donsutherland1
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Latest ECMWF weekly forecast for February 27-March 6: a modest improvement from Monday’s run.
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Temperatures peaked today ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler air to the region later tomorrow through the weekend. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 70°. Many locations saw record warmth. Records included: Bangor: 52° (tied record set in 2006) Binghamton: 61° (old record: 58°, 1954) Boston: 62° (old record: 60°, 1882 and 1910) Bridgeport: 68° (old record: 57°, 1976, 1982, and 2015) ***New February Record*** Islip: 71° (old record: 59°, 1976 and 2018) ***New February Record*** New Haven: 68° (old record: 59°, 1954) ***New February Record*** New York City-JFK: 64° (old record: 61°, 1976) New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 1954) Portland: 57° (old record: 51°, 188, 1891, and 1981) Providence: 71° (old record: 60°, 1910) White Plains: 67° (old record: 66°, 1954) Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +12.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.410 today. On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.387 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.516 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).
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The old record of 68 was set on February 17, 1976 and tied on February 23, 2022.
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At 9 am, Islip had a reading of 61°. That breaks the daily record of 59°, which was set in 1976 and tied in 2018.
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It was 44° in 1984.
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The morning low at JFK was 43°, which was below the daily record.
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For reference:
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The clouds may roll in too soon for that to happen.
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Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 65° Cooler air will begin to arrive late tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3°
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 15th:
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I suspect that we'll still see some cold and snowy winters. However, they will become less frequent in the future.
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Under sparkling sunshine, the temperature soared to springlike levels. Newark saw the mercury reached 70°. Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. However, a shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +19.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.841 today. On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.519 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.346 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.4° (4.5° above normal).
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Yes. 1912-13: 11.4” December; 2.9” January-February.
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Winters with less than 1" snowfall in December and < 3" total in January-February: 1918-1919, 1931-1932, 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 1997-1998 2001-02 had a trace of snow in December and 3.5" in January-February (nothing afterward).
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Yes. That is very likely. The record is 40.6°, which was set in 1990.
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There’s a window of opportunity during 2/22-24. A lot can still change, but at least there’s some guidance with some snowfall. Let’s see where things stand at the end of the week.
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Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 65° Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.2°; 15-Year: 44.0°
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 14th. As per the guidance, things could change next week.
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Tomorrow will unseasonably warm. Readings will likely reach the lower and even middle 60s across the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a rare (for this winter) snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +15.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.259 today. On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.342 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).
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Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 55° Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 42.0° Newark: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 42.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 43.8°
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 13th:
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Yes, the NAM is the AO.
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I also am cautious given the sample size involved. However, even if one sees a big drop in the AO/NAO within 45 days, we’ll be in mid- to late-March. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.
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Yes, that’s true. With shortening wave lengths, a PNA- is no longer the problem it was earlier in the winter. Hopefully, the NAO can help suppress the SE ridge.
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Thank you for sharing this link. I will have a look at it.
