coastalplainsnowman

The haha emoji replies have been great. When I see them as I read through the thread it's like there's a laugh track now.

Nostalgic "1980s Weather Channel WSW Alert During Local Weather" font.

Crushes Forum Spectacularly, apparently

If it's a hit, you must acquit.

Calling it "Snow Sandy" is gold.

I'm sure. Democratization of the models has taken off exponentially, it feels like since last year. I know that probably sounds funny coming from hobbyists-at-best like me. Put it this way: if you told me even two years ago that in 2026 my wife would be yelling to me from the other room that 'my guy is saying that the GFS is giving us a lot of snow but that the NAM has more sleet' I would have laughed. Yet here we are.

Great. More white sand beach 'replenished' with dirt. Who do they think they're fooling? Just say "sorry, we had to replace it with dirt."

A Tuesday and a Friday. Stuck in slow traffic in the snow in the Tuesday storm, with the 1010 WINS guy saying it's looking like we'll have a repeat on Friday, which of course materialized. Best snow on snow to date for me. Neither tremendous in its own right, but with both what was on the ground already and what fell on the Friday both being substantial - it was great.

Shoot, Sunday is February. Sun angle is definitely going to play a role in this one.

".. a very special crossover episode of American Weather"

Ratios must be really good here, because other than for a short time between 7:45 and 8:15 this morning it really hasn't looked like much. Yet an average of four measurements has me at 3.75."

Hopefully that sleet line hits the kind of traffic I run into every time I go from DC to LI. Let it sit on the Belt for 2 hours too before it makes its way out to me.

I looked this up the other day and posted about it - I'll go back and find it. The formula is surprisingly straight forward. It does not take location into effect, just accumulations, land area, and population. Edit: Found it. Pasting it in here b/c I can't figure out how to include a link to the original post. As you can see it uses an example. I'm not clear on the summation part, but am just speaking here to the variables apparently used in the formula. I'm sure there's someone on here much smarter than me about this who can correct me.

Frigid but calm is great.

As always it's about expectations rather than actual accumulations, to a silly extreme. Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars.

I noticed that my Sunday overnight forecast changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Snow/Sleet", while all the totals remained the same. Does anyone know if Is there actually a technical definition of "Wintry Mix"? Was it changed to "Snow/Sleet" because "Wintry Mix" actually means snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and freezing rain is now no longer expected, or something along those lines? Or is it arbitrary?

How does that old saying go? When snowman19 appears in the thread, that means 6 more inches of sleet? Just kidding, appreciate your pov..

This is great, but I was waiting for some reference to its Achilles' heel, not that I would know what that might be.

You could drive from the Texas/Mexico border to north central Vermont right now and be under a WSW the entire way. Wild.

SE Nassau lol. I think the warm nose heard me talking bad about it.

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose." On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross. If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

It's a good point. We're going to go back below freezing in a few hours and potentially not see above freezing again until not just the middle of next week, but middle of the *following* week. By that point the first calm 40 degree day with sunshine, whenever it happens again, is going to feel like a beach day.

I know this is a Master Of The Obvious thing to say, but the whole tone of the board leading up to these events, other than for the few who are able to keep emotions out of it, is entirely driven by expectations. The 12-18" for the city / LI being tossed around starting 3 days ago virtually guaranteed that there would be a lot of unhappy people. Had the early numbers been 1-3 and out to sea and evolved into even 4-8" plus sleet, the mood would be so much more chipper. Meanwhile, I can go back to now two different times this winter where there was much lamenting about how we were going to be cold and dry forever. Yet here we are again.

We should like both publications as they would have the storm going more to the right. The New York Times would have the low tracking over Pennsylvania. Relax just having some fun, submitting a post without the word sleet in it, except for that one time.

Happy to be convinced otherwise, but while I've seen storms trend consistently north, and less frequently storms trend consistently south, have we seen many storms trend consistently in one direction in all the major models 96-72 hours out, then suddenly and significantly reverse course? I assume that we don't see that much because as we get closer and closer to the event, the more likely the models are to be accurate?