Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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NWS is somewhat poo-pooey for Sunday but do mention plumes. Will probably up their game if 12Z runs show any kind of consistency on a threat. Precipitation should taper off Sat night as the front exits the area. However, some model guidance forms a wave of low pressure along the slowing front. If this were to occur, a second period of snow/rain is possible over Southern PA Sunday. The 12Z EPS plumes only support POPS in the 30pct range over Southern PA.
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15 this AM. Cold first half of winter.
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The Euro is bouncing around so much I am having trouble keeping track of whose side it is on. Back to a snowy solution at 6Z where it was not at 0Z. Map from AM.
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Icon comes NW a bit with the wave and has some waa level snows for the lsv sun
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There is probably a cold front coming Sat. The front tomorrow is a bit of a wash IMO. Temps not that much different but definitely not colder air whether polar or artic.
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There is a warm front coming through tomorrow which is simply a front based tail end of a vort passing by. The vort has a cold or occluded/stationary front also attached to it in Southern Canada. We are not getting a cold front at all tomorrow. We will actually have Warm Air Advection tomorrow as the front approaches. See this surface map:
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Ninja'ed. Nobody beats the Blizz.
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A lot of our larger snows come second half of met winter (and March but just keeping it to Met winter for this post.) On the info I posted earlier it shows the normal met winter snow at MDT by Jan 14th is only 7.8". The norm is almost double at 15.1" for the second half of met winter from Jan 15th-end of Feb.
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Summarily cast off the model that has bad news, risk it being right. History every winter here. (Not directed at anyone, especially you...more a commentary of what seems to happen often.)
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Ruin.... the group HH good luck charm??
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Almost the whole country is high.
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And Dubois.
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18Z GFS the wave again does not begin to intensify at all until off the FLA East coast and it heads NE from there. VA Beach gets some light snow showers.
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I would certainly be very surprised if the GFS pivots too much to the positive for us. If the book closed on this chance today, it was one of the first to sniff out the trailing wave being forced south and east of original projections (it was too extreme to that point though.) Also, the book does not close today.
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Thanks for noticing the Caps are tied for most points in the league! Oh you mean the Icon. Mostly Fredericksburg and south.
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Icon opens 18Z with another miss and the trailing wave is much too late to help us.
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I think this is a potentially exciting/alarming time from Texas East to S VA including Ala, NC, SC, much of GA and even the Florida panhandle. There is definitely a precedent for us to get skunked due to the PV, to be determined, but that system 7 days from now is a high potential one for the South... as you alluded to.
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The are not so Jarry anymore.
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Definitely the trend at 12Z. Outside the Gem outlier, the wave did not have enough room to form in time for it to be a consequential system for us. But, it is such a convoluted situation, we are just watching models for fun at this point. So many things can change in the next 72 hours.
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In contrast to the Gem, the UK has a much weaker and later starting wave that misses some of the LSV for Sunday. The Gem is mostly on its own right now pending the EC.
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Despite almost full sun, a brutal 21 with a Windchill of 4 for nooners.
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27 -28% drop. A big difference from the 8-9% raise in usage.
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Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro. GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though. People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours.
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I predict a WB Kuch map before the day is out...that shows closer to a 10". LOL. The one big difference I see between the GFS and CMC is the vort is on the 90 hour map where the GFS has a well defined 996 slp off the VA coast while the CMC just has an weak wave at the same time. This allows the trailing piece of energy to form much faster and father west on the CMC due to spacing.
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10:1
