donsutherland1

There was no evidence of the fabled “March lion” today. After a cold start, temperatures rose into the lower 40s under bright sunshine and a cloudless sky.

March 13-15, 2018 would probably be a better case. March 2001 saw 3.5" in NYC. The March 2018 storm dumped 14.9" in Boston with just a trace in NYC and 0.3" in Newark.

During that month, the Long Island Sound became almost entirely frozen. A photo from Rye, NY (2/21/2015):

This might be useful for illustrating the magnitude of the GFS's cold bias. For comparison, you noted that the 6z GFS has a 3/1-17 mean temperature of 43.0 degrees for NYC. The multi-model blend I use in my sensitivity analyses shows 44.4 degrees for the same period.

During the second half of March, the EPO is much less a factor due to the shorter wave lengths. For example, during the March 16-31, 1981-2019 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 45.1°. During that period, the mean temperature for EPO cases < 0 was 45.0° and the average for those with an EPO of -1.000 or below was 44.7°.

Despite today's chill, New York City is on track to finish February with a mean temperature of 40.1°. That would tie 1954 for the 7th warmest February on record. 2020 was also the fourth year since 2010 where the monthly mean temperature was 40.0° or above and the 10th such year on record. February 2020 also saw near record to record low monthly snowfall in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Monthly snowfall totals through 4 pm included: Allentown: Trace (tied monthly record low) Boston: 0.5" (9th February case with < 1" snowfall and 3rd since 2010) Bridgeport: Trace (tied monthly record low) Islip: 0.0" (old record: Trace) New York City-Central Park: Trace (record: 0.0", 1998) New York City-JFK: Trace (tied monthly record low) New York City-LGA: Trace (tied monthly record low) Newark: Trace (tied monthly record low) Philadelphia: Trace (tied monthly record low) Providence: Trace (tied monthly record low) Starting tomorrow milder air will move into the region. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -16.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.557. The preliminary February average was +3.231. Only 1990 (+3.402) and 1989 (+3.279) had February averages of +3.000 or above. The preliminary winter average for the AO was +1.960. 82% days were positive, including 31% that had a figure of +3.000 or above. The exceptional strength of the polar vortex and AO+ highlighted the uncertain nature of linkage, if it exists at all, between a solar minimum and Arctic blocking. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 8, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.226. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely see temperatures run 3° to 5° above normal for March.

The 18z run has amnesia and doesn’t remember the snowstorm from the 12z run.

The 7th warmest February on record in New York City is concluding. Despite sunshine, the high temperature was 35°. Temperatures will fall well into the 20s tonight. Outside, the general warmth has produced even more blossoms at the New York Botanical Garden: Inside, the Garden’s 18th annual orchid show is underway:

I have not seen anything publicly posted toward that end. My guess from everything I have seen is that a sort of sunk cost fallacy applies. The decision to push ahead with the FV-3 core is irrevocable.

The 2/29/2020 12z GFS shows what would be a rare March snowstorm where Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia would pick up 8" or more snow. Since 1890, there have been just six such snowstorms. The composite 500 mb and temperature anomaly data for those cases illustrates that the solution shown on the 12z GFS is very unlikely to verify. In addition, the historic data based on cases when New York City had less than 6" seasonal snowfall and Philadelphia had less than 2" seasonal snowfall through the end of February argue strongly against such a scenario. None of those cases featured the kind of snowstorm shown on the GFS. In the end, the GFS scenario is likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV-3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.1 4.3 4.5 5.0 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 -1.1

Today saw temperatures remain in the lower 40s in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, as has been the case throughout January and February, this latest round of cold will be short-lived. After tomorrow, much milder air will move into the region early next week. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Winter 2019-2020 became the 10th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 28. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 7.1" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 78% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1958-59 with 13.0" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.02 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.872. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 7, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the first week of March. On February 27, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.239 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.375. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied near 100% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.1° tying February 2020 with February 1954 as the 7th warmest February on record. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Not in NYC. March 1990 had a mean temperature of 45.1°. March 2012 had a mean temperature of 50.9° (just below the 51.1° record from 1945).

I expect a warmer to much warmer than normal March (probably 3°-4° above normal overall) with below to much below normal snowfall. I don't think March will quite reach the extremes seen in such cases as 1945 or 2012. In terms of probabilities, my guess is that 2012-type warmth would have about a one-in-four chance this March (exceptionally high relative to climatology, but still not the most likely outcome).

Back on February 17, there was chatter that 1960 was an analog for the upcoming March. That's an example of the kind of extreme suggestions that periodically show up on Social Media despite a lack of evidence (the most common extreme idea remains calls for imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events). For illustrative purposes, I posted maps showing that the area of cold for the first half of February was much less expansive than it was during the same timeframe in 1960 and that there was an absence of a mechanism to deliver the cold air into the CONUS for an extended period. These were two enormous and highly visible "red flags" that argued against the kind of severe cold seen during March 1960 e.g., monthly average temperature of 33.3° in New York City where the coldest March since then was 1984 with a mean temperature of 36.7°. Nationwide, March 1960 was the 3rd coldest March on record in the contiguous United States with a mean temperature nearly 5.6° below the 1901-2000 average. February 1960 was also the 18th coldest February on record in the contiguous United States. In terms of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the February 16-29, 1960 average was -2.566. The preliminary February 16-28, 2020 average is +3.906. Put another way, had one asked, "What would it take to produce a March outcome similar to that in 1960?" one would have been hard-pressed to invoke such a comparison. With February nearing a conclusion, it's useful to examine and compare how the second half of February has fared relative to that in 1960. Spoiler alert: there's no meaningful similarity in terms of the development of widespread and severe cold.

Morning thoughts... 1. Despite low temperatures in the 20s this morning in much of the Middle Atlantic region, a warm and nearly completely snowless February is concluding. Through February 27, New York City had received a trace of snow and Philadelphia had received no snowfall. 2. February 2020 will rank as New York City's 7th warmest February on record and Philadelphia's 11th warmest on record. 3. February 2020 will be New York City's 9th February on record where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above. 7 (78%) of those years have occurred since 1990 and 4 (44%) have occurred since 2010. Records go back to 1869. 4. The raw February temperature averages for the forthcoming 1991-2020 base period will be as follows: New York City: 35.7° +0.4° from the current base period Philadelphia: 36.3° +0.6° from the current base period 5. The increase in the February mean temperature will be somewhat ahead of the increase in the global February temperature for those two cities. The global increase will be approximately +0.32°. 6. March will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region with widespread temperature anomalies of 2°-4° above normal.

Snow was falling this evening and the landscape was coated in a thick and thickening blanket of white. A blustery wind added to the chill. That's if one were in the lake effect areas off Lakes Erie and Ontario and parts of northern New England. Through 6 pm, more than 6.0" snow had fallen in Caribou, surpassing the daily record of 6.0" set in 2008. In addition, Caribou had surpassed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter. Back in the Middle Atlantic region, snowfall has been difficult to come by. The clock is now winding down on a February that has been defined by warmth and an near total absence of snowfall. Monthly snowfall totals through today include: Allentown: Trace; Baltimore: None; Bridgeport: Trace; Harrisburg: Trace; Islip: None; New York City-Central Park: Trace; New York City-JFK: None; New York City-LGA: None; Newark: Trace; Philadelphia: None; Washington, DC: Trace. Colder air has now returned to the region. However, as has been the case throughout January and February, this latest round of cold will likely be short-lived. Much milder air will move into the region early next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +15.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.969. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 6, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.379 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.734. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied near 100% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.1° tying February 2020 with February 1954 as the 7th warmest February on record. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Those are three month average anomalies. Broad-brushing or imposing such anomalies on a single month can lead one to incorrect conclusions. The risks of error are particularly high in a month like March when the wave lengths are changing (shortening). Here's how things worked out for the first and second half of March for NYC (1981-2019): March 1-15, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 40.2°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 43.0° or 2.8° warmer than the mean for the whole period March 16-31, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 45.1°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 46.3° or 1.2° warmer than the mean for the whole period I don't think it's any surprise that the EPS weeklies (and I expect the evolution to continue when the newest data becomes available later today) and CFSv2 have now moved aggressively toward a warm March outcome. One need only look back to late January/early February to see the perils of ignoring or discounting critical details. Discounting what appeared likely to be an exceptionally strong AO+ regime for February led to some forecasts calling for severe and sustained cold to develop. At last word, the severe cold that was touted over social media by some never materialized. Instead, cities such as Philadelphia, New York, and Boston are about to record among their 10 warmest February cases on record. The warm February was not unexpected. It was not unforeseeable. In tennis, it would be the equivalent of an unforced error. A similar situation now exists concerning March, though the changing wave lengths make the forecast more complex. Nevertheless, it's a higher confidence than usual one. IMO, pointing out such matters is useful for learning purposes. The general lesson is that one needs evidence that is reliable for drawing sound conclusions. While such an approach won't eliminate forecasting error, it can reduce the risk of error.

Phase 5 is not cold in March (one can't simply impose a three-month temperature anomaly onto a single month). Here's the 1981-2019 data for New York City: All dates: 42.7° All Phase 5 dates: 43.7° Phase 5 dates (amplitude 1.000 or above): 44.6° It's also warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Morning thoughts... 1. Prospects for a warmer to much warmer than normal March in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas have continued to increase. 2. The base case has long favored a warmer than normal March on account of such factors as the exceptionally strong polar vortex in February (which has a lingering influence on the March pattern), past strong AO+ regimes in February, and the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. 3. Modeling has evolved quite rapidly toward the warmer March idea (EPS weeklies and the CFSv2). Below is the evolution of the CFSv2 forecasts from February 19 through February 27 that illustrate this dramatic trend. 4. Evidence for an alternative cold scenario for March is almost non-existent. 5. March snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region remains on course to be below to much below normal.

On what basis? The CFSv2 moved away from the severe cold it had shown for March. The hemispheric pattern is not close to the 1960 pattern he had invoked previously. Typically, extremely strong polar vortices in February retain an influence on the pattern that lingers in March. The 2/26/2020 CFSv2 forecast for March:

Colder air will arrive in tomorrow with winds gusting past 40 mph. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 became the 11th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 7.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 70% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +16.04 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.550. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 5, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 25, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.850. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 98% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.2°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

The world is already more than half way to the 2°C goal and the warming has been occurring most recently at a rate of around 0.2°C per decade. That would mean the target would be reached or exceeded within five decades. The timing could be faster depending on the impact of amplifying feedbacks. Research into those feedbacks is continuing and there is some level of uncertainty. One feedback that would be potentially worrisome would be shortwave cloud feedback, which may have played a crucial role in the Eocene warming. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874 My referencing to the aging shrinking climate change denial movement was never intended to define all older people. It referred to a subset. My reference to examples of misogyny in the climate change denial movement referenced a paper and highlighted one example (Anthony Watts--the tweet has yet to be deleted). There has been an increase in such tactics in recent years. The increased profile of Greta Thunberg has brought it out into the open. Watts is far from the only actor engaging in such conduct, though he is one with a fairly large following.

I haven't seen anything from Wells Fargo regarding moving away from funding fossil fuels.

JPMorgan Chase has also moved to eliminate most coal-related financing/assistance and financing for new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic. https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/news/pr/jpmorgan-chase-expands-commitment-to-low-carbon-economy-and-clean-energy.htm The notion that business, markets, and more broadly the economy are incompatible with addressing climate change is inaccurate. Companies are beginning to make the move. This movement is still in its early stages, but it is beginning to gather momentum, as climate change poses risks to companies, markets, and economies.