coastalplainsnowman

@donsutherland1sorry if I've missed it, but have you done a preliminary run of that winter misery index (for lack of a better term?) Am really curious how this year is shaping up in that regard. Per KFRG we're at officially 168 hours since the last time we were above freezing. It's crazy to think that with a little "luck" it could be Valentine's day before we're above freezing again. For snow and cold, if that holds true, this seems like it will be among the closest we've come to 1993/1994 that we've seen in terms of snow, snowcover, and cold.

Until that storm, I always used to say, just from experience, to never get excited about rain turning to "wraparound" snow. (Not just wraparound snow, which happens, but wraparound snow which started as rain.) I'd seen it predicted a bunch of times and never saw it materialize beyond a coating at most. But since this storm, I have to temper whatever I say with 'except Christmas 2002.' I've never seen a storm which pasted everything white with snow. Not just stop signs, but entire fences top to bottom. Just a really unique storm.

I'm always reminded of the Feb or March 1999 storm which was to my knowledge not on anyone's radar for NY snowfall but overnight backed in / filled in over Montauk resulting in a 14" storm w/blizzard conditions there, 6" to the forks, but cloudy at the Nassau/Suffolk border.

Not to sound like a you know what, but my AccuWeather forecast which has said 1-3” for the last few days now says 2-4. LI south shore Nassau/Suffolk border. What do you think is their rationale? Edit: they’re not hyping nor even mentioning our area being impacted, just matter of factly have a 2-4 out there for Saturday night

This map is funny - it's practically a photo negative of what we wish would happen in the northeast.

This is like watching a Jet game where they're hanging in there but you know what's likely going to happen. Not what's definitely going to happen, just what's likely going to happen. It's turned out favorably a few times before, so you keep watching, but deep down you just know you should be cleaning the garage or changing the oil right now.

The haha emoji replies have been great. When I see them as I read through the thread it's like there's a laugh track now.

Nostalgic "1980s Weather Channel WSW Alert During Local Weather" font.

Crushes Forum Spectacularly, apparently

If it's a hit, you must acquit.

Calling it "Snow Sandy" is gold.

I'm sure. Democratization of the models has taken off exponentially, it feels like since last year. I know that probably sounds funny coming from hobbyists-at-best like me. Put it this way: if you told me even two years ago that in 2026 my wife would be yelling to me from the other room that 'my guy is saying that the GFS is giving us a lot of snow but that the NAM has more sleet' I would have laughed. Yet here we are.

Great. More white sand beach 'replenished' with dirt. Who do they think they're fooling? Just say "sorry, we had to replace it with dirt."

A Tuesday and a Friday. Stuck in slow traffic in the snow in the Tuesday storm, with the 1010 WINS guy saying it's looking like we'll have a repeat on Friday, which of course materialized. Best snow on snow to date for me. Neither tremendous in its own right, but with both what was on the ground already and what fell on the Friday both being substantial - it was great.

Shoot, Sunday is February. Sun angle is definitely going to play a role in this one.

".. a very special crossover episode of American Weather"

Ratios must be really good here, because other than for a short time between 7:45 and 8:15 this morning it really hasn't looked like much. Yet an average of four measurements has me at 3.75."

Hopefully that sleet line hits the kind of traffic I run into every time I go from DC to LI. Let it sit on the Belt for 2 hours too before it makes its way out to me.

I looked this up the other day and posted about it - I'll go back and find it. The formula is surprisingly straight forward. It does not take location into effect, just accumulations, land area, and population. Edit: Found it. Pasting it in here b/c I can't figure out how to include a link to the original post. As you can see it uses an example. I'm not clear on the summation part, but am just speaking here to the variables apparently used in the formula. I'm sure there's someone on here much smarter than me about this who can correct me.

Frigid but calm is great.

As always it's about expectations rather than actual accumulations, to a silly extreme. Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars.

I noticed that my Sunday overnight forecast changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Snow/Sleet", while all the totals remained the same. Does anyone know if Is there actually a technical definition of "Wintry Mix"? Was it changed to "Snow/Sleet" because "Wintry Mix" actually means snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and freezing rain is now no longer expected, or something along those lines? Or is it arbitrary?

How does that old saying go? When snowman19 appears in the thread, that means 6 more inches of sleet? Just kidding, appreciate your pov..

This is great, but I was waiting for some reference to its Achilles' heel, not that I would know what that might be.

You could drive from the Texas/Mexico border to north central Vermont right now and be under a WSW the entire way. Wild.