donsutherland1

As the observed warming of the global climate, including the continuing rapid warming in the Arctic region despite gradually declining solar insolation, proceeds, the degree of scientific ignorance being pushed on Social Media to deflect attention from athnropogenic climate change is expanding. One stunning example: https://twitter.com/EcoSenseNow/status/1190278220043579393 The hashtag, #CelebrateIgnorance would have been more appropriate. Let's take a look at the Eocene, which experienced the world's warmest temperatures since the extinction of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ∼18 °C to over 23 °C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04668 We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1600891.short Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ11B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30–40% and a δ11B decline of 1.0–1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2017.0072 How does the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gas emissions compare to that period? Research has found that "current carbon emission rates are nine to 10 times higher than those during the PETM." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190220112221.htm Further, climate sensitivity could increase with the warming on account of feedbacks such as those concerning cloud processes. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874/tab-pdf In the end, the growing extremes to which climate change deniers are now going to try to defend an indefensible case and evade their near total absence of scientific support demonstrates that the charlatans involved--in this case in tweeting, retweeting, or otherwise disseminating what amounts to quackery--should be ignored on any matters pertaining to science. Science is evidence-based. It is not an article of blind faith. Most definitely, it is not blind faith spiced by a combination of profound ignorance and a willingness to mislead. The body of scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is clear and overwhelming. Residual uncertainties exist, but the basic conclusion concerning the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is now near unequivocal.

For White Plains: 11/8 22°, 1960 11/9 20°, 1971

Harrisburg has picked up 1.87" rain between 8 pm and 9 pm from heavy thunderstorms. That hourly rainfall beat the old daily record for October 31 of 1.33", which was set in 1939. Through 9:15 pm, Harrisburg had picked up 2.54" rain.

Today Chicago picked up 3.4" snow. That was Chicago's second largest daily snowfall on record for October. The record is 3.8", from October 19, 1989. With 4.6" snow this month, October 2019 ranks as Chicago's second snowiest October on record. The record monthly snowfall total is 6.3", in October 1989.

A strong cold front was approaching the region. Its arrival could be marked by a strong squall line. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the second half of the month. The persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -2.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.442. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Based on the September-October data and the guidance for November, Fall 2019 is on track for a mean temperature near 59.0° in New York City. On October 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.965 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.955. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. The October 16-31 period had a mean temperature that was 3.3° above normal. October 2019 finished with a mean temperature of 59.9° (3.0° above normal), which was slightly higher than what had been implied by the MJO. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November.

Some photos from the Long Island Sound late this afternoon. The temperature was 69°, but there was a strong southeast wind.

The sun is breaking down through the clouds in Mamaroneck, NY.

The cold front that will move through our region has pushed through Atlanta. Over the past hour, the temperature there has fallen from 76 to 58.

For those tracking the heat in Florida, today’s 91 degree temperature in Jacksonville is that city’s latest 90 degree temperature on record. The prior record was October 27, 2010 when the temperature reached 90.

Yes. That’s why it is quite clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is playing the larger role today. And that forcing will continue to increase in coming years/decades.

UHI has made a contribution. The sun, though, should have a small net negative contribution in recent years given the slight decrease in solar irradiance. New York City is also affected by the increase in sea surface temperature anomalies, as well. But rising greenhouse gas forcing has also driven the observed warming trend (larger role more recently). Natural variability is occurring within the context of growing greenhouse gas forcing. No disagreement on the role politics has played in skewing perceptions.

With 0.13" precipitation through 11 am CDT, Chicago's total precipitation for 2019 has reached 45.94". That ranks 2019 as the 6th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1954 when 45.92" precipitation was measured.

Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), October has averaged 0.6 sigma above the 30-year moving average temperature and standard deviation in Miami. The 5 warmest Octobers on a standardized basis (30-year moving average) are: 1. 2019 +2.6 sigma 2. 2009 +2.2 sigma 3. 2002 +2.15 sigma 4. 1995 +2.0 sigma 5. 1969 +1.9 sigma No other Octobers were 1.8 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average. This data shows that since 2000, the extremely warm Octobers have become even more extreme even when the rising temperature trend is considered.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 -0.7 1.2 2.0 2.1 Snowfall (11/21): DCA: 10.0" NYC: 23.5" BOS: 36.0" ORD: 30.0" DTW: 35.0" BUF: 110.0" DEN: 83.0" BTV: 90.0" SEA: 6.5"

The record warm October will follow a record warm September. The September 2019 mean temperature was 85.2°. The prior September record was 84.8°, which was set in 2017. Miami will also easily register the warmest September-October period on record with a mean temperature near 84.3°. The existing record is 83.1°, which was set in 2009. 8 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2010 or later. Records in Miami go back to 1895. Such warmth is consistent with the expected outcomes from anthropogenic climate change.

Earlier today Chicago picked up 1.2" snow. That set a new October 30 daily record. The previous record was 0.7", which was set in 1923. The only other measurable snowfall on October 30 was 0.5" in 1906. Measurable snowfall of 0.5" or more in October has typically preceded winters with below normal snowfall in Chicago. Since 1884, there have been 11 years with 0.5" or more daily snowfall in October: 1906, 1913, 1917, 1923, 1925, 1929, 1952, 1957, 1967, 1972, and 1989. If one limits the cases to 1" or more daily snowfall, the numbers are as follows: - Less than 30": 5/8 (63%) cases - Less than 40": 6/8 (75%) cases - 50" or more: 2/8 (25%) cases Median snowfall was 28.9" The total November-December snowfall has often differentiated whether or not the winter would be snowy. In the 6 cases with less than 8" total November-December snowfall, all 6 had less than 30" seasonal snowfall. In the remaining 5 cases with 8" or more total November-December snowfall, all cases had 30" or more seasonal snowfall and 3/5 (60%) had 50" or more seasonal snowfall. Based on the historical data, today's snowfall may suggest a pattern evolution that would lead to below normal seasonal snowfall for Chicago. However, the probability of such an outcome would increase or decrease based on total November-December snowfall. Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through the end of the month. A strong cold front will likely move across the region late tomorrow night or Friday, possibly with a strong squall line. Ahead of and following the frontal passage, conditions warranting a wind advisory will be likely. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -12.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.174. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.952 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.823. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.9°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%.

In large part, this is likely why Utqiagvik will have the highest September-October mean temperature on record this year by at least 2 degrees.

As October concludes, Chicago recorded an October 30 daily record snowfall of 1.2". Monthly record low temperatures were reported in many parts of the Northern Rockies. Perhaps in response, increasingly sensational forecasts are now being pushed on Social Media. Often, such hype concerns snowstorms. IMO, one needs to point out such extremes when support is lacking, as such calls can skew perceptions about what is likely to occur and, afterward, lead the public's to blame forecasters (most of whom did not call for such extremes) when those extremes don't materialize. Below is an example of the kind of severe cold that is being forecast to lock in (notice the explicit language about the severe cold shown on the map locking in). I have also included the forecast teleconnections toward mid-November. Most of the ensemble members suggest the development of an AO+/NAO+/PNA- to neutral pattern toward mid-November. Let's take a look at two major cities where the tweet suggests cold temperatures of 8° or more below normal will lock in: Chicago and New York City. Such teleconnections would suggest that the cold shown at the end of the extended range would abate. Here's the data for November 16-30 (1981-2010): AO+/NAO+/PNA (-0.5 to +0.5*): Chicago: 40.0°; New York City: 48.6° 1981-2010 Base Normals: Chicago: 37.7°; New York City: 45.9° *-A PNA- would be even warmer. Put simply, historic experience with the forecast state of the teleconnections argues that the severe cold shown in the tweeted map would not lock in for the second half of the month. What does the very long-range guidance show? Here are the week 3 and 4 CFSv2 forecasts: The October 28 0z EPS weeklies also show warm anomalies developing after mid-month across almost the entire CONUS. In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things. All said, will Chicago and New York see November 16-30 with a mean temperature of 8° or more below normal? That scenario is very unlikely. Could it be cooler than normal? Possibly. Could it be warmer than normal? That's more likely than not given the forecast teleconnections and the long-range guidance. Clearly, all forecasts are subject to error and all forecasters make errors. My point is that one shouldn't assume extreme scenarios without strong support for such outcomes. IMO, support for severe cold to lock in is limited (teleconnections + long-range guidance).

With the light rain that fell overnight, Newark's year-to-date precipitation has reached 49.89". That surpassed 1972, when 49.86" fell, to make 2019 Newark's 19th wettest year on record. This morning, Chicago was reporting its first snow of the season.

Yesterday's low temperature of -9° was Casper's lowest October temperature on record. The previous record was -4°, which was set on October 27 this year. The October 27 temperature was also Casper's earliest subzero reading on record. The previous earliest reading was -1° on October 29, 1971. In addition, today saw Casper record its fourth consecutive and fourth subzero low temperature of October. Previously, the October record was two days on October 29-30, 1971.

At 8 pm MDT, Casper, WY had a temperature of -8°. That surpassed the -4° temperature of October 27 as that city's coldest October temperature on record. Casper appears headed for its coldest October on record. The lowest October mean temperature was 37.0°, which was set in 2009. Today's 8° high temperature in Casper is, by far, the earliest maximum temperature below 10°. The prior record was 6° on November 11, 2014.

Thanks for the kind words. It’s still too soon to be sure, but a warmer outcome may be more likely than a cold one. Snowfall looks more promising, though. Still, critical details remain to be determined, so there’s considerable uncertainty. I am aware of thoughts about a cold winter, but the assumptions there are a weak El Niño. I am thinking that a neutral ENSO is more likely.

On JAXA, 2019 has already moved ahead of 2016: 7.063 million square kilometers vs. 6.841 million square kilometers in 2016.

I agree that greater precision would be helpful. I just wanted to note that the issue was considered.

What is "real science?" If one is ignoring scientific research, how can one even make claims about science? As for the latter part about past higher CO2 levels, none of that means that humans can't be responsible for unlocking greenhouse gases when, prior to the emergence of humans, natural processes were the only means possible.