donsutherland1

Today saw readings rise into the 60s and even 70s across much of the region. Charleston, WV topped out at 80°. Daily record high temperatures included: Albany: 67° (old record: 57°, 1975) Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975) Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018) Bangor: 55° (old record: 52°, 1983) Boston: 70° (old record: 62°, 1975) Bridgeport: 59° (old record: 56°, 1975) Burlington: 59° (old record: 56°, 1980) Charleston, WV: 80° (old record: 71°, 2018) Cleveland: 70° (old record: 67°, 1890) Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980) Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Erie, PA: 71° (old record: 66°, 1890) Georgetown, DE: 73° (old record: 67°, 2008 and 2014) Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983) Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975) New York City-NYC: 69° (old record: 63°, 1975) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975) Norfolk: 76° (old record: 75°, 1890 and 1974) Parkersburg, WV (old record: 67°, 2018) ***Tied January record of 78° set on January 25, 1950*** Pittsburgh: 70° (old record: 68°, 1890) Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Portland: 63° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017) Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975) Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1974 and tied in 1975) Salisbury: 72° (old record: 69°, 2014) White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975) Wilmington, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1975) Worcester: 63° (old record: 58°, 1924) This exceptional warmth is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°. Daily precipitation records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 7 pm included: Detroit: 1.95" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905) ***New January daily record: Old monthly record: 1.76", January 12, 1908*** Indianapolis: 1.38" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005) South Bend, IN: 2.34" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895) ***2nd highest January daily amount*** Toledo: 1.21" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013) Tomorrow will likely see additional near record to record warmth for a second day. A squall line with high winds, briefly heavy rain, and perhaps thunder could move through parts of the region early in the day. Afterward, winds will likely gust to 40 mph and 50 mph throughout the day. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Hartford: 60°, 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Following this weekend, generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. Nevertheless, readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal for the remainder of the period through mid-month. Afterward, a pattern change to colder weather with opportunities for snowfall is likely. Near January 20 +/- a few days, colder air will likely return for a period. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.356. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 19. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.253 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 3.033. Today's preliminary amplitude is the highest on record for all cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 during January. The prior record amplitude was 3.131, which was set on January 11, 1986. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 78% probability of a warmer than normal January.

That 1890 had some record temperatures that were toppled today does not in any way negate the observed ongoing warming associated with anthropogenic climate change. Since 1895, the Northeast has been warming about 0.1°F per decade. That figure is skewed low on account of the aerosol-induced cooling that took place during the 1970s. The rate of warming has accelerated afterward and has averaged 0.8°F per decade since 1980. Globally 2019 was the second warmest year on record (Copernicus) and almost certainly will rank as the second warmest when the GISS data comes out next week. The 2010-19 decade was easily the warmest on record globally. The synoptic pattern for today was quite similar to those present on January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975. Both cases featured highly anomalous ridges in the East. January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975: Within the context of a warming climate, similar warm patterns can produce warmer outcomes than had been the case in the past. There is a climate change thread for more specific discussion of climate change and climate change-related issues.

The preliminary amplitude for 1/10 is just in. It was 3.253. That would set a new January record for cases when the MJO was in Phase 4.

The bloom was surprising.

Yes. I agree.

The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.

69 was today's high.

Under partly sunny skies that lasted until near mid-afternoon before overcast conditions developed, the temperature soared to a record 68° in New York City. Throughout the region, record high temperatures, many set in 1975 when a similar 500 mb pattern prevailed and a storm brought heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region, were toppled. Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden early this afternoon:

As of 3 pm, daily record high temperatures include: Albany: 66° (old record: 57°, 1975) Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975) Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018) Boston: 69° (old record: 62°, 1975) Bridgeport: 57° (old record: 56°, 1975) Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980) Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Erie, PA: 68° (old record: 66°, 1890) Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983) Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975) New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975) Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Portland: 60° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017) Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975) White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975) In addition, daily rainfall records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 3 pm include: Detroit: 1.86" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905; old January daily record: 1.76", January 12, 1908) Indianapolis: 1.32" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005) South Bend, IN: 2.31" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895) Toledo: 1.08" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013)

Clouds are coming in quite fast.

As of 10 am, daily record high temperatures include: Dayton, OH: 63° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Lexington, KY: 70° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) White Plains: 58° (old record: 57°, 1975)

On this date in 1975, a major storm was bringing heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. In the East, record high temperatures were being set in the Middle Atlantic region. Today, another storm is bringing heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region. Yesterday, Indianapolis picked up 1.87" rain, which smashed its previous daily record of 1.29" from 1924). That also tied January 22, 1999 for the 9th highest daily rainfall on record in January. Records go back to 1871. So far this morning (through 8 am), South Bend, IN has received 2.02" rain. That easily surpassed the previous daily record of 0.70", which fell in 1895. It also edged past the 2.00" recorded on January 30, 1909 to become that city's 3rd highest daily precipitation amount on record for January. Records go back to 1893. At 8 am, temperatures in the region included: Atlantic City: 54°; Islip: 51°; New York City: 59°; and Newark: 57°. Parts of the region were also receiving some sunshine. At least parts of the region will likely see record high maximum temperatures later today.

At 8:05 pm CST, the first area of moderate to heavy rain was pushing toward Joliet. Over the next 1-2 hours, moderate to heavy rain will move into the Chicago area. By the time the storm ends, Chicago will likely have picked up a 2-day precipitation total of 1.50"-3.00". There have been only 6 cases in January where 2-day precipitation came to 2.00" or more. Records go back to 1871. Detroit will likely see its heaviest one and two-day total on record. The January daily record is 1.76", which fell on January 12, 1908. The January two-day record is 1.90", which was record on January 3-4, 1993.

It is. That Detroit has such a long climate record makes it extremely impressive.

Yes. I agree with you.

Some excerpts from a timely interview with Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann: JAISAL NOOR: So you actually traveled to Australia to study the links between climate change and extreme weather events. You didn’t go to cover what’s happening now, but describe what you have discovered since you’ve been there. MICHAEL MANN: Yeah. It’s a bit surreal, because this trip, this sabbatical, was more than a year in the making. And indeed my goal was to come here to Australia to collaborate with some Australian scientists and understanding the scientific linkages between climate change and extreme weather events in Australia. And of course, ironically I arrived at the time that Australia was experiencing perhaps the most extreme weather on record in the form of unprecedented heat across the continent. And of course these unprecedented bush fires that are literally spreading across the continent. I’ve witnessed these impacts firsthand here in Sydney where I’m staying. Yesterday, I couldn’t go outside and take my usual daily run because the air quality was dangerous from all the smoke that was blowing in from these wildfires. And so here in Sydney, climate change isn’t just some theoretical construct. It’s something that is playing out in real time. I can look out my window and see it... JAISAL NOOR: Now have we reached a tipping point when it comes to climate change and these catastrophes that are unfolding not only in Australia but you see around the world. You see this growing devastation that natural disasters are causing. And is it possible to reverse this at this point? What would that look like? MICHAEL MANN: Yeah, so there is the danger of tipping points. You know when things get dry enough and hot enough, you can see a very dramatic escalation of these wildfires and bush fires here in Australia. And arguably that’s what we’re seeing in California and the Western US. That’s what we’re seeing here in Australia and in any many other regions around the world where summers are getting hot enough and dry enough that you just see this almost exponential escalation in these wildfires. So we may indeed be starting to cross a tipping point where, in the very best case, we are dealing with the new norm. That is to say, if we stop warming the planet and we sort of stabilize temperatures, we don’t worsen the problem. https://therealnews.com/stories/australia-fire-denying-climate-change-wont-save-you

Earlier today, Lexington and Louisville both set daily record high temperatures of 67° today. That warmth is coming northward and a very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will likely peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England. At the same time, a storm will be bringing exceptionally heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. Heavy snow is possible in Milwaukee. Very heavy rain will likely impact Chicago and Detroit. In fact, there is a chance that tomorrow's daily rainfall in Detroit could be the heaviest on record for January. The January record precipitation for Detroit is 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908. This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°. Tomorrow could see some locations approach or reach record high temperatures. Daily records for January 11 are: Atlantic City: 62°, 2018 Bridgeport: 56°, 1975 Hartford: 60°, 1983 Islip: 60°, 1975 New York City: 63°, 1975 Newark: 66°, 1975 Poughkeepsie: 63°, 1975 White Plains: 57°, 1975 Sunday will likely see widespread near record to record warmth. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Hartford: 60°, 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Sunday will mark the climax of January's warmth. Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. There are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term. Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +13.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.516. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 18. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 9, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.026 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.617. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January.

There has definitely been arson. However, the disinformation being circulated is a claim that 90% or more of the fires are the result of arson (not lightning, not accident, etc.).

At 1:55 PM EST, daily precipitation at Indianapolis had reached 1.30". That broke the daily record for January 10 of 1.29", which had been set in 1924.

Yes, I did read about how the bots are spreading disinformation. Social Media platforms may be the battleground where the dying climate denial movement is making its last stand. Science has already triumphed in the research publications field (though pseudo-journals may be launched to try to create confusion) and it has made major gains among numerous media outlets (except mainly for ideology- or interest-driven ones). Nevertheless, ignorance-driven movements typically prove unsustainable in the long-term when knowledge becomes widely-diffused. Unfortunately, when it comes to addressing the challenges of anthropogenic climate change, early significant progress is needed, due to the long atmospheric residence of some greenhouse gases and the increase in forcing associated with their increasing atmospheric concentration. There is real urgency for society--on a global basis--to begin to make serious efforts to address the challenge. But, for now, with some exceptions, there remains a leadership deficit and the impact of that deficit is compounded by the noise of the shrinking but still loud climate change denial movement (and the interests, some with vast financial resources, that have a vested stake in its goals).

The 1967 storm was really special.

Chicago appears to be in line for a relatively uncommon January precipitation event where 1.50" or more rain falls over a two-day period. The 500 mb pattern is a classic one for high precipitation events in January when the Arctic Oscillation is positive: Since 1871, Chicago has had just 16 storms bring 1.50" or more precipitation over a two-day period in January. It has had only 5 storms bring 2.00" or more precipitation over a two-day period in January.

This morning, temperatures were broadly warmer than they were yesterday at the same time. Moreover, in a number of locations, temperatures had been rising since midnight. Select 6 am temperatures and the 24-hour change are below: Allentown: 26° +6° Atlantic City: 36° +13° Baltimore: 35° +11° Bridgeport: 37° +14° Harrisburg: 29° +6° Islip: 41° +18° New York City: 37° +13° Newark: 31° +7° Philadelphia: 33° +9° Poughkeepsie: 30° +9° Washington, DC: 39° +9° White Plains: 34° +13° As warmer air continues to stream into the region, the temperature will likely reach 50° or above in much of the region before the end of the day.

As per the EU’s Copernicus, 2019 was the second warmest year on record: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2019

Back on December 26, composite date for MJO passage at high amplitude in Phase 4 and historic data associated with strong AO+ patterns in combination with a positive EPO implied that the GEFS was missing what would become a strong ridge in the East during the January 10-17 period. We now know the unfortunate ending to that chapter of Winter 2019-2020. We will feel the full consequences this weekend as the mercury approaches or sets record high temperatures in the region. But is this the end of the story of Winter 2019-2020? The GEFS keeps things on pause for the most part. But, just as had been the case back in December, the GEFS could be mishandling the pattern in the extended range. Certainly, if the bias-corrected GEFS forecast for the MJO is accurate, the forecast 500 mb pattern would be suspect. The bias-corrected GEFS is suggesting that the MJO will move into Phase 7 at a super high amplitude (2.000 or above). Such an outcome typically produces a trough in the East and often a ridge in the EPO-PNA domains. Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases). Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS have recently adjusted to show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at high amplitude. The EPS has made some movement in that direction, as well. Additonal evidence also suggests that something closer to the more typical 500 mb pattern for the MJO in Phase 7 at a super high amplitude than the GEFS idea is the more likely scenario: 1. The 12z EPS moved toward such a pattern following hour 270. 2. The 12z CFSv2's Week 3 forecast had a similar 500 mb pattern to that shown on the EPS, except that the ridge-trough axes were displaced somewhat to the west. 3. Historic outcomes 3-4 weeks following the MJO's reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during January 5-20 were generally 10°-12° colder than the Week 1-2 anomaly. Based on the latest guidance (estimated 40.0° mean temperature for the January 8-21 period in New York City), that would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature around 28.0°-30.0° at Central Park. That would be several degrees below normal. The recent weekly CFSv2 data was even colder than that. Key Points: 1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East. 2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February. 3. Historic data from the past cases where the MJO entered Phase 7 at super high amplitude referenced above often saw above to much above normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during February.