DopplerWx
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Everything posted by DopplerWx
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yikes, at 45 the snow line looks even farther north
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3k nam at hr 60.
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lol nam comes in and shows 0.00" for clt and 1-4" for many areas west. sounds about right. even rdu with only an inch before it washes away.
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i swear these clown maps are cancer. made to be shared on social media and are not based in reality in the SLIGHTEST.
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no, the kuchera snow map moved further northwest in the end. all the stock is on the initial precip being snow then it goes to a mix and rain pretty quickly.
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gonna be some upset people once that CC line sets up shop sat night nw of the model guidance and continues to move northward as the precip comes in.
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euro still shows the front end snow with the snow line down into upper sc. gives clt 4-5" or so before a changeover. very similar to 00z. euro has been the furthest south with that snow line vs the gfs/nam.
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kuchera snow map with 1-2" for clt. trace down to rock hill.
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gfs will really kick the chair out from under us here in a few.
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nearly all sleet per 12z nam.
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hr 60 on the 3k nam and the sounding isn't good for kclt. cold rain as precip pushes in. the initial thumping is looking less and less likely now.
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snow line nearly to the virginia border at hr 84.
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we knew this was coming, makes it a bit easier to accept. likely not going to see snow in clt at this juncture. sleet and rain it is.
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nam warmer again. tick. tick. tick.
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nam warmer than 06z. snow line well north.
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and that one had the snow line much farther south this far out than this one. even the day before it had the snow line down into upper sc.
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just go look through the soundings for clt and rdu over the past 3-4 runs and the trend will be evident. in our locations you just can't hang your hat on a razor thin snow sounding, because it hardly (if ever) works out for us.
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models will be consistently wrong if they don't have the warm nose modeled correctly. we have seen this time and time again.
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very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.
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nam already firing the warning shots showing minimal to no snow for clt and all rain and sleet at the onset. i know how this movie ends.
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soundings not as good for clt this run, flirting with sleet most of the storm. prob realistic.
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wow, good look here
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out to 81 and the snow line looks nearly indentical to the 18z euro.
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wow, snow line continues to shift south
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18z all snow (almost) for clt.
