donsutherland1

Milder air returned to the region. As a result, temperatures rose into the 40s in most of the region and 50s in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with the mercury reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Overall, the stage is now set for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -1.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.044. On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.428 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 51° Tomorrow and Friday will be vary warm days. It will also turn very windy later tomorrow into Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3°

Today saw the temperature bottom out at 16° in Central Park. New York City has now gone 1,111 consecutive days without a temperature below 10°. That is the second longest such streak on record. The record of 1,410 days was set from February 18, 1930 through December 28, 1933. That record could be surpassed on December 12th. As no single-digit readings are likely through the remainder of February and the last such occurrence during the March 1-December 12 period was December 12, 1988, it is likely that the record will fall. In addition, 4 of the 5 1,000-day streaks have occurred since 1990, with 3 occurring since 2000. Records go back to 1869. Milder air will pour into the region starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. Strong winds are also possible later Thursday into Friday. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. Cooler weather could develop afterward, but uncertainty concerning the timing of such a shift exists. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -16.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.452. On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.429 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.247 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.2° (2.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 36° Noticeably warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.2°; 15-Year: 44.0

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures remained in the middle and upper 20s across much of the region today. A stiff breeze added to the icy feel. Tomorrow will be another fair but unseasonably cold day. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -12.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.246. On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.203 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.1° (2.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 26° Newark: 27° Philadelphia: 31° After another cold day tomorrow, much warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 42.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 43.8°

On the heels of near record and record warmth, a storm brought a light to moderate snowfall to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. Accumulations included: Allentown: 5.1" Boston: 3.1" Bridgeport: 2.8" Hartford: 1.9" Islip: 2.0" New York City-Central Park: 1.6" New York City-JFK: 2.2" New York City-LGA: 2.3" Newark: 1.9" Philadelphia: 0.4" Providence: 2.8" In the wake of the snowfall, tomorrow and Tuesday will be fair but unseasonably cold. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day. That broke the February record of 4 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -0.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.609. On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.208 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.159 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

JFK’s normal snowfall through 2/13 is 16.7”.

JFK is up to 20.3” for winter 2021-22. JFK’s normal seasonal snowfall is 25.9” (1991-2020 baseline).

Snowfall totals so far: Islip: 2.0" New York City-JFK: 2.2" New York City-LGA: 2.3" New York City-NYC: 1.6" Newark: 1.9"

Short video from this morning.

Some photos from today’s snowfall:

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with light to perhaps moderate snow. A general 1”-3” with some locally higher amounts is likely. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 37° Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cold days. Warmer weather will develop afterward. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 42.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 43.6°

2/13 0z HREF:

Yes. 2018 saw the historic warmth on 2/21. There was also an early April snowstorm.

61 at JFK.

Ahead of a coming light snow event, temperatures soared to near record and record highs in parts of the region. Daily records included: Atlantic City: 64° (tied record set in 2018) Boston: 60° (old record: 58°, 1984 and 1999) Bridgeport: 60° (old record: 54°, 2009 and 2018) Hartford: 59° (old record: 54°, 1984 and 1999) Islip: 62° (old record: 55°, 1984) New Haven: 58° (old record: 55°, 2018) New York City-JFK: 61° (old record: 58°, 1966 and 2018) Portland, ME: 54° (old record: 51°, 1984) Providence: 63° (old record: 61°, 1999) Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 4th consecutive 80° day. That ties the February record, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016. In the wake of the passage of a strong cold front, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and sharply colder. A period of light snow is likely in parts of the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. A general 1"-3" of snow is likely across the region with some locally higher amounts. The second half of February will see a significant pattern change. Ridging will develop in the East. That pattern change will produce sustained above normal to occasionally much above normal readings after mid-month. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +4.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.381. On February 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The February 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.126 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

No. New Haven did not reach 60.

Ahead of tomorrow’s light snow event, daily record high temperatures have already been set at Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, and New York City-JFK.

HREF:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with periods of light snow. A general 1”-2” is likely with some locally higher amounts across central New Jersey and portions of Long Island. It will be much colder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 41.6° Newark: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.4°

ACY had 10.0” during 1975-76.

NYC's snowfall when ISP reported 30" or more: 1963-1964 44.7 1964-1965 24.4 1966-1967 51.5 1968-1969 30.2 1973-1974 23.5 1975-1976 17.3 1977-1978 50.7 1981-1982 24.6 1982-1983 27.2 1993-1994 53.4 1995-1996 75.6 2000-2001 35.0 2004-2005 41.0 2005-2006 40.0 2008-2009 27.6 2009-2010 51.4 2010-2011 61.9 2012-2013 26.1 2013-2014 57.4 2014-2015 50.3 2015-2016 32.8 2016-2017 30.2 2017-2018 40.9 2020-2021 38.6

1957-1958 44.7 1960-1961 54.7 1963-1964 44.7 1966-1967 51.5 1978-1979 29.4 1986-1987 23.1 1995-1996 75.6 2002-2003 49.3 2010-2011 61.9 2013-2014 57.4 2017-2018 40.9

Temperatures soared into the upper 50s and even lower 60s across the region today. The early spring fling will continue tomorrow, as temperatures again rise well into the 50s and perhaps lower 60s. The unseasonable warmth will be interrupted on Sunday. A strong cold front will result in sharply colder conditions for Sunday. This cold shot will be short-lived. However, while the cold air is in place, an offshore storm could bring a light snow to parts of the region on Sunday into Monday. There is consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February will likely experience a significant pattern change. Ridging will develop in the East. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal to occasionally much above normal readings after mid-month. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.307. On February 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.063 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.8° (1.9° above normal).