Bubbler86

The official report I see does say .2 with no snow since midnight last night/today.

NWS going below me. No surprise there Confidence is increasing in a period of accumulating snow across the south and east Sunday as a wave of low pressure develops along the thermal boundary along the North Carolina coastline. Given how broad the trough is, there is above normal uncertainty in the exact placement of the axis of heaviest snow, but as of right now model consensus is for 2-4 inches of snow accumulation across the southern tier and the Lower Susq Valley on Sunday. It should be noted, however, that the reasonable worst case scenario would be a sfc low developing faster and tracking closer to the Mid Atlantic coast, which could but us in a position where the Lower Susq sees warning criteria totals (5+ inches). For now, the chc of warning criteria snow totals remains just below 30%, and it is more likely that we would end up hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory in the coming days.

I usually get just to the left of the elevated total area. In fairness it was higher than I quoted when I said 2-3 as it was closer to the 4" line.

www.pivotalweather.com

Right, and I am close to that 4" line. I also think Kuch may be a tad high on the UK depict but not getting into that convo. The point was it was not the 6-10" of the models in the "higher camp". If forecasting just off the GFS, AI and Canadian the totals would need to be 6-10 I think.

6Z looked 3 to maybe 4" to me. I am to the left of the pink area.

I would be worried about big rgem level snows if we still have the majority of models showing it passing off or transferring off the SE Coast tomorrow AM. If I had to forecast for the LSV right now I would go with 3-6".

A lot of models show me getting 2-3", was just trying to catch up as in what is usually case, the models not showing snow are not posted as much. UK, Euro, Nam, Icon are all much lower than the others I quoted.

I edited it as I was looking at the 0Z.

Quick scan, we have the Chatgpt, Canadian, GFS showing 4"+ (editing to add GFS) and everything else is less?

I like this better than the rgem but is complicated.

Still 3-5 for lsv before the transfer.

@DDweatherman called it. Jersey Shore mauler. We are miller'ed.

Primary transfer between 63 and 66.

Riding up the front but not overly amped.

Gas has the low in central GA. A far cry from the m/d.

It would be good for the drought!

We shall see...and not trying to poo-poo, just disecting. It was close. I personally do not do well with a low that is already near the m/d moving most eastward. You are a little more shielded and north. If we had more cold before hand I would feel better.

Yea we can change back but we are starting with less than ideal conditions. I like the look for the ai euro better or a less amped rgem.

Icon with a major deamp of the 18z. Slow start like was mentioned.

Anything going just under us from the west is a big risk for all souther pa. We do well with a more Miller A type track. Low former too early for my liking in the rgem. I think I definitely change over with that verbatim.

993 over Jersey hammering much of eastern pa. May be wet for eagles.

Even closer call for pa southers. Low getting amped and riding close for comfort.

Rgem lining up with an early forming Vort as before. Sunday white out.

He passed Jagr for the most goalies scored against at 189. 2 SO's in row for Thompson.