bluewave

I guess it can get a little confusing at times when people discuss blocking on the Atlantic side. Most blocks in recent years in this sector have been registering as -AOs rather than -NAOs. That’s why I like looking at the 500mb height anomalies to get a better read on the situation. In the past we would get the -NAO to fall in tandem with the -AO. But these days during the winters it has been more -AO dominant. Plus we have the more frequent south based blocks during the 2020s linking up with the Southeast ridge. While in the past this often wasn’t the case. Probably related to the record warming of the Gulf Stream and Atlantic.

Yeah, it’s being driven by the continuing record marine heatwave near Japan.

Maybe as soon as next spring?

That’s pretty much to be expected from the NAM since it hasn’t been upgraded since March 2017. Over 3.00” now on Eastern LI. This is where the signal for the heaviest rains have been from most models since its closest to the subtropical low. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

The East End of Long Island is currently getting very heavy downpours with 1.50” estimated in the last hour.

CT Shoreline the big winner again with over an inch the further east you do. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: CT-NL-46 Station Name: Mystic 3.4 NW Observation Date 7/29/2024 7:00 AM Submitted 7/29/2024 7:08 AM Gauge Catch 1.23 in. Notes @19:00 =0”, OVC. <> @07:00.OBS: 1.23” overnight, 63°F, moderat

The cooler pattern over the last 10 days allowed Newark to fall back away from the lead in 90° days. So Newark dropped from 3rd place down to 8th. A bit unusual to get a cooler pattern in what is typically one of the warmest 10 day periods of the year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-18 26 0 2 2021-07-18 24 0 - 1993-07-18 24 0 3 2024-07-18 23 0 - 1991-07-18 23 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-28 36 0 2 1993-07-28 31 0 3 2022-07-28 29 0 - 1987-07-28 29 0 4 1994-07-28 28 0 5 2021-07-28 27 0 - 1991-07-28 27 0 6 2011-07-28 25 0 7 2024-07-28 24 0 - 2012-07-28 24 0 - 1999-07-28 24 0 - 1952-07-28 24 0 - 1949-07-28 24 0

Depends on the MJO. Frequent MJO 4-7s will get you -EPO/- PNAs at times when the Aleutian ridge becomes more poleward. A -EPO/-PNA is a warm pattern with a La Niña in the Northeast. This is when we hit 80° back in February 2018. In order to get it cold in the Northeast we need a -EPO +PNA like we got from December 2017 into early January 2018. But that required a MJO 8 pattern.

The latest HREF mean has one area of heavier rain further east closer to the low and a secondary area in NJ with the IVT-like feature similar to the GFS.

It’s interesting how strong the 500mb La Niña pattern is across North America is despite the official ONI lagging behind. This -EPO +PNA and strong WAR east of New England were associated which much cooler Nino 3.4 ONIs during the summers of 2018, 2021, and 2022. Those 3 so far are the best 500 mb matches this summer. So my guess is that the strong -PDO and WPAC warm pool are driving this robust La Niña background state at the present time.

Hopefully, that IVT like feature can deliver for you guys in CNJ and you don’t underperform again. But these features can be fickle. So not guarantees just yet.

When the +PNA linked up with a south based block like in December 2020 the pattern was much warmer than if the the -NAO -AO block was further north. Probably a result of the much warmer SSTs off the East Coast boosting the ridge near New England. In the older days with colder SSTs this would have been a much colder December pattern in the Northeast. The greatest SST and 500 mb height variance between all the other strong +PNA -AO Decembers since 1950 is east of New England. The lower heights near Alaska were probably a function of the strong -PDO background state in the Pacific. So the very strong +PNA block was anchored a little further south than usual. It was the only such case of a greater than +1.20 +PNA combined with a lower than -1.500 -AO in December since 1950. So December 2020 was much warmer than past strongly +PNA and -AO Decembers. It’s one of the reasons that we have had a record 9 warmer winters in a row for the Northeast. Since it’s easier to get a warm winter when past teleconnections manifest differently in a warmer climate and don’t produce cold patterns like they did in a colder era. December 2020 compared to all previous Decembers with PNA greater than +1.20 and AO lower than -1.500 since 1950

The +PNA NE PAC block in December 2020 was one for the record books. It was the highest December +PNA on record for a La Niña as strong as that one. There were some clues from the October MJO indicator. But that La Niña mismatch was quite impressive.

That near record 500 mb block over the Arctic in June must have had a big effect since a favorable July pattern like this in the past would never have been accompanied by such a steep area decline.

The 500 mb pattern generally leads the SST response. The +PDO and TNH SST pattern for the 13-14 winter had its origins with the very strong NE PAC block during the summer of 2013. The block just kept stronger right into 2015. Then we had the strong reversal during the winters which has lasted 9 years so far. The best NE PAC blocking since then has mostly been during the warm season leading to all the record heat, drought, and wild fires over Western North America. We did get a few decent intervals of NE PAC cold season blocking in December 2017, 2020, and Jan 2022. But the duration was too short to tilt the balance if the winter colder than average. The wall to wall blocking out there during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters were really memorable even if it was short lived during the winters which have followed.

Looks like the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be further east with the subtropical low looping back into the Cape on Monday.

Pretty much the opposite of the LI South Shore up here in the rainfall department. The CT Shoreline is in the 4.00” to 7.00” range in July and grassy areas are green and lush. I can remember the frequent dry patterns this time of year when I was back on the LI South Shore. Monthly Data for July 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 7.12 CT GUILFORD COOP 7.11 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 7.03 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 6.80 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 6.74 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 6.58 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.54 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.53 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.52 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.47 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 6.34 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.31 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 6.28 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 6.24 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.21 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.19 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 6.11 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.04 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.96 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 5.86 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.84 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.77 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.73 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 5.70 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.68 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 5.65 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.59 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.56 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.53 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 5.46 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.45 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.41 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 5.35 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 5.29 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.28 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.24 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 5.23 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.18 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.08 CT OLD LYME 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 5.05 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 4.92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.92 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 4.81 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 4.80 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 4.79 CT DANBURY COOP 4.67 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.66 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.66 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.58 NY WEST POINT COOP 4.56 NJ HARRISON COOP 4.54 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.54 NY SYOSSET COOP 4.51 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 4.46 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.44 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 4.41 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 4.40 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.37 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 4.37 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.36 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 4.29 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 4.25 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 4.17 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.15 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.14 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.13 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 4.13 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 4.12 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.12 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 4.12 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 4.06 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.05 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.04 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 4.02 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 4.01 NY STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 3.99 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3.99 CT GROTON 2.9 E CoCoRaHS 3.98 CT BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.95 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 3.95 NY BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.93 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.93 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.89 NY ST. JAMES COOP 3.88 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.88 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.86 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 3.84 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.82 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.81 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.72 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 3.67 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.66 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 3.65 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.64 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.63 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.60 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.58 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.58 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.53 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.51 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.50 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.49 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3.48 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.46 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.45 NJ WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 3.44 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 3.41 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3.40 NJ SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.33 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.33 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.33 NY WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.31 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.29 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.28 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 3.27 NJ MONTVALE 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.27 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.27 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.22 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 3.22 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.21 NJ WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.16 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.15 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.14 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 3.14 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.14 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.13 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.12 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.11 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 3.11 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.08 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.07 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.04 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.04 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.00 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.00 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 2.95 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 2.91 NJ WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 2.84 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 2.84 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.79 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 2.70 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 2.68 NJ OAKLAND 1.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.64 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.59 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.58 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 2.52 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 2.49 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 2.47 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 2.45 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.44 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 2.39 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 2.38 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 2.37 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 2.36 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 2.33 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 2.28 NJ MAYWOOD 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 2.25 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 2.24 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.23 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 2.18 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 2.17 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.16 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.10 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 2.10 NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 2.03 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.03 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.03 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.02 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 2.01 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 2.00 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 1.95 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.88 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.87 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1.86 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.84 NY PINE BUSH 3.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.81 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.80 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 1.79 NY AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 1.75 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.75 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 1.74 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 1.74 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 1.69 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 1.68 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.60 CT LEDYARD 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 1.56 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 1.52 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.52 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 1.47 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 1.35 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.35 NY BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 1.29 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 1.29 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 1.25 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.09 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 1.07 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.02 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.90 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.59

I think the process by which we got to that forcing state in July 1999 differed from what we are seeing this year. July 1999 was already the 2nd summer of a very strong La Niña with very cold SSTs in the EPAC leading to subsidence there. The Maritime Cintinent forcing was strong since it was still warmer relative to the EPAC. This year the EPAC is still warmer than average due to the lingering warmth from the El Niño. The WPAC record warmth is currently the warmest SSTs in the Pacific. So the strongest forcing is located in that region. Past La Niña events before the warming of the WPAC were more defined by the magnitude of the cooling in the ONI areas. These days it’s the magnitude of the warmth across the WPAC which seems to define the La Niña background state. This is how the weaker La Ninas in 16-17 and 22-23 managed to create such a strong La Niña background pattern even if the ONI SST’s didnt suggest such warm La Niña winters. As for the tropics, the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña background favor a very active season. So if the forcing comes closer to the Atlantic and Africa in the coming weeks, then it will be off to the races for Atlantic tropical activity. So 2 out of the 3 factors are lined up for a big hurricane season. We just need the forcing to shift leading to more rising air and less dust over the Atlantic for things to really take off. It’s still very early in the season with plenty of time to see how things verify.

Yeah, this is why La Nada winters like 01-02 and 13-14 are so dependent on other factors like the state of the PDO. The 01-02 La Nada had the very strong -PDO pattern. So the 500 mb pattern was a La Niña on steroids. Conversely, the 13-14 La Nada was all about the strong +PDO signature east of Japan and the record TNH off the West Coast. So those two factors dominated and lead to the amazing winter.

Warmest departures this month were west of the sea breeze front. But areas closer to the sea breeze and east did better with rainfall. The good news is that these maps are finally coloring in Long Island for departures and not leaving it blank.

Looks like the offshore low should be closer to eastern sections early next week. But there still could be a little inverted trough feature over NJ. So it may be a nowcasters special to see where the best convection ends up focusing since IVTs can be fickle.

My guess is the reason that the 2022 hurricane season wasn’t as active as forecast was due to the stronger Maritime Continent forcing leading to more subsidence over the Western Atlantic in August and September. 2017 didn’t have this issue so it was much more active. This is probably why the Atlantic has been so quiet in recent weeks. So we’ll probably need to see a decrease in Maritime Continent forcing next few weeks for the Atlantic to become active. The developing La Niña and record SSTs would suggest a much above average Atlantic hurricane season. But the final piece of the equation would be more favorable forcing. Plenty of time for things to shift allowing the more active forecasts to verify since it’s still very early.

The Maritime Continent forcing is even stronger than usual for a developing La Niña in July due to the stronger WPAC warm pool. It may be why the Atlantic hurricane activity has been quieter than expected since Beryl. The 500 mb pattern has also been similar to a very strong La Niña response across the CONUS with the classic Niña ridge axis near New England and the PAC NW. But the strength of the ridges are more exaggerated than we typically see with La Ninas. This has also been the case with the La Ninas in recent summers. So another case of the WPAC warm pool leading the actual La Niña ONI SST readings.

Average temperature at SMQ is running warmer than 2010 through July 25th. A close 2nd in 90° days at 23. 3rd place for 95° days by July 25th. The average max daily dew point is just ahead of 2013 at 73.6° with a few days to go. Records at SMQ started in 1999. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-25 75.2 0 2 2010-07-25 74.5 0 3 2013-07-25 74.3 0 4 1999-07-25 74.0 8 5 2020-07-25 73.8 0 - 2005-07-25 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-25 25 1 - 2010-07-25 25 24 2 2024-07-25 23 0 3 2022-07-25 22 0 4 2021-07-25 20 1 5 1999-07-25 19 159 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999-07-25 11 159 2 2012-07-25 10 1 3 2024-07-25 8 0 4 2022-07-25 7 0 - 2011-07-25 7 0 5 2002-07-25 5 2 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Absolutely, the low level smoke early last June was off the charts. Those fires were much closer in Eastern Canada. This is higher altitude smoke originating over the western portion of the continent.