donsutherland1

Clearly, the rise of Social Media has made near real-time analyses and updates feasible. Many look forward to such fresh information. However, there is a real quality issue. Sensationalism is all too common (often with the most extreme model maps being posted for upcoming events). Plain misunderstanding of complex relationships is another one e.g., I recall one Twitter account was suggesting that a high-amplitude MJO event during June 2015 was unusual for what was a rising El Niño event when, in fact, during that time of year such events often take place during strengthening El Niños on account of shorter wave lengths. Overly deterministic assessments that ignore uncertainty is another matter. Having said this, on balance Social Media has been beneficial in the dissemination of meteorological information. But to realize such benefits, one needs to be able to differentiate between quality sources and others. Many who actively participate on various weather forums can readily differentiate. I'm not so sure the less engaged general public can.

Joe Lundberg is still listed on the Accuweather site: https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/joe-lundberg In addition, he is referenced on the WHUD radio site (noting his affiliation with Accuweather): http://www.whud.com/meet-the-whud-djs-joe-lundberg/ He simply might not be blogging any longer.

January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week.

The Euro should be interesting. Its 12z run was a rather large departure from its earlier runs and the relatively consistent GGEM.

Both the 0z NAM and GFS have taken a step toward the upper air pattern that has been shown on the GGEM.

40.0" snow, including 9.7" in December. February 11-12, 2006 saw 26.9" snow fall at Central Park, which was the Park's biggest snowfall on record until 27.5" fell on January 22-24, 2016. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

The latest date for the first reading in the 40s is October 20, which was set in 2005.

To date, New York City (Central Park) has had no minimum temperatures below 50°. Since 1869, only nine previous years saw the first sub-50° reading after October 10. A number of those winters saw average to above average snowfall. The relevant nine winters are below: 1898-99: 55.9” snowfall 1909-10: 27.2” snowfall 1910-11: 25.2” snowfall 1955-56: 33.5” snowfall 1969-70: 25.6” snowfall 1995-96: 75.6” snowfall 2002-03: 49.3” snowfall 2005-06: 40.0” snowfall 2007-08: 11.9” snowfall At this time, it is premature to reach firm conclusions about the upcoming winter.

It appears that the September 9 figure of 4,472,225 square kilometers (JAXA) could be this year's minimum sea ice extent. That would be the highest figure since 2014 when the minimum extent was 4,884,120 square kilometers.

Arctic sea ice extent is mirroring the evolution of the summer 2014 decline very closely. That would imply a minimum figure of between 4.4 million and 4.5 million square kilometers. https://s26.postimg.org/64xg85hrt/Arctic08292017.jpg

In March, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13,679,429 square kilometers. That broke the March record low average of 13,729,002 square kilometers, which had been set in 2015. For the January 1-March 31 period, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13,294,815 square kilometers in March. That set a new record low average for the first three months of the year. The previous record was 13,430,714 square kilometers, which was set last year.

During February, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13,566,787 square kilometers. That set a new record low average for February. The previous record was 13,595,448 square kilometers, which was set in 2016. These figures all use a 2/1-28 timeline.

Lowest January Arctic Sea Ice Extent Averages: 1. 12,664,550 km2, 2017 2. 12,859,672 km2, 2016 3. 12,895,995 km2, 2011

On JAXA, the latest figure was almost 500,000 sq. km. below the previous daily record low extent.

Some temporary declines in January have occurred in the past. Statistically, it is almost improbable that we have already reached the peak Arctic sea ice extent figure (>4.5 sigma event). During the 2003-16 period, the earliest peak was February 15 (2015). The latest was March 31 (2003 and 2010). The mean and median dates were March 10.

2016 was a remarkable year as far as Arctic sea ice extent was concerned. A summary of data is below:

And this is the second such case since November.

That's extraordinary warmth.

What has been going on in the Arctic is nothing short of historic, at least as far as sea ice extent record keeping is concerned. The October 1-December 9 mean figure for sea ice extent is 7,483,994 square kilometers. The previous record from 2012 was 7,760,443 square kilometers. Moreover, if one took the daily record low minimum figures for the same period of time prior to 2016, the mean figure would be 7,665,564 square kilometers. So far, 2016 has seen daily record low figures established on 180 days. It is now all but certain that 2016 will have established record low figures on at least half the days.

Barring a dramatic and significant increase, 2016 is moving closer to having seen daily record minimum extent figures on one out of every two days.

The issue is that in the absence of concrete data, it's difficult to draw firm conclusions with any degree of confidence.

Thanks. That's what I've read. So, as you noted, there doesn't appear to be anything unusual going on right now.

Do you have a source of data that indicates the current coronal holes are largely unprecedented?

Coronal holes have been observed since the 1950s (https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~scranmer/Preprints/eaaa_holes.pdf). If coronal holes were largely responsible for the current low ice conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, one should have seen similar issues across time. That there is a linear decline in Arctic sea ice underway suggests that something other than coronal holes is responsible, given that they've been occurring regularly.

Ice extent data from 2003-16 (except for Fall 2016 and Annual 2016):