Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I did notice that the Rgem has high temps getting a little AN Wed before the front is pushed south again for the weekend...so maybe some warmer winds one day.
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High of 38 here today. Down to 35 now. I think MDT came in at 47 which was 1 over where I thought they might get.
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GFS Kuch Snow for Friday night into Saturday. Still on an island compared to EC and Canadian as neither brings the coastal far enough north due to keeping the streams separate....EC does have some snow from the NS system in the Northern 1/5 of PA. GFS has teens for many Sun Am but nowhere near the record of 13 set in 1896. Still a long shot but after yesterdays runs, surprised to have something even slightly legit to track.
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We have seen several times where the heat island extends well outside the actual cities themselves. Not sure of the actual cause but it keeps happening. Here is Wunderground and it shows most of the temps that are high are near major roadways, not 100% but a lot of them...maybe that has some influence too. Being within a few miles of one of the Interstates. Wild guess. Lot's of low 40's in Lanco.
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I was thinking MDT would be 42-43 now and top out 45-46. The CAA is still pressing in from what I can see. Maybe they top out a degree or two over. Either that or the concrete jungle is getting harder and harder to forecast for.
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Have a meeting at noon...EB Nooners, 37 with a fairly steady wind around 20ish gusting to 35-40. Gust wind chill is a "chilly" 22-24 degrees. MDT a degree or two higher than I thought they would be at this point.
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<eyeroll.emoji> is an effective way to bypass this boards limitations. <Insert Signature Here>
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As @Atomixwx keeps saying, you cannot count the stats until Late March has passed.
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We ended up with more than a half dozen gusts over 40 here.
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Down to 28.
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On the Euro, a Mid-West/Mountain West Low breaks the whole chance as the coastal never rides up toward us.
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It is a Miller like situation so transfer can take place at a better spot and a faster transfer could bring the cold air in faster with less SW influence. Not likely but do not see much else outside hardy cold....precip timing is not working. The transfer happens in time for N PA but we are left with cold chasing precip down here.
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Still think this is our last chance in March. GFS does have a few warmer days, after a few hard freezes, again end of March.
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30 this AM.
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I think the Spring Fling is over for us but have a hard time seeing snow at this point. Several hard freezes coming up though.
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That sounds like a better forecast than CTP calling for low 50's. LOL. Now tomorrow, if MDT gets above 45-46 I will be surprised.
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Yea, I was saying that CTP's forecast was not good if they thought the high today was going to be 52. Heck, it was 47 this AM when I got up! The post above was direct at Ruin not you though :-).
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The front on Friday was an occluded front that had clouds and some slightly cooler air but not a true cold front. It was always supposed to be in the upper 50's and 60's this weekend (always as in the last few days.) If the NWS was calling for low 50's, take it up with them for their inability to forecast. Here is the GFS from Wed for today. Sure, it got 5-8 degrees higher, but it was not supposed to be BN this weekend. The Icon was closer to reality. Again, this is the model from 5 days ago.
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That is crazy talk. It was always going to be 55-60 today (at least). Crazy talk on their part. I have the weed wacker out taking out the onions.
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HRRR had much of the LSV getting too near 60 this afternoon....freezing tonight and low 40's tomorrow.
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It has snuck up to 55 here. If it were not so windy it would be pretty nice...we have sustained 15-20 and gusts mostly 35-40 but a couple over 40.
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Not sure how much BN (some) but less AN coming for a lot of the second half of March on the MR models. After today, every high temp on the zones for the next week is BN though. Normal for this time next week is mid 50's.
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It is 51 and gusty winds here today and this may be one of the warmer days for quite some time. Most people out and about are wearing coats. To me, if it is windy, it has to be over 60 to even consider shorts unless working out. Not many 60's in our future on MR models.
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Shorts may be away until April.
