The Euro this run is too progressive and the trough never stalls out. The ridge ahead of it is too weak. If this is a trend starting this is going to be a massive bust.
Which is why I don't buy all the rain here, storm is in NY state and its raining here? Not a chance especially with most of the critical thicknesses being favorable and the temps at or above 925 being below zero. Would be heavy wet snow.
GEFS say you can toss the op GFS 18z run, almost all of them have a significant snowstorm in the lakes most of which are in the eastern half of the lakes.
Every model so far has evolved it differently, any sort of consensus vanished. Only thing you can say is there will be a trough in the east at some point but how we get there is completely unknown.