Bubbler86

I think it was quite quiet last year until August. I remember myself commenting that the forecasts may be wrong but then it took off in Aug and Sept.

I may be confusing events here vs. Florida but some events I remember had actual ash on the ground.

All I read was this...uh oh. Should I go turn on CNN for further instruction?

I stopped in the MA thread and saw several comments similar to yours. I have not noticed anything myself. With a front (albeit a weak one) passing tomrorow, I wonder if it gets a bit worse with the mixing down and then clears out after passage.

I hope not. The Big Fireman's Carnival is nigh. If rain ruins the festivities I could see the local folks getting ornery and a real Pillow fight could break out.

I think its pretty easy to know one area/poster that will see a trash can full of rain from pop up storms.

I think it is pretty telling that except for 1953, when it did it multiple times, its only reached 100 twice (1973 and 1983) after August 15th.

For October, MDT did hit 97 twice and 93 once in 1941 and 93 in 2019 otherwise it has never been close. Surprising MDT has never hit 100 after September 3rd. If you take away the great heat wave of September 1953, MDT has only hit 100 two days after August 15th so its very rare.

I also have that 7/25 date in my favor. It becomes less likely to hit 100 after that date and much less likely after Aug 8th (using MDT records as a guide). The long heat wave comment is more of a guess and seeing guidance not showing anything like that in to early August.

MY general view of looking at various runs, the last few days, is that whatever heat is in the center of the country will eventually move east but it is shunted and minimized a bit from extremes. I truly think our chances of hitting 100 are dwindling and really a long heat wave is starting to see less likely.

I still think you do not hit 97 this season. We are fully on the down swing now.

Yea, they will get those 3 players. I feel they are still BY FAR the gold favorite but this is certainly not America's best. Big Sleepy McGee.

So we can assume 0Z never happened. Hey did you see JaVale Mcgee is on the US Basketball Team now as one of the Covid replacements? They must be down to asking for people who have nothing else to do.

Several different lollipops of 2" through the center of the state yesterday.

@TimB84, GFS keeps making the weekend even more "pedestrian" temp wise. A Ho Hummer. AM weather on the 3 days leading up to it is glorious though. CMC not so much.

So the met's are thinking "done and done", it did not rain here"?

Nice 62 here...smoke covered sunrise.

The cells really seemed to jump a bit once down past the 11/15 area. At one point Western Lanco looked good and then, poof, they never saw anything and Cumberland county got it. Central and Eastern Lanco go their own random cell.

HRRR and 3K show storms popping up but making less progress into the LSV than yesterday. I think after Sunday we go back to daily rain chances....random winners. Some will get Canderson'd and some will not. Did you scoop some up?

Amazing sunset into the smoke. Like the sun was going through a filter. Pictures do not show it though so live viewing only.

It was like a white blanket of high level smoke today. I do remember some similar times over here but could not quote when.

Let's face it. Iowa State has vaulted over paw paw and pillow.

Yea, I was not asking anyone for an answer. Just a question for the air. Case in point, Ctp zones went from sunny to t-storms likely in an instant today so there is very little limit to how incredibly tedious of a task it would be. Now on Iowa State....I have seen examples their work before.

No doubt but was the forecast Sunny? LOL. When they do not forecast rain that does not mean they are saying 0 percent chance but probably < 20%. All the Meso's had rain showers moving through the LSV today. Even the GFS had rain. The Precip map for today, when done, is going to be a very large area of rain that has fallen. I am not bashing CTP vs. pointing out/questioning how rare of an event this is. To have hundreds of miles of a forecast area get over .5" of rain when the forecast was sunny.