Bubbler86

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week. It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern. Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now.

Op Euro and GFS not far off on that potential cutter next week into the weekend. High position is better on GFS though which leads to LSV changeover.

The potential Sat AM lows are going to be a surprise to some as the highs will be moderating by that point but we have a 1035 High sitting over us ready to radiate. It would not surprise me if you see 0 to -5 Sat AM. Better ask DT to check on that!

Yea, I just think the issue is that SW menace. Were it not for help from the NE blocking, we would be torching with that thing raising heights and the WAR. I would like to roll it out of there even if it is a cut. I do think we lose quite a bit if it gets near 40 this weekend (snow)

Nooners. 8 and almost 100% sunny skies.

That Voyager Pig trough in the SW finally moves out days 8-10 on the GFS which leads to a cutter that snows and ices here as Cad holds on to our thermals (just barely). As discussed on the MA board, the Euro AI has an even better evolution of this a day or two earlier that is mostly snow here. Gem is warmer with all rain.

Haha. GFS still much more zonal so just a blip for now.

12Z Icon has a different 500H pattern than the GFS next week and a substantial "setback" in driving lows below 0 again for about 1/3 of the state next Wed AM with highs Wed near 20-25 for the LSV.

It has only gone up 6 degrees here this AM. At 3 right now. MDT has gone up 17 (at 9) and THV has gone up 25 degrees (also at 9.)

That would shatter/more than double the record.

Rgem has a sneak attack lows below zero panel Sat AM for the Eastern part of the state. Probably the Rgem overdoing it a bit but could be much colder than forecast as of now.

Today MDT went from -8 to 4 in an hour and 45 min. A raise of about 7 degrees per hour. This puts them up to the temps of other locales which did not radiationally cool as much last night. When an extreme cold spell is starting to loosen its grip on an area you are going to get some 30-40 diurnal's with super cooled lows bumping against SW induced warming during the day. If THV gets to their forecast high of 16 they will have a 32 spread today and if MDT gets below 0 tonight they could have a 30-40 spread tomorrow.

That is indeed a "take this off me" face.

If MDT does record a -8 for the low, here is where it will stand all time. Note 1960's tying temp was in Dec!

All time record. Here are the lowest max min's starting at that record down to this year as of now. I thought I remembered a Christmas Day where it stayed near 0 but guess my memory is off.

MDT Max Mins and Mins below. For Max, looks like Jan 2014 had a colder day and 2018 and 2009 were within 1 degree. Feb 2015 had a colder day as well. Min wise this looks the coldest since 1994 as you suggested. Max Mins Mins

Horst: https://www.ydr.com/story/news/2018/01/25/york-airport-records-far-colder-temperatures-than-rest-area-heres-why/1058953001/#:~:text=It's surrounded by farmland and,that traps the cold air."

-3 for the low here.

Since evaporation is slowed during cold weather/less sun, drought can sometimes improve in the winter even if precip is not above normal. But we better get some wet periods before the heat of late spring hits or we will fall off a cliff as to drought numbers.

Hoping a Florida location can top 4" giving 2025 the new 24 hour record.

Still in double digits at 10 here. 8 higher than last night at this time. Should drop fast if clouds move out.

That is a beefy clipper on the 18Z GFS; 983 millibars. Some Cat 1 Hurricanes are in this neighborhood.

Most people who watch TV news are going to see snow on the ground and not want to hear about drought. That is my take anyway. If we get a Hecs sometime between 2/14 and 2/20, I will certainly bring up this post again as props!

I would be perfectly happy with highs in the 20's and lows in the teens to maintain the snow pack fairly well vs. the current extremes but if someone told me we have had wall-to-wall winter so far, I would not argue. It may be asking too much for a third month in a row having BN departures. Has not translated into a over abundance of snow but cold has won for what is quickly closing in on the 2/3 mark of met winter. MDT is sporting a -3.4 departure for Jan right now which will go down even more the next 2-3 days. Will take quite the Feb torch to have Met Winter end up AN at this point.

I took it as his warminista self coming out and saying set backs to a quicker moderated regime.