Bubbler86

I also have that 7/25 date in my favor. It becomes less likely to hit 100 after that date and much less likely after Aug 8th (using MDT records as a guide). The long heat wave comment is more of a guess and seeing guidance not showing anything like that in to early August.

MY general view of looking at various runs, the last few days, is that whatever heat is in the center of the country will eventually move east but it is shunted and minimized a bit from extremes. I truly think our chances of hitting 100 are dwindling and really a long heat wave is starting to see less likely.

I still think you do not hit 97 this season. We are fully on the down swing now.

Yea, they will get those 3 players. I feel they are still BY FAR the gold favorite but this is certainly not America's best. Big Sleepy McGee.

So we can assume 0Z never happened. Hey did you see JaVale Mcgee is on the US Basketball Team now as one of the Covid replacements? They must be down to asking for people who have nothing else to do.

Several different lollipops of 2" through the center of the state yesterday.

@TimB84, GFS keeps making the weekend even more "pedestrian" temp wise. A Ho Hummer. AM weather on the 3 days leading up to it is glorious though. CMC not so much.

So the met's are thinking "done and done", it did not rain here"?

Nice 62 here...smoke covered sunrise.

The cells really seemed to jump a bit once down past the 11/15 area. At one point Western Lanco looked good and then, poof, they never saw anything and Cumberland county got it. Central and Eastern Lanco go their own random cell.

HRRR and 3K show storms popping up but making less progress into the LSV than yesterday. I think after Sunday we go back to daily rain chances....random winners. Some will get Canderson'd and some will not. Did you scoop some up?

Amazing sunset into the smoke. Like the sun was going through a filter. Pictures do not show it though so live viewing only.

It was like a white blanket of high level smoke today. I do remember some similar times over here but could not quote when.

Let's face it. Iowa State has vaulted over paw paw and pillow.

Yea, I was not asking anyone for an answer. Just a question for the air. Case in point, Ctp zones went from sunny to t-storms likely in an instant today so there is very little limit to how incredibly tedious of a task it would be. Now on Iowa State....I have seen examples their work before.

No doubt but was the forecast Sunny? LOL. When they do not forecast rain that does not mean they are saying 0 percent chance but probably < 20%. All the Meso's had rain showers moving through the LSV today. Even the GFS had rain. The Precip map for today, when done, is going to be a very large area of rain that has fallen. I am not bashing CTP vs. pointing out/questioning how rare of an event this is. To have hundreds of miles of a forecast area get over .5" of rain when the forecast was sunny.

Some areas west of Millersburg are over 3" and they might not be done. Probably no way at all to check when the last time an area had a forecast of Sunny and ended up with 3" of rain.

The Pillow cells are moving or reforming as much west as south at this point. Carlisle in sight now.

Flood Advisory National Weather Service State College PA 415 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 PAC041-043-099-192215- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.Y.0064.210719T2015Z-210719T2215Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Perry PA- 415 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The National Weather Service in State College has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Northeastern Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania... Western Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Harrisburg, Lower Allen, Camp Hill, New Cumberland, Enola, Lemoyne, Wormleysburg, Millersburg, Marysville, Shiremanstown, Duncannon, West Fairview, New Buffalo, Rockville, Liverpool, Halifax, Dauphin, Harrisburg Area Community College and City Island. Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inches is expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

A visual representation of CTP trying to keep up with the forecast changes this afternoon. Allow Gate to stand for Zone Change.

I see what you did there. LOL

Don't lose any sleep over it! Looks like Pillow may push Training's topic over the 100 level.

That one near you really should be warned. It is fairly large and could be some flash flooding in poor drainage areas.

Over here the smoke has made a huge difference at this point. It is solidly "overcast" and bordering on getting a bit dark. Going to end up the day below normal with a high of 82. You just got yourself an air quality alert. NWS also changed your zone to 60% chance of storms.

And there is another cluster of cells up near Pillow heading down 11/15. Those cells in Lock Haven have my name written on them if they can survive for 3 hours. LOL. I just had a friend in Camp Hill send me a picture of the NWS logo and his middle finger pointing at it. Monday softball is cancelled for him.