much snow before the SSWs so the period after greatly underperformed. In 17-18 we already had the record 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. So March picked up where the earlier portion the winter left off before the 80° warmth in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 21.7 0 3 2015 19.7 0 4 2009 13.6 0 5 2005 13.3 0 - 1993 13.3 0 6 1984 13.0 0 7 1996 12.0 0 8 1969 11.0 0 9 1978 10.4 0 10 2001 10.3 0 Monthly Data for March 2018 for Suffolk County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 33.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31.9 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 30.5 FARMINGVILLE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 27.8 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 LAKE GROVE 1.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 COMMACK 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 24.4 CENTERPORT COOP 21.7 WADING RIVER 2.0 NW CoCoRaHS 21.3 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 21.0 RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 20.3
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The first clue was the near record MJO 5 for a La Niña October. It was able to weaken in December and allow the colder MJO 8-3 from after Christmas into early January. This was one of the best December 26th to January 8 periods for snow and cold on Long Island in the last 50 years. Then the record MJO 4-7 which began in mid to late January peaking in February completely reversed the pattern. There were also several papers which linked the amplitude of the MJO in those phases to SSW and historic March snowfall on Long Island. One of the wildest winters for extremes we have ever experienced lasting into March.
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The winter was actually cold going into February. But the record warmth in February shifted the whole winter average warm. It was the first time we had 80° warmth during the winter around the NYC area. Boston Dec 17….30.7…..avg….34.7…..-4.0 Jan 18….28.6…..avg….29.0…..-0.4 Feb 18….38.1……avg…..31.7…..+6.4
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DJF 2017-2018 finished +0.7 in Boston at 32.5° vs the 1981-2010 mean of 31.8°.
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The SPC HREF had the storms in CNJ.
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I am just pointing this out for the current atmospheric response which is leading the official ONI. It’s probably why we are getting the robust EWB this week. While it’s hard to dispute the warmer signals for the coming winter, it’s still uncertain whether we can see some mismatch periods to make things a little more interesting than 22-23 was. The bar has been so low the last 2 winters than any small improvement would be welcome.
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The atmospheric La Niña response is one of the strongest that we have seen in early July similar to 2022. Notice how strong the VP anomalies are over the Maritime Continent. My guess is that the near record -PDO and WPAC warm pool are more important right now than the official ONI.
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Close to 100° today west of the sea breeze front in NJ.
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The last really cooler summer was way back in 2009 in the Northeast .So we have had 12 out of the last 15 summers here record warmer to much warmer than average. Even the relatively cooler summers of 2014, 2017, and 2023 weren’t that much below normal. It’s funny how the record 9 warmer than average winter run which began in December 2015 came right after one of our coldest Februaries in 2015. The same way the summer warm pattern shifted after the record cool June and July period. So it was as if those brief and isolated much cooler months were part of a loading pattern of sorts to the much warmer climate we find ourselves in here in the Northeast. Places like BHO have seen 53 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest which was in February 2015.
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NW Europe has been the place to be.
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Ridiculous dew point spread tomorrow on the HRRR in NJ. Dew points near 80° along the Jersey Shore. With upper 50s dew points a little further west.
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Reminds me of how the long range guidance repeatedly tries to weaken the MJO 4-6 convection with the record warm SSTs near the Maritime Continent.
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Yeah. The HRRR has 102° in NJ with lower dew points and much higher dew points east of NYC with a very strong sea breeze. So another very well defined sea breeze front. Areas north of the LIE from Huntington to Commack may make it to 95° before the sea breeze arrives with dews in the 70s. Very high heat indices possible near your area over 100°.
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Another very well defined sea breeze front with the 100° heat in NJ Monday and Tuesday. Very impressive dew point pooling just east of the front into the upper 70s to around 80°. The timing of the front on Wednesday will determine if NJ can make it 3 in a row for the 100° heat.
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Another all-time rainfall event in the Northeast.
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NYC hasn’t been able to get higher than 98° since 2014. Data for January 1, 2014 through July 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 99 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98
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That was the only time we had low 80s dew points with 100° temperatures. They did a study on it. The corn sweat got trapped under a strong low level inversion leading to the record high dew points and heat indices. https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/77/7/1520-0477_1996_077_1507_tjhwit_2_0_co_2.pdf
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The 128° heat index at Newark on 7-15-95 is still the highest on record there.
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Yeah, this was one of my heavier hourly totals since moving up here last August at .84 in an hour. But last September was my heaviest with 1.53 in under an hour. Record wet pattern in CT since last July.
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With the 100° heat in the forecast for the coming week, this could be the first time we had 100° heat in June and July since 2011. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2021 103 97 99 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 2024 100 94 M 100 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100
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Probably starting to get some roadway flooding around the metro with 1-2 inches of rain in a short time. Manhattan mesonet 3h Precip: 1.72″
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This presentation from 2014 showed how some of the climate models were forecasting these lower summer pressures over the Arctic. This has been the pattern we have seen since 2013. Much different from the 2007 to 2012 era. It’s one of the reasons that the rate of sea ice decline slowed during 2013 to 2023 relative to 2007 to 2012.
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1.52” in the last hour at the Manhattan mesonet. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Classic case of the MJO 8-2 in December going into 4-6 in January effectively ending the winter on January 1st.
