donsutherland1

So far, Mobile has picked up 2.8" of snow today. That breaks the daily record of a trace that was set in 1979 and tied in 2022. Meanwhile, at Gulf Breeze, FL, the ground is now dusted by snow and sea smoke is rising from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, at New Orleans:

From mPING:

1/8 mile visibility

It’s from Houston (3 SE). That’s not the official measurement.

A snowstorm for the ages is blanketing the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some select observations: Baton Rouge: New Orleans: Webcam image from New Orleans: Gulfport: Mobile:

It still doesn't look like a disaster, but it will be warmer relative to normal than January has been. I reserve judgment about the second half of February, but can't rule out a break to a much warmer pattern for at least a time. The Great Lakes Region might have some opportunities to increase their seasonal snowfall amounts with a wetter pattern developing. Whether the storms cut will have a big impact farther east, especially for the Middle Atlantic region.

New Orleans webcams: https://wxyzwebcams.com/en/webcam-1023.php New Orleans Superdome:

Houston (EarthCam):

Some 1" amounts through 6:50 am CST:

Yes, it's now beginning to show up prominently.

A historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is underway. Already, Houston has seen its first measurable snowfall since February 15, 2021 with 0.2" yesterday. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The only storm to bring measurable snowfall to Houston, New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, and Tallahassee, as is likely with the ongoing storm, was the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm. Some snowfall amounts of 1" or above have already been measured. The 1/21 0z HREF: Parts of the region are even under an extremely rare blizzard warning: A contingency table for measurable snow events at select Gulf Coast cities:

This morning, Newark had a low temperature of 7°. That was its first single-digit low temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped to 5°.

A potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is getting underway. Light snow is now falling in New Orleans and a blizzard warning is in effect for parts of Louisiana. Below is a measurable snowfall contingency table for select cities.

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely.

Philadelphia didn’t have any significant snowfalls.

Latest HREF:

IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now. The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City. If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds: Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8") Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast. February 12, 1899: February 13, 1899: February 14, 1899: EPS: January 22 12z EPS:January 23 12z:

How the Pattern Verified: What I thought was plausible: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Outcome at Central Park: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 1.6"; Total: 3.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: None - 4" or more: None Outcome at JFK Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.5"; January 11: 0.4"; January 19: 2.2"; Total: 3.1") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Outcome at LaGuardia Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 3.6"; Total: 5.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Synoptic details can't be reliably forecast more than 5-7 days out. Those details are crucial and they made the difference in the outcome. Overall, the pattern produced in the larger Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, just not in the New York City area (no moderate or significant snowfalls). Boston picked up 5.0" during January 19-20, 2025. Baltimore saw 6.6" on January 6, 2025 and Washington, DC received 7.2" on January 6, 2025. Richmond picked up 3.5" during January 5-6, 2025.

The January 19, 2025 snowstorm underperformed in the I-95 Corridor. However, snowfall amounts were still much higher than those suggested by the 1/17 18z RGEM for which "victory" had prematurely been declared. RGEM Amounts vs. Actual Amounts: Bridgeport: 0.7" (Actual: 2.3") Islip: 0.2" (Actual: 2.3") New York City: 0.5" (Actual: Central Park: 1.6"; JFK Airport: 2.2"; LaGuardia Airport: 3.6") Newark: 0.6" (Actual: 2.4") Philadelphia: 0.5" (Actual: 2.0")

The storm that underperformed in much of the region has now departed and an unseasonably cold air mass is in place. Overall, the forecast was too aggressive. Final snowfall estimates and verification: Allentown: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.7") Baltimore: 2"-4" (Actual: 1.0") Boston: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.0") Islip: 2"-4" (Actual: 2.3") New York City: 3"-6" (Actual: 1.6") Newark: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.4") Philadelphia: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.0") Washington, DC: 1"-3" (Actual: 0.3") From tomorrow through Thursday, New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. However, the air mass is not quite as cold as had previously been modeled. Temperatures could still fall into the single digits for lows in New York City and Philadelphia. The last single-digit lows were as follows: Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°) Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°) New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°) Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°) Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°) Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was: New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°) There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively. A storm will track well south and east of the region from tomorrow into Thursday. Extreme southeast New Jersey and the Twin Forks of Long Island could see some flurries or perhaps some light snow. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The AO went negative on Saturday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. With the AO likely to spend time at or above +2.000 afterward into at least early February, odds of a 6" or above snowfall in New York City will be very low. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January. Moderation is likely during the opening of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +18.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.545 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.4° (4.5° below normal).

Photos from the snowstorm taken at Nichols Preserve (Greenwich, CT) where about 4" of powdery snow fell.

Yes. I agree with you.

Yes. My forecast was too high.

The cutoff date for the number was through Sunday. Some of the snow will also be recorded with next week's update. Either way, the EPS missed the timing and likelihood of the snow from a week out.

The final outcome: It should be noted that Boston received a storm total 5.0" snowfall.