NWS's take on dealing with the lack of many models efficiently handling good radiational cooling nights like the next 2.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Leatherstocking region of New
York state tonight with a ridge extending south into the CWA
will bring clear skies and light wind. This will result in
efficient radiational cooling tonight. Will continue to blend
lower percentile NBM temps for lows Tuesday morning (teens to
low 20s which are a few to several deg F below normal).
Recent history of nights similar to tonight, with high pressure overhead or to our north, suggests the temps will not fall as low as this but will be lower than all the other suites.
It is likely that MDT has hit their low temp for the season which would tie it for the second warmest low in their record keeping history. This is seasonal not yearly. 3 of the top 4 have happened in the last 5 years.
Rgem has you lined up for 17. So maybe 20?
Check out the Carlisle reports from last night/this AM. 7 to 1.8 or 2.5.
...Cumberland County...
Carlisle 7.0 in 0815 AM 02/17 Public
4 NNW Newville 6.1 in 0651 AM 02/17
1 NNE Enola 6.0 in 0735 AM 02/17 Public
4 NNW Newville 4.6 in 0657 AM 02/17 Public
Wertzville 4.5 in 0545 AM 02/17 Public
Carlisle 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/17 COOP
Mechanicsburg 4.0 in 0742 AM 02/17 Public
Camp Hill 3.0 in 0944 AM 02/17 Public
1 NW Shiremanstown 2.5 in 0722 AM 02/17 Public
Carlisle 2.5 in 0754 AM 02/17 Public
Mechanicsburg 1.0 NNW 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/17 COCORAHS
Carlisle 7.2 SSW 1.8 in 0800 AM 02/17 COCORAHS
All true just wish it was colder. I miss the snow then several days staying in the 20's events. Much of this snow is going to melt off today (down here) though the colder mesos are forecasting a throw another log on the fire mid-teens lows tomorrow AM.