donsutherland1

Temperatures topped out in the 40s across much of the region. Nevertheless, readings remained above normal for the time of year. Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through Friday. Readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal over the next several days. However, a more winter-like pattern lies ahead in the medium-term. During next weekend, colder air will likely return for a period. At the same time, there is potential for a system to bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. At present, this appears to be the kind of storm that could bring 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City, more to the north and west, including New England, and less to the south and east. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -2.68 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.698. That was the highest AO figure since December 21, 2016 when the AO was +4.742. That is also the highest January AO figure since January 5, 2005 when the AO was +4.703. Sixteen days later, a blizzard moved into the region dumping more than a foot of snow from Philadelphia to New England. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 21. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Toward January 20, a moderate amplitude Wave 2 could impact the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 12, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.530 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 3.433. The January 12 amplitude was the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's being in Phase 5 during January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 78% probability of a warmer than normal January.

Late afternoon thoughts... 1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5). 2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. 3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track. 15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: 4. The 12z EPS, 12z GEFS, and 12z CFSv2 weekly guidance all favor the trough in the means in the East idea for the closing 10 days of January.

Three quick thoughts this afternoon: 1. The base case has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and 8. With the MJO now in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.430, things remain well on track for such an outcome. Historically, cases where the MJO reaches a peak amplitude of 3.000 or above during meteorological winter do not fall below an amplitude of 1.000 for two weeks or longer from their date of peak amplitude in a large majority of cases (>80%). This would imply that the MJO will likely remain at an amplitude of 1.000 or above for much or all of the rest of January. At this point, guidance suggesting a fairly rapid collapse in the MJO's amplitude should be discounted. 2. When the MJO reaches Phase 7 at a very high amplitude (2.000 or above), measurable snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions is similar to climatology. That would imply 2 measurable snow events for such cities as Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston. 3. The first such candidate for a measurable snow event is a storm that will impact the region this coming weekend. Although it's too early to pin down possible accumulations, this seems to be the kind of storm that has brought 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City (more north and west of this area and in New England, less south and east of that area) in the past.

Dan, I plug in scenarios that include record values, which leads to a higher variance/lower z-value. The percentage is conservative, but this approach takes out some of the noise when model runs vary widely and when there's a lot of time left in a given month. However, I am looking at an alternative with somewhat relaxed assumptions that might be more realistic in terms of quantifying things. For example, using the current and forecast temperatures through January 15, January 16-31 would need to average just under 23.0° to have a normal outcome. Since 1869, 9% of NYC's cases met that standard. The alternative approach shows about a 14% probability (the one I'm using above shows a 23% probability with the 0z guidance). Also, with the ongoing warming, even the historic probabilities may be high relative to what's realistic today.

It was. I am looking forward to the coming pattern change.

Boston, Bridgeport, New Haven, and Providence all set January record high temperatures.

Record to historic January warmth prevailed in parts of the region today. Daily records included: Albany: 67° (old record: 63°, 2018) Allentown: 68° (old record: 65°, 2018) Baltimore: 70° (tied record set in 1890 and tied in 2017) Binghamton: 61° (old record: 60°, 2018) Boston: 74° (old record: 61°, 1913, 1975 and 2017) ***January Record (old record: 72°, January 26, 1950)*** Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 55°, 2017 and 2018) ***January Record (old record: 68°, January 29, 2002 and January 6, 2007)*** Concord: 67° (old record: 61°, 1885) Georgetown, DE: 70° (tied daily record set in 1975) Harrisburg: 69° (old record: 65°, 2017) Hartford: 70° (old record: 60°, 2018) Islip: 68° (old record: 58°, 1995 and 2017) Jacksonville: 84° (old record: 82°, 1949) Manchester, NH: 60° (tied daily record set in 2018) New Haven: 69° (old record: 54°, 2018) ***January Record (old record: 66°, January 29, 2002 and January 6, 2007)*** New York City-JFK: 68° (old record: 61°, 2017) New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 66°, 2017) Orlando: 86° (old record: 85°, 1925 and 1972) Portland: 52° (old record: 51°, 1980 and 2014) Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 62°, 2018) Providence: 70° (old record: 62°, 2018) ***January Record (old record: 69°, January 14, 1995 and January 29, 2002)*** Salisbury: 70° (old record: 67°, 2017 and 2018) Savannah: 82° (old record: 81°, 2013) Scranton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2018) Syracuse: 65° (old record: 62°, 2018) White Plains: 66° (old record: 63°, 2017) Wilmington, DE: 70° (old record: 68°, 2017) Worcester: 66° (old record: 59°, 2018) In northern Maine, heavy snow blanketed the region. Through 5 pm, Caribou had picked up 12.0" snow, which surpassed that city's daily record of 7.6" from 1995 (when Islip's previous daily record high temperature for today had been set). Following this weekend, generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. Nevertheless, readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal for the remainder of the period through mid-month. Afterward, a pattern change to colder weather with opportunities for snowfall is likely. Near January 20 +/- a few days, colder air will likely return for a period. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.261. That is the highest AO figure since December 22, 2016 when the AO was +4.511. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 19. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.430 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 3.253. The previous highest amplitude in January when the MJO was in Phase 5 was 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January.

Bridgeport also had a January record 69 degrees. In fact, prior to today, the earliest Bridgeport had reached 69 degrees was March 8, 1987.

No. I used a camera. Phones have improved greatly, though.

The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

At 12:54 pm, Boston reported a temperature of 72 degrees. That tied the January record set on January 26, 1950.

Boston has now hit 70 degrees for the second consecutive day. This is only the second time on record that Boston has seen such warmth during meteorological winter. The previous time was February 20-21, 2018.

At 8:51 am, the temperature reached 67° in Central Park. That broke the daily record of 66°, which was set in 2017.

To put the overnight warmth into perspective, here are Boston's hourly record high temperatures (1945-present): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=MA_ASOS&zstation=BOS&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png&_cb=1

Through 7 am, new daily record high temperatures were set in cities including Albany, Allentown, Boston, Bridgeport, Harrisburg, Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Providence, and Worcester. The sun will return over the next hour or two in the New York Metro area. However, the warmest readings of January are now ending. The January 20-31 period looks to be colder than normal overall with a mean temperature around 28° +/- 2° for the period as a whole for New York City.

Near 1 am, Boston’s 65 degree temperature set a daily record. The previous record was 61 degrees, which was set in 1913 and tied in 1975 and 2017.

Allentown recently reached 68 degrees for a new daily high temperature. The old daily record was 66 degrees, which was set in 1975.

At 8:25 pm, Detroit's daily rainfall reached 2.00". That further extends today's January daily precipitation record.

As of 8 pm, Detroit had received 1.98" precipitation today. That surpasses both the one- and two-day precipitation records for January. The one-day record was 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908. The two-day record was 1.90", which was set on January 3-4, 1993.

Today saw readings rise into the 60s and even 70s across much of the region. Charleston, WV topped out at 80°. Daily record high temperatures included: Albany: 67° (old record: 57°, 1975) Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975) Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018) Bangor: 55° (old record: 52°, 1983) Boston: 70° (old record: 62°, 1975) Bridgeport: 59° (old record: 56°, 1975) Burlington: 59° (old record: 56°, 1980) Charleston, WV: 80° (old record: 71°, 2018) Cleveland: 70° (old record: 67°, 1890) Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980) Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Erie, PA: 71° (old record: 66°, 1890) Georgetown, DE: 73° (old record: 67°, 2008 and 2014) Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983) Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975) New York City-NYC: 69° (old record: 63°, 1975) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975) Norfolk: 76° (old record: 75°, 1890 and 1974) Parkersburg, WV (old record: 67°, 2018) ***Tied January record of 78° set on January 25, 1950*** Pittsburgh: 70° (old record: 68°, 1890) Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Portland: 63° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017) Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975) Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1974 and tied in 1975) Salisbury: 72° (old record: 69°, 2014) White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975) Wilmington, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1975) Worcester: 63° (old record: 58°, 1924) This exceptional warmth is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°. Daily precipitation records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 7 pm included: Detroit: 1.95" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905) ***New January daily record: Old monthly record: 1.76", January 12, 1908*** Indianapolis: 1.38" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005) South Bend, IN: 2.34" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895) ***2nd highest January daily amount*** Toledo: 1.21" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013) Tomorrow will likely see additional near record to record warmth for a second day. A squall line with high winds, briefly heavy rain, and perhaps thunder could move through parts of the region early in the day. Afterward, winds will likely gust to 40 mph and 50 mph throughout the day. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Hartford: 60°, 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Following this weekend, generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. Nevertheless, readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal for the remainder of the period through mid-month. Afterward, a pattern change to colder weather with opportunities for snowfall is likely. Near January 20 +/- a few days, colder air will likely return for a period. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.356. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 19. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.253 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 3.033. Today's preliminary amplitude is the highest on record for all cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 during January. The prior record amplitude was 3.131, which was set on January 11, 1986. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 78% probability of a warmer than normal January.

That 1890 had some record temperatures that were toppled today does not in any way negate the observed ongoing warming associated with anthropogenic climate change. Since 1895, the Northeast has been warming about 0.1°F per decade. That figure is skewed low on account of the aerosol-induced cooling that took place during the 1970s. The rate of warming has accelerated afterward and has averaged 0.8°F per decade since 1980. Globally 2019 was the second warmest year on record (Copernicus) and almost certainly will rank as the second warmest when the GISS data comes out next week. The 2010-19 decade was easily the warmest on record globally. The synoptic pattern for today was quite similar to those present on January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975. Both cases featured highly anomalous ridges in the East. January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975: Within the context of a warming climate, similar warm patterns can produce warmer outcomes than had been the case in the past. There is a climate change thread for more specific discussion of climate change and climate change-related issues.

The preliminary amplitude for 1/10 is just in. It was 3.253. That would set a new January record for cases when the MJO was in Phase 4.

The bloom was surprising.

Yes. I agree.

The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.