donsutherland1

Today was another springlike day at the New York Botanical Garden. Under bright sunshine, the temperature reached 50°. Some tourists were overheard stating that they did not know New York City was so mild during the winter. Four photos:

Morning thoughts... 1. The preliminary value of the AO was +6.187. That was the second highest figure on record, just behind the preliminary value of +6.342 on February 10. 2. The prospect that New York City will see less than 10" seasonal snowfall for only the 10th time on record is increasing. No moderate or significant snowfalls appear likely through the remainder of February. 3. Past extremely strong polar vortex events at this time of year have been followed by a warmer than normal March in the region. 4. The CFSv2, which had previously shown very cold conditions for March, is now in the early stages of a possible correction. The latest run has dramatically reduced the expanse and magnitude of the cold from that shown on the recent runs. 5. Europe is likely to experience more above and much above normal temperatures in March.

From NASA: On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers. The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020. The heat is apparent on the map below, which shows temperatures across the Antarctic Peninsula on February 9, 2020. The map was derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, and represents air temperatures at 2 meters (about 6.5 feet) above the ground. The darkest red areas are where the model shows temperatures surpassing 10°C (50°F). Mauri Pelto, a glaciologist at Nichols College observed that during the warming event, around 1.5 square kilometers (0.9 square miles) of snowpack became saturated with meltwater (shown in blue above)... This February heatwave was the third major melt event of the 2019-2020 summer, following warm spells in November 2019 and January 2020. “If you think about this one event in February, it isn’t that significant,” said Pelto. “It’s more significant that these events are coming more frequently.“ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146322/antarctica-melts-under-its-hottest-days-on-record

Milder air will return starting tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +10.71 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.837. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.399 from 2008. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 29, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.077 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.640. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Morning thoughts... The preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +5.837. That is the third highest value on record. Tomorrow could see the AO approach or exceed the record preliminary value of +6.342, which was set on February 10. Today was also the 4th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. The polar vortex remains extraordinarily large and strong. Stratospheric temperatures from 30 mb down to 100 mb are at daily record low figures. Overall, the polar vortex will likely retain its structure and abnormal strength through at least the next 10 days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. Below are composite February and March 500 mb patterns for 1989 and 1990 and the February 1-18, 2020 500 mb pattern. Based on the above charts, the cold monthly outlook for March currently shown on the CFSv2 could be suspect.

The disproportionate share of winters after 2000 and 2010 stands out.

Some PNS reports from the snowstorm: 000 NOUS42 KMHX 211006 PNSMHX NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-212206- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 506 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...North Carolina... ...Beaufort County... Bath 2.8 in 0933 PM 02/20 Public 1 SSW Chocowinity 2.0 in 1110 PM 02/20 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Pinetown 2.0 in 1023 PM 02/20 Public ...Craven County... Vanceboro 3.7 in 1130 PM 02/20 Public 1 ENE Fort Barnwell 2.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 Public ...Duplin County... 3 SW Bowdens 1.5 in 0845 PM 02/20 Amateur Radio ...Greene County... Snow Hill 4.0 in 0414 AM 02/21 Public ...Lenoir County... 1 ESE Kinston 3.5 in 1120 PM 02/20 Public 1 ESE Kinston 3.0 in 0939 PM 02/20 Public ...Pitt County... 2 N Farmville 3.8 in 0123 AM 02/21 Public Grifton 3.5 in 0310 AM 02/21 Public && 000 NOUS42 KRAH 210829 PNSRAH NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-212029- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 329 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon ...North Carolina... ...Alamance County... 1 S Mebane 2.8 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.28W 1 W Burlington 2.3 in 1000 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.47W Burlington 2.0 in 1015 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.45W ...Chatham County... 6 W Bynum 1.8 in 0732 PM 02/20 35.78N/79.25W 1 NE Siler City 1.5 in 0607 PM 02/20 35.73N/79.45W 1 ENE Goldston 1.4 in 0657 PM 02/20 35.60N/79.31W ...Cumberland County... 5 NNE Fayetteville 0.8 in 1021 PM 02/20 35.15N/78.87W Hope Mills 0.5 in 0822 PM 02/20 34.97N/78.95W 5 NNE Fayetteville 0.5 in 0911 PM 02/20 35.15N/78.87W Fayetteville 0.5 in 0921 PM 02/20 35.07N/78.90W ...Davidson County... 3 WNW Lexington 1.0 in 0608 PM 02/20 35.82N/80.31W Thomasville 1.0 in 0611 PM 02/20 35.89N/80.08W ...Durham County... 7 SE Gorman 2.7 in 1017 PM 02/20 35.97N/78.72W 1 SSE Parkwood 2.1 in 1147 PM 02/20 35.88N/78.90W Durham 2.0 in 0902 PM 02/20 35.98N/78.92W 1 SSE Parkwood 2.0 in 1008 PM 02/20 35.88N/78.90W ...Forsyth County... 3 W Pfafftown 1.0 in 0600 PM 02/20 36.15N/80.36W ...Franklin County... 3 NE Youngsville 4.0 in 0912 PM 02/20 36.06N/78.44W 4 ENE Franklinton 3.8 in 1030 PM 02/20 36.13N/78.39W Youngsville 3.0 in 1250 AM 02/21 36.03N/78.48W ...Guilford County... 3 SSW Gibsonville 2.0 in 0630 PM 02/20 36.07N/79.57W 5 E Colfax 2.0 in 0800 PM 02/20 36.12N/79.93W 2 SSE Summerfield 2.0 in 0815 PM 02/20 36.18N/79.88W Greensboro 1.5 in 0929 PM 02/20 36.08N/79.83W High Point 1.3 in 0630 PM 02/20 35.98N/80.00W ...Halifax County... Roanoke Rapids 2.5 in 0918 PM 02/20 36.45N/77.65W ...Harnett County... Coats 1.5 in 0745 PM 02/20 35.41N/78.67W 3 E Pineview 1.5 in 0815 PM 02/20 35.31N/79.03W 2 SSW Benson 1.5 in 1105 PM 02/20 35.35N/78.56W ...Johnston County... Benson 2.5 in 1005 PM 02/20 35.38N/78.55W 1 E Linwood 2.2 in 0801 PM 02/20 35.75N/78.30W 3 NNW Flowers 2.0 in 0700 PM 02/20 35.70N/78.37W 2 E Pine Level 2.0 in 1042 PM 02/20 35.51N/78.21W Clayton 1.9 in 0722 PM 02/20 35.65N/78.46W 6 N Coats Crossroads 1.9 in 0926 PM 02/20 35.61N/78.56W 5 WNW Coats Crossroads 1.5 in 0645 PM 02/20 35.54N/78.63W Emit 1.5 in 0731 PM 02/20 35.73N/78.27W 2 E Pine Level 1.2 in 0902 PM 02/20 35.51N/78.21W 6 NNW Coats Crossroads 1.2 in 1200 AM 02/21 35.59N/78.60W ...Lee County... Broadway 1.5 in 0709 PM 02/20 35.46N/79.05W ...Montgomery County... Troy 2.8 in 0916 PM 02/20 35.36N/79.89W Star 2.0 in 0839 PM 02/20 35.40N/79.78W Candor 1.8 in 0932 PM 02/20 35.29N/79.74W ...Moore County... 4 SW Carthage 2.3 in 0956 PM 02/20 35.31N/79.47W ...Orange County... 2 N Efland 2.5 in 0730 PM 02/20 36.09N/79.17W 4 NNW Efland 2.1 in 0630 PM 02/20 36.12N/79.20W 2 S Carr 2.0 in 0604 PM 02/20 36.19N/79.22W ...Person County... Roxboro 3.3 in 0757 PM 02/20 36.40N/78.98W ...Randolph County... 4 SE Asheboro 1.8 in 0745 PM 02/20 35.68N/79.76W 3 ENE Seagrove 1.5 in 0742 PM 02/20 35.56N/79.73W Asheboro 1.0 in 0517 PM 02/20 35.72N/79.81W ...Sampson County... 2 W Spivey`s Corner 1.8 in 1100 PM 02/20 35.25N/78.56W ...Vance County... Henderson 2.8 in 0925 PM 02/20 36.32N/78.41W ...Wake County... 4 NE Wendell 3.1 in 1001 PM 02/20 35.83N/78.31W 4 NE Rdu International 3.0 in 0947 PM 02/20 35.91N/78.73W 5 SSW Garner 2.8 in 0951 PM 02/20 35.62N/78.67W Purnell 2.7 in 0920 PM 02/20 36.03N/78.57W 2 N Raleigh 2.5 in 0831 PM 02/20 35.85N/78.66W 3 S Falls Lake 2.5 in 1020 PM 02/20 35.89N/78.58W 4 NNE Raleigh 2.3 in 0856 PM 02/20 35.87N/78.64W 6 W Falls Lake 2.3 in 0924 PM 02/20 35.94N/78.68W 1 S Cary 2.2 in 0800 PM 02/20 35.77N/78.80W Wake Forest 2.0 in 0825 PM 02/20 35.97N/78.52W 5 W Purnell 2.0 in 0914 PM 02/20 36.03N/78.65W 2 NNW Fuquay-Varina 2.0 in 1040 PM 02/20 35.62N/78.81W 4 SSW Raleigh 1.8 in 1200 AM 02/21 35.77N/78.68W 2 WSW Holly Springs 1.7 in 1000 PM 02/20 35.64N/78.86W 2 NE New Hill 1.5 in 1100 PM 02/20 35.70N/78.88W ...Warren County... 1 N Arcola 1.8 in 0613 PM 02/20 36.29N/77.98W ...Wayne County... 1 SW Goldsboro 2.0 in 1110 PM 02/20 35.36N/77.99W 3 N Mar-Mac 1.1 in 0845 PM 02/20 35.37N/78.06W ...Wilson County... Lucama 2.3 in 0955 PM 02/20 35.64N/78.01W 2 ESE New Hope 2.0 in 0858 PM 02/20 35.79N/77.92W && 000 NOUS41 KAKQ 210832 PNSAKQ MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525-212032- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Maryland... ...Somerset County... Crisfield 0.3 in 0938 PM 02/20 37.98N/75.85W Eden 0.3 in 0936 PM 02/20 38.28N/75.65W ...Worcester County... Ocean City 0.1 in 0939 PM 02/20 38.36N/75.07W ...North Carolina... ...Gates County... Corapeake 2.0 in 1130 PM 02/20 36.53N/76.58W ...Hertford County... Ahoskie 3.0 in 0843 PM 02/20 36.29N/76.99W ...Virginia... ...Accomack County... Bloxom 2.5 in 1008 PM 02/20 37.83N/75.62W Quinby 2.0 in 0942 PM 02/20 37.56N/75.73W 2 NE Atlantic 1.0 in 0714 PM 02/20 37.92N/75.48W Chincoteague 0.5 in 0938 PM 02/20 37.95N/75.36W ...Brunswick County... Gasburg 4.0 in 1000 PM 02/20 36.57N/77.90W ...Chesterfield County... 3 S Meadowville 1.7 in 0739 PM 02/20 37.33N/77.33W ...City of Chesapeake County... 2 SSE Hickory 2.0 in 1230 AM 02/21 36.63N/76.21W ...City of Franklin County... Franklin 5.1 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.69N/76.94W ...City of Newport News... 1 ESE Oyster Point 1.0 in 0716 PM 02/20 37.10N/76.49W ...City of Norfolk... 2 SE Norview 0.4 in 0120 AM 02/21 36.87N/76.23W ...City of Petersburg... 1 W Petersburg 3.0 in 0817 PM 02/20 37.21N/77.41W ...City of Suffolk... Downtown Suffolk 4.0 in 0115 AM 02/21 36.72N/76.59W ...City of Virginia Beach... 2 WNW Princess Anne 2.0 in 1215 AM 02/21 36.77N/76.09W ...Gloucester County... 1 NNW Gloucester Point 3.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 37.28N/76.50W ...Greensville County... Purdy 4.0 in 1044 PM 02/20 36.82N/77.59W ...Henrico County... 1 W Fair Oaks 0.6 in 0815 PM 02/20 37.53N/77.34W Varina 0.5 in 0900 PM 02/20 37.45N/77.35W ...Isle of Wight County... Zuni 3.0 in 1100 PM 02/20 36.87N/76.82W Carrsville 3.0 in 0732 PM 02/20 36.71N/76.83W Windsor 2.5 in 1230 AM 02/21 36.81N/76.74W ...James City County... Lightfoot 3.4 in 0952 PM 02/20 37.34N/76.75W Toano 2.5 in 1000 PM 02/20 37.38N/76.80W ...Lunenburg County... 2 N Dundas 3.0 in 0925 PM 02/20 36.95N/78.03W ...Mathews County... Soles 3.5 in 1030 PM 02/20 37.49N/76.44W Mathews 2.0 in 1030 PM 02/20 37.44N/76.32W Gwynn 1.5 in 1009 PM 02/20 37.50N/76.29W ...Mecklenburg County... Bracey 2.3 in 0856 PM 02/20 36.60N/78.14W ...Prince George County... 2 SSE Fort Lee 2.0 in 0930 PM 02/20 37.21N/77.32W 2 SE Richard Bland College 2.0 in 0854 PM 02/20 37.15N/77.35W 1 W Prince George 2.0 in 0830 PM 02/20 37.22N/77.31W 4 NNW Barham 2.0 in 0706 PM 02/20 37.19N/77.15W ...Southampton County... Courtland 5.0 in 0245 AM 02/21 36.71N/77.06W 1 WNW Hunterdale 3.0 in 0731 PM 02/20 36.71N/76.98W ...Sussex County... 1 NW Wakefield 3.6 in 1029 PM 02/20 36.98N/77.00W ...York County... Yorktown 3.0 in 1210 AM 02/21 37.24N/76.51W Grafton 2.0 in 0838 PM 02/20 37.17N/76.47W &&

He referenced the snowfall departures map to Eric Snodgrass whose Twitter account is: https://twitter.com/snodgrss/status/1230295340005224448

Cooler than normal readings are likely tonight and tomorrow. During this time, a storm now bringing snow to parts of the Southeast and lower Middle Atlantic region will pass harmlessly to the south of the snow-starved New York Metro Area. Milder air will return this weekend. As a result, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. The cold will likely last 4-7 days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +4.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.339. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.859 from 1989. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 28, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm before starting cool near the end of the month. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.631 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.819. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 65% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

He has demonstrated that seasonal forecasts can be skillful. That says a lot.

Morning thoughts... At 6:10 am, rain was pushing from west to east into Georgia and eastern Tennessee. Atlanta, which has received more than 200% of its normal precipitation through yesterday was reporting light rain. Heavier rain was located over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. That precipitation will continue to advance eastward. The storm responsible for that precipitation will affect the Carolinas and southern Virginia later today into tomorrow morning. Snow and rain changing to accumulating snow will fall over parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely be focused on eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia where 3"-6" with locally higher amounts are likely. The latest HREF guidance suggests some amounts in the 6"-8" range are possible in this area. My final estimates are: Elizabeth City: 3"-6" Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-5" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less

Another short period of cold is overspreading the region. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. A snowfall will likely affect parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia tomorrow into Friday. Likely accumulations include: Greenville, NC: 3"-6"; Norfolk: 2"-4"; Raleigh: 2"-4"; and, Wilmington: 1" or less. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was -15.75 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.347. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.891 from 1989. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 27, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.815 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.883. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

It's possible that the climate data is incorrect. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=NC&foreign=false&stationID=313638&_target3=Next+>

My initial thinking right now is as follows: Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-4" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities:

The ECMWF has < 1” through 2/29 0z.

Early morning thoughts... 1. Occasionally, storms bring snow to the Southeast while avoiding the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during strong AO+ regimes in February. February 1989, which saw two storms impact the lower Middle Atlantic and Southeastern areas during the final week of the month is one example. 2. At a time when the AO is poised to challenge or break daily records set in 1989, a snowfall is becoming increasingly likely for parts of North Carolina tomorrow into Friday. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and perhaps Wilmington. The GFS, with its excessive snowfall amounts, is discounted on account of its noted cold bias. 3. The last time Greenville had a measurable snowfall was December 9, 2018 when 2.0" fell. The last time Greenville had measurable snow in February was February 25, 2015 when 1.6" was recorded. The February 24-25, 2015 storm dumped a total of 4.1" snow. 4. The last time Wilmington had a measurable snowfall was January 4, 2018 when 0.4" fell. The January 3-4, 2018 storm brought 3.8" snow. The last time Wilmington had measurable snow in February was February 24, 2015 when 0.3" was recorded. 5. No significant snowfalls appear likely through at least February 24 in such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Another short period of cold is now poised to move into the region this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 became the 14th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 13 prior cases was 9.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 54% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1920-21 with 18.6" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is also the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina during the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and Wilmington. The NAM and GFS have much higher amounts, but no EPS members currently support such amounts. Thus, for now, they appear unlikely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was -18.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.296 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 26, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.883 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.836. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 62% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Thanks for the kind words and commentary. Also, like you, I do not like the current pattern. It is greatly disappointing to see the absence of cold and snow and the growing likelihood that this will be among the least snowy winters (e.g., <10" at Central Park).

Morning thoughts... 1. Record warmth again prevails in parts of Europe. New records are most numerous in Finland and Russia. 2. Parts of North Carolina, especially eastern North Carolina, remain in line for accumulating snow in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Eastern North Carolina will likely see the highest amounts with an area of 1"-3" locally higher amounts according a model blend. About one-third of EPS members show 1" or more for Wilmington. 3. The implied probability of less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City continues to increase based on historic data for cases where New York City had received less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18. 4. February 2020 remains on track to finish among the 10 warmest such months in numerous locations in the Middle Atlantic region even as colder air could arrive near the end of the month.

On this I disagree. The scientific evidence is overwhelming. The papers are available. The skeptics have no credible alternative to explain ongoing warming. Any serious money manager with a long-term horizon would already be working to mitigate risks and pursue opportunities in areas exposed to climate change based on the science. They would not be giving consideration to things that, quite frankly, have not much more scientific credibility than astrology.

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS. Here's how things progressed in 1960: None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period. At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

Unseasonably mild air continues to cover the region. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 55°; Boston: 49°; Harrisburg: 53°; Islip: 50°; New York City: 51°; Newark: 53°; Philadelphia: 52°; and, Washington, DC: 56°. Another short period of cold is likely later this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina later in the week. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. Wilmington is currently in line for close an inch using a multi model blend. Earlier today, in part due to the powerful north Atlantic storm that has contributed to the very strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), widespread record warmth prevailed in Europe. Daily records included: Cervia, Italy: 64°; Innsbruck: 59°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 46°; Osijek, Croatia: 63°; Papa, Hungary: 61°; Roenne, Denmark: 46°; St. Petersburg: 45°; Stockholm: 46°; Vilnius: 50°; and, Warsaw: 59°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was -18.06 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.000 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 25, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 16, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.840 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.780. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Another climate scientist who is no longer giving perceived legitimacy to climate change deniers via debates: https://mobile.twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1228197739760013317

Only when you get really close.

The landscape at the New York Botanical Garden suggests that spring is rapidly gaining a foothold on account of the almost unrelenting mildness of winter 2019-2020, including today’s 50° day. Crocuses are now blooming in abundance. Japanese Apricot is breaking into blossom. Witch Hazel is in full bloom.