Bubbler86

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And then there is the FV3 which drives the Primary into Western PA

I think you and I are now real long shots for anything substantial with this one.

Thermals much worse on the Nam 3K for any areas where it is "close". Mostly an I80 and North snow. Looks more like "King" Icon.

Nam 12

Here is the look...unfortunately I think much of the Western snow dries out as it moves East....to the point that it is fairly light.

That dry slot does much of us in though the tail/ccb is still behind us at the end and it still snowing over parts of central and western pa at this point...not sure that "CCB" provides much if the low continues to move east and not stall. Stil snowing East and North East of the LSV as well at this point.

Money shot for the HRRR. As the low continues east, more areas to the south and east change over to snow. Areas south of Harrisburg dry slot before there is much snow.

We did have one earlier this season. Jan 6th maybe?

MDT's low so far today has been 43 or 44 so they need to get down to 39 by midnight to avoid a tie or break the Max Min record for February 11th. 3K has them making it to 38 but HRRR and RGEM do not and suggest a record is made.

Another steamy Feb morning...48 degrees. Feels like summer to be honest.

How much for sayre?

He only has so much budget to pay the kid to draw it.

The WB and Pivotal maps are showing a fairly large difference on the latest Nam. 1-3" depending on location. That darkish red dot in N Central is 15" on Pivotal but not 16+.

The watch "AFD" itself suggests their reason for issue it but it also does not match his zone forecast. It does better match the zone for Nothern Dauphin. Just not sure they split counties for watches. The zone for southern Dauphin only has 2-4". PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-111415- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 246 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

For a watch I guess they could issue it for any reason....if he had a warning for 2-5" it would not be what I thought they usually do. I once read that they now use the midpoint of ranges to trigger the warning so I guess 4-6 could trigger it also. This is all Google info so maybe an NWS savvy met has exact thoughts.

I think they would usually not issue a Warning unless the first number is 5. So 5-7, 5-10, etc. It is a watch and not a warning so really just a heads up more than a forecast.

I suspect they do not want to split counties. The last I looked at the Harrisburg zone it said 2-5" which is not WSW worthy.

18Z GFS. WSW merited for much of PA on this map.

I would be super surprised to see us get 2-4" of rain period.... not surprised if we get little to no snow. The ground around here is more saturated than normal, despite the summer drought, so that much rain is a worry for streams. Saw several farm fields today with water puddled in low areas.

They had a choice of shady maple or snowy maple and went with shady because they at least get 4-5 months out of the name instead of a couple weeks.

Not at all saying this for controversy but the RGEM depiction would call for flood watches. 2-4" for much of the LSV (mostly rain)

Fill up for a long night waiting for the Euro. Have fun.

You had her drive so you could PBP 18Z models on your 13" iPad. Makes sense!

It probably hit 70 in some spots but just remembered when I was passing places. It is still 67 just west of me on WU. High in Rou was 64.