Stebo

Good vibes from a part 2.

The struggle is that the models keep pulling a mcs ahead which the models want to attach the main low with it or jump the lowest pressure to that. I just dont buy a mcs induced low pulling everything ahead. Can it happen sure, will it though, I'm betting no. The confluence will be an issue but I feel like we had this same issue with GHD 2.0 and that completely ended up being a bad model output. I need to go back and read that thread to confirm but I definitely feel like that was the same issue being shown and it ended up being wrong as possible.

Yes it started going north then shit the bed.

Yeah there are some issues that definitely look off though too. that piece of vorticity that shoots way ahead

Yeah, though some of that confluence is because of the shit that shoots east, idk if I buy that at all.

Big bump north.

It didn't get good until around 30 hours.

Yes, the NAM is the easiest toss in the world.

North but still easy toss, grossly underdoing the strength of the low and cold sector precip.

Right price, lord knows no one is going to pay for him.

At the time it was good, but this is how the GFS has been, bad until the storm gets close.

I would like to lock in my answer, it is 18z GFS.

You being spectacularly wrong

You dont need phasing to have a big storm. Like wow you are really going to fall on your sword with this one. GHD 2015 wasn't a phased system and I got 15" of snow. Or was i just imagining that snow storm.

Like seriously how can one be so wrong on literally everything.

You are so unbelievably wrong.

Which means the op is on the southern end of that envelope.

I would take this and move it north. Too much biting of one run shifting south on a few models while others staying consistent or still moving north.

Old school images, gotta remember to convert mm to inches for QPF

This upgrade has absolutely destroyed realistic cold sector precip. I just don't get what they did but they did something bad.

Oh yeah there are definitely people like that out there.

Same or even younger tbh.

I have been doing weather observing for almost 12 years.

I'd say its about same spot on the mean, but the cold sector is more generous (more realistic) this run.