donsutherland1

With the light rain that fell overnight, Newark's year-to-date precipitation has reached 49.89". That surpassed 1972, when 49.86" fell, to make 2019 Newark's 19th wettest year on record. This morning, Chicago was reporting its first snow of the season.

Yesterday's low temperature of -9° was Casper's lowest October temperature on record. The previous record was -4°, which was set on October 27 this year. The October 27 temperature was also Casper's earliest subzero reading on record. The previous earliest reading was -1° on October 29, 1971. In addition, today saw Casper record its fourth consecutive and fourth subzero low temperature of October. Previously, the October record was two days on October 29-30, 1971.

At 8 pm MDT, Casper, WY had a temperature of -8°. That surpassed the -4° temperature of October 27 as that city's coldest October temperature on record. Casper appears headed for its coldest October on record. The lowest October mean temperature was 37.0°, which was set in 2009. Today's 8° high temperature in Casper is, by far, the earliest maximum temperature below 10°. The prior record was 6° on November 11, 2014.

Thanks for the kind words. It’s still too soon to be sure, but a warmer outcome may be more likely than a cold one. Snowfall looks more promising, though. Still, critical details remain to be determined, so there’s considerable uncertainty. I am aware of thoughts about a cold winter, but the assumptions there are a weak El Niño. I am thinking that a neutral ENSO is more likely.

On JAXA, 2019 has already moved ahead of 2016: 7.063 million square kilometers vs. 6.841 million square kilometers in 2016.

I agree that greater precision would be helpful. I just wanted to note that the issue was considered.

What is "real science?" If one is ignoring scientific research, how can one even make claims about science? As for the latter part about past higher CO2 levels, none of that means that humans can't be responsible for unlocking greenhouse gases when, prior to the emergence of humans, natural processes were the only means possible.

With persistent drizzle and light rain, New York City has picked up 0.04" precipitation today. That brings the year-to-date total to 43.36". As a result, 2019 has moved past 1992, when 43.35" precipitation was recorded, to become the 83rd wettest year on record. Records go back to 1869.

Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through the end of the month. A strong cold front will likely move across the region late Thursday night or Friday, possibly with a strong squall line. Ahead of and following the frontal passage, conditions warranting a wind advisory will be likely. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. Meanwhile, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remains on track for its second warmest October on record (estimated mean temperature near 28.3° vs. the normal mean of 17.2°) and the warmest September-October period on record with an estimated mean temperature near 34.5° (existing record: 32.3°, 2016). On account of Arctic amplification, a warmer than normal November is very likely. Sensitivity analysis suggests a greater than 80% likelihood of a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -11.09 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.864. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.822 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.900. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.9°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%.

Forest management was considered. Excerpts: The above results strongly suggest that the observed increase in California summer burned area during1972–2018 (which mainly occurred in northern California forests) was mainly due to increased VPD and not concurrent changes in nonclimate factors such as forest management, fire suppression practices, or human ignitions. This is not to say that nonclimate factors were negligible in dictating modern annual burned areas. To the contrary, human ignitions greatly enhance the number of wildfires relative to that expected in their absence (Balch et al., 2017), and increased fuel density due tofire suppression (and warming/wetting trends in the high Sierra) may have enhanced the mean state of modern‐day forest‐fire extent, severity, and sensitivity to aridity (Dolanc et al., 2013; Harris & Taylor, 2015; Minnich et al., 1995;Swetnam & Baisan, 1996).

If it's verified. There's a quality control check that will need to be conducted.

The semantics arguments used to deny climate change in general and the link between climate change and the incidence of wildfire in particular are not supported by the scientific literature and they are unconvincing in evidence-based discussion. First, regarding the semantics arguments: 1. "Climate change" or "anthropogenic climate change" are terms that describe shifts in the climate that are underway. That description concerns heat, precipitation, the cryosphere, etc. 2. Those elements are actual things, not abstract matters. 3. No one has suggested that there isn't a link between weather and climate. 4. The predominant cause of climate change is the increased greenhouse gas forcing due to anthropogenic contributions that have led to an imbalance between greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas absorption. The end result is the documented increase in the atmospheric concentration of such gases, leading to increased forcing from such gases. 5. The physical properties of such gases are well-established (and in the case of carbon dioxide have been known since the 19th century). These properties have not changed. Only the mechanism by which they have been released from storage via burning of fossil fuels has changed. 6. The increasing atmospheric concentration of such gases have been driving changes that are captured in the description "climate change." 7. Those changes have been linked to, among other things, the increased risk of wildfires. Now, onto the link to climate change: One such study revealed: We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/113/42/11770.full.pdf An even more recent study: Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210 Do you have examples of papers published during the past 5-10 years that conclude that there is no link between climate change and the increased risk of wildfire?

The above reasoning is deeply flawed. For example, assume a hypothetical scenario where one has prolonged exposure to a heat index of 110° and winds up suffering from a heat-related health issue. Drawn from the above reasoning, one would assert that the high heat index wasn't responsible (after all, the heat index is merely an equation) and, by extension, some other issue led to the person's health issues (rather than the combination of heat and relative humidity, as measured by the heat index). That's the argument being made to deny that climate change has any link to the California wildfires. The empirical evidence in numerous published papers demonstrates the existence of such a link. Put simply, the measurements don't cause issues. But the underlying phenomena being measured or described--in this case, climate change--have very real consequences.

From the Arctic ice thread: To Maue's credit on this issue, he also tweeted, " I used to be skeptical of these jet-stream & climate links but the evidence has become overwhelming in just the past 2-years." While Maue has often taken skeptical positions on climate change-related matters, he has also displayed a willingness to be open to evidence, as noted above. Unfortunately, there are still individuals in the field (e.g., https://twitter.com/WeiZhangAtmos) who seek to poison understanding, e.g., his evidence-free claim that there is no climate change link to the fires (https://twitter.com/WeiZhangAtmos/status/1188795586906120194). Notice that he cited no papers. He provided no references to scientific research, even as he complained about a lack of "scientific analysis." That complaint was almost certainly an attempt to deflect attention from his lack of scientific evidence to dismiss the climate change link to the wildfires in order to lead others to believe that there is no scientific foundation for the climate change link for such fires. In fact, contrary to Zhang's claim, numerous papers have been published on the topic. Two recent papers: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0153589 Zhang's bluster was hollow and lacked scientific merit. The lack of scientific merit should not be surprising. If one goes through his Twitter stream, one finds retweets of conspiracy theories e.g., baseless claims that the UK's Met Office is deliberately hiding UK temperature anomaly maps prior to 2000, as well as trolling and name-calling (e.g., https://twitter.com/WeiZhangAtmos/status/1187782675924475904). Those who troll on the Internet and/or peddle conspiracy theories should not be taken seriously in any serious endeavor, particularly an evidence-centered field such as science.

Warmer than normal weather continued today in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Generally warmer than normal conditions will continue through the end of the month. However, out west, record low temperatures were set in parts of Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. Some of the records were the lowest temperatures recorded during October. Records included: Casper, WY: -2° (old record: 7°, 1991); Laramie, WY: -10° (old record: 0°, 1996); Ogden, UT: 18° (old record: 28°, 2011) ***New October Record***; and, Pocatello, ID: 7° (old record: 16°, 1991) ***Tied October record*** Casper's -4° reading yesterday was the lowest temperature on record there for October. Some of this cooler air will move into the region on Thursday night or Friday, possibly preceded by a strong squall line. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -8.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.384. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.897 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.844. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.8°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Olga brought a general 1.00"-1.50" rainfall to the region today. Several locations exceeded 2.00" rain. Daily precipitation records for October 27 were set at: Bridgeport: 2.12" (old record: 1.90", 2016) Islip: 1.58" (old record: 1.50", 2018) New Haven: 2.19" (old record: 1.39", 2003) White Plains: 2.20" (old record: 1.78", 2003) Year-to-date precipitation totals for select sites include: Allentown: 53.30" (11th wettest year); Harrisburg: 39.03"; Islip: 38.63"; New York City: 43.32"; Newark: 49.67" (20th wettest year); Philadelphia: 40.34"; and, Scranton: 43.70" (17th wettest year). In the wake of today's rainfall, the implied probability of New York City picking up 50" or more precipitation this year (1971-2018 data) has increased to 73%. The remainder of October will likely see readings mainly above normal. Cooler air will move into the region Friday or Saturday during the first week of November. The coolest period now appears likely to be the second week of November. Afterward, a prolonged return to above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could return. However, uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was +1.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.183. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 26, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.842 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.841. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.8°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Olga brought a general 1.00”-1.50” rain with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00” to the New York City area over a relatively short period of time. Four photos:

With 2.08" rain through 2 pm, White Plains set a new daily precipitation record for October 27. The previous record was 1.78", which was set in 2003.

Through 10:51 pm CDT, Chicago had picked up 2.10" rain. That brings the year-to-date precipitation total for 2019 to 46.92". As a result, 2019 has moved past 1993 when 46.90" precipitation was measured to become Chicago's 9th wettest year on record. Records go back to 1871.

With an additional 0.49" rain through 9:53 pm EDT, Detroit's daily precipitation for today reached 1.33". That exceeded the previous daily precipitation record for October 26. That record was 1.29", which was set in 1920.

Through 8:35 pm CDT, Chicago has picked up 1.62" rain from Tropical Storm Olga's remnants. That surpasses the previous record precipitation for October 26. The previous record was 1.60", which was set in 2016. In addition, with 44.44" precipitation, 2019 now ranks as Chicago's 11th wettest year on record.

With 0.84" of rain through 9 pm, today is the 3rd wettest October 26 on record in Detroit. The record daily precipitation is 1.29", which occurred in 1920 and the 2nd highest figure is 1.03", which fell in 1878.

A warmer than normal October is poised to end on a warmer than normal note. Before then, a moderate to significant rainstorm could affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain is possible. A few areas could pick up around 2.00" rain. The following are year-to-date rainfall totals for select sites: Allentown: 51.88" (14th wettest year on record); Baltimore: 30.86"; Boston: 39.25"; Harrisburg: 37.53"; Islip: 37.05"; New York City: 41.93"; Newark: 48.28" (24th wettest year on record); Philadelphia: 39.70"; Poughkeepsie: 31.45"; Providence: 39.36"; Scranton: 42.62" (22nd wettest year on record); and, Washington, DC: 34.70". Cooler air will move into the region to start November. Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -10.96 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.792. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely. On October 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.841 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.177. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is greater than 99%.

I don’t know all of the techniques involved. It is a specific breed of pumpkin and the seeds are exchanged among a small number of growers.

Even as high and mid-level clouds moved in to dim the afternoon sunshine, today was yet another balmy October day at the New York Botanical Garden. The high temperature reached 63°. The last photo shows the two largest giant pumpkins on display. The one in the foreground weighs 2,116 pounds. The one in the background weighs 2,016 pounds.