Bubbler86

I was focused on the LSV. 10-1 is higher in the LSV (on Pivotal). I see out your way Kuch is higher. 10-1 has Harrisburg at 3 and Kuch is 2.7.

It had that band of snow getting into the top 4/5 of PA before far southern PA saw any and it was indeed much more widespread than 12Z Nam.

Not as good as one would expect with all that deep, digital blue. Did 10-1 since it will be cold enough IMO. 10-1 is higher than Kuch. Both are close to the same though.

Wagons North on the 18Z Nam

Also, possibly over reliance in MJO forecasts? The one I just looked at was not suggesting Phase 8 to the level that it was before. and possibly skipping 2.

I finally got a chance to look.... quick de-escalation.

I more meant the location of the precip shield at 12Z not differences in snow. WB has the precip shield over central PA while Pivotal has it leaving PA at the same time.

Did you see the large difference in the WB hour 72hr map and the Pivotal one? The heights are similar but the precip is not at all. Pretty strange unless I am missing something (which is VERY possible). Only thing I could conclude is that Pivotal; is showing as of 12Z and WB is showing an average location of precip during that 6 hour period vs. the location at the time stamp.

On pivotal the falling snow is gone before sunrise as well...a plus for a Sat IMO. Strange difference in your maps.

Euro fairly similar for end results...a bit higher near the M/D line.

And it is like 1/10th of an inch for those areas. LOL

A windy, cold 36 at noon.

Lollipops of over 3" in the LSV. Icon took a slight step back with intensity of the snow but still decent. Well more than slight for northern LSV.

The rgem surprisingly came north with the vort though it too basically loses it. But, yea the Friday night vort has sped up some and the whole moisture profile changed in 12-24 hours.

Plus, some of it is what is being verified. I suspect PSU is talking LR patterns and the model's ability to slowly adjust changes through runs vs. jumping from one extreme to another. But I meant what I said about the EC yesterday. It was dethroned long ago for my purposes of shorter ranger forecasting. I ignored it all summer because it was rarely correct for ground truth weather.

Up to the Icon to save the Icon storm.

Roll out the rgem on good radiational cooling nights.

Nam12 really minoring out the Friday night chance for areas to our west...disappointing. Hope it is an off run. It may amp up a bit as it gets closer to our area.

@Coop_Mason what the? Bottom half of your own county. ...Adams County... 2 WNW Lake Meade 7.0 in 0814 AM 02/13 Public 3 NNW York Springs 6.0 in 0800 AM 02/13 Public Biglerville 3.0 WSW 5.3 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS Biglerville 5.2 in 0745 AM 02/13 COOP 1 N Carroll Valley 5.0 in 1030 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Cashtown 4.8 in 0847 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Abbottstown 2.0 N 4.0 in 0800 AM 02/13 COCORAHS 1 SW Mcsherrystown 3.7 in 0930 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter

Model verification for MDT's 7.7" of snow on the normal Global and Meso models at 48 and 24 hours out from 12Z Yesterday (Sun and Mon 12Z Runs). Cannot see the HRRR's on Pivotal at that point. Numbers are rounded and pivotal keeps switching from 10:1 or Kuch so tried to double check. EC and UK are 10:1. Sun 12Z GFS-6" Nam12K-3" UK-3" EC-2" Fv3-1" Rgem-1" Nam 3k-1" GEM-1" ICON-0 Mon 12Z Nam 3k-6" GFS-5" Nam12K-5" Fv3-4" GEM-3" UK-3" ICON-2" EC-2" Rgem-1"

That system has the potential to give him snow...he should be all over it. Short Pump Jack.

LR Modeling keeps the MA LR thread in business. They should put Google Ad's on there to monetize it.

This year could be one to remember for having normal or better snow despite being one of the warmest winters ever. I am not going into the CC convo, just stating the facts in a vacuum of where we stand this year with 2 weeks left in Met winter. I see nothing on the GFS to give any hope of putting a serious dent in the current AN departure for the month.

As we get to the mid-point of a typical Feb (apologies to Leap year this year), MDT has had no BN days the entire month. If today's ends up AN, probable with a low of only 32 so far, it will be the only February in the 2000's that this has happened. I did not look back to see when the last time it happened past the year 2000. MDT has reached the 40's or higher every day this month. Also, PennLive was wrong. MDT did record 7.7" yesterday.

29 here this Am. Nice agreement among the GFS, Nam, Rgem and Icon this Am with the Friday night system. Euro and UK Outliers showing it sliding through the Carolina's. I like the timing right now with snow Friday night and not losing Saturday for doing stuff.