Bubbler86

Intersecting stat, HGR never reached 0 during the cold string. PA was on the periphery of the coldest air. Some of that was snow cover too but more the depth of the cold air which lessened greatly south of PA. BWI snuck in a 6 for their lowest temp. IAD's lowest was 3.

I would prefer if that one was 100 miles south but looking at upper dynamics, that should still go East vs cut too much.

Bowling Ball and nice high

The irony is thick as the main driver for this is....the cold and the pattern that brought it. Low of -2 here but up to 6 now. Appears MDT did not make negative stopping at 0.

A thumb in the eye? LOL. Moe? Curly?

Pillow may be below 0 already. 4 at rou.

If that deep orange had extended to Florida and NC I would have assumed it meant where the most snow would fall this month.

Lots of school delays again tomorrow. I heard that the electric supplier for the 13 states near us set a winter record for output this AM. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/deep-freeze-propels-power-demand-135004710.html

Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that step one is the qpf. Even if they were rainers, they would help with the worsening drought. I know one poster here who is not looking forward to summer droughts brought on by winter droughts. We have had some nice cross country bowling ball snows in the past. They will not be ice box like this time but at least something to track.

Just to clarify, we could be tracking rain eventually but it is better than tracking how many snow records Florida has broken :-). I will quote Blizz, at least we are in the game/arena. LOL

UK with a tip of the hat to the Icon. Quite cold this time next week. A trough carves out over us and cold air dumps in from the N and NE.

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week. It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern. Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now.

Op Euro and GFS not far off on that potential cutter next week into the weekend. High position is better on GFS though which leads to LSV changeover.

The potential Sat AM lows are going to be a surprise to some as the highs will be moderating by that point but we have a 1035 High sitting over us ready to radiate. It would not surprise me if you see 0 to -5 Sat AM. Better ask DT to check on that!

Yea, I just think the issue is that SW menace. Were it not for help from the NE blocking, we would be torching with that thing raising heights and the WAR. I would like to roll it out of there even if it is a cut. I do think we lose quite a bit if it gets near 40 this weekend (snow)

Nooners. 8 and almost 100% sunny skies.

That Voyager Pig trough in the SW finally moves out days 8-10 on the GFS which leads to a cutter that snows and ices here as Cad holds on to our thermals (just barely). As discussed on the MA board, the Euro AI has an even better evolution of this a day or two earlier that is mostly snow here. Gem is warmer with all rain.

Haha. GFS still much more zonal so just a blip for now.

12Z Icon has a different 500H pattern than the GFS next week and a substantial "setback" in driving lows below 0 again for about 1/3 of the state next Wed AM with highs Wed near 20-25 for the LSV.

It has only gone up 6 degrees here this AM. At 3 right now. MDT has gone up 17 (at 9) and THV has gone up 25 degrees (also at 9.)

That would shatter/more than double the record.

Rgem has a sneak attack lows below zero panel Sat AM for the Eastern part of the state. Probably the Rgem overdoing it a bit but could be much colder than forecast as of now.

Today MDT went from -8 to 4 in an hour and 45 min. A raise of about 7 degrees per hour. This puts them up to the temps of other locales which did not radiationally cool as much last night. When an extreme cold spell is starting to loosen its grip on an area you are going to get some 30-40 diurnal's with super cooled lows bumping against SW induced warming during the day. If THV gets to their forecast high of 16 they will have a 32 spread today and if MDT gets below 0 tonight they could have a 30-40 spread tomorrow.

That is indeed a "take this off me" face.

If MDT does record a -8 for the low, here is where it will stand all time. Note 1960's tying temp was in Dec!