Bubbler86

Remembering below is not day to day weather, it is climate/UL stuff. From June 2024. Discussion: To evaluate AI forecasts, some preliminary verification results are recently available. The verification presented is for climate signal forecasts for the 6-10-day period from the past 30 days (Fig. 1). Evaluated is the mean average error (MAE) for North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America (PNA) index, East Pacific oscillation (EPO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). The MAE for each climate signal is combined for 5 operational models and 5 AI processes. Final skill scores are reasonably close. The Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS) ranked no. 1 overall followed closely by the Canadian Ensemble (CMC ENS) and Global Forecast System (GFS). The Forecast Net GFS ranked last in this comparison. While AIFS ranked No. 1, operational models ranked 2 through 4. Clearly, based on this sampling, AIFS is “competitive”. Combining all 10 models and their forecasts of NAO, PNA, WPO, and EPO for the 6-10-day period from the past 30 days, most skillful was the PNA forecast while least skillful was the NAO forecast (Fig. 2). Implied are the upper air forecasts across western North America is best, easter North America worst, and middle of the road results in-between as identified by WPO and EPO.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system Data driven instead of old fashioned physics.

So camp wise I think we have Rgem, FV3, GFS and AI....UK is sort of a middler but leaning toward Camp 2....then Icon, Euro, Nam on the progressive side. Nam is the driest of all of them as we discussed but the progression and areas that get decent snow are similar. All in the first camp (somewhat guessing on AI) show precip totals of .5-1" over areas of the LSV (rgem even over 1" in some places). Second camp is more .2 to .4 levels.

The low progresses off the coast faster and does not throw the same level of prcip back west.

I was looking at the low position. It scooted off the coast faster.

Euro a bit more progressive than 0Z in the end. Totals will not be rgem or GFS like.

EC looks somewhat similar to 0Z through 48. VERY slight less cold push.

It is trending to de-amp a bit and move a little souther the last 3 runs. Nothing set in stone like you mentioned. I cannot do a trend gif with my no $$$ subscription.

So you are going to choose to keep your finger nail? If will grow back.

This is UKIE Kuch from 24 hours ago.

Here is the 10:1 noting the cut off I mentioned.

UK a little light on the snow outside South and SE. I do not have Kuch though. Definitely not in the Canadian Camp.

One of those "Florida gets this cold" things. Haha. Those 8-10" totals in far NW Florida are one in a life time totals for Florida.

Snow + on the edge of the Panhandle of Florida. This one could be fun to watch while we freeze. Would easily break the snowfall record for Florida which I think is 4".

When I do that, I spend WAYYYYY too much time arguing with people who read the zone forecasts and think it is the only answer. The zones are probably the last place to look for up to date info.

Nice feather in your cap with the GFS basically "verbatiming" your comment from shortly before.

Just talking hypotheticals and a prog map, if that 10" line gravitates over toward Philly there is going to have to be some consideration of the City telling people to not Drive re: the Eagles game.

It is much better for us than the Canadian especially southers. Much less warm intrusion.

It does Transfer but not before it gives us the business. Goes from Southern VA to off the NJ coast in 3 hours,

It is going to spank southern PA again it appears. NWS will probably have to raise the WSW's this afternoon.

GFS up to break the split. Does it stay with the amped Miller A like run from 6Z or a transfer like 0Z.

What is really honing in is the Eagles game is going to be wet or snowy. Very little room for it to be dry at this point. Nothing is exact this far out but may be a game of weather.

Sounds like a good plan for now. The fill blended model (NBM) in unimpressive to say the least but think/hope it beefs up with more qpf on shorter term mesos as they get in range.