Bubbler86

Nam at 84. Not going to guess on outcome but it is faster than I was expecting so think it is leaning more toward the CMC especially with the slp only at 1001.

Check out my name. LOL. I live in the Waynesboro District now. Feet away from Washington County MD district. I was at my friend's house last weekend, their son is a soph wrestling at 121 for Boiling Springs, and it is a bit of a mixed thing for me as the son could not even sit down with us and eat a meal for risk of gaining weight. That bothers me a bit.

Yes, my bad. My Bubblers were already knocked into the consolation unfortunately.

It is wrestling time in Hershey :-)

There are not enough wagons "direction" references. Was just thinking that this AM. LOL that one finally showed. (A good thing.)

Right now, I am just along for the ride. I do not think any op model shows snow at Rou. Not on the panel shots at least.

If we get a slp in the 990's then we are still in the game. I am not as worried about it being south vs. it being weak...weak is not going to overcome the temps being near 40 at midnight on the 13th.

The low opens up much earlier on the CMC vs. the "higher moving" solutions like the GFS. I think we still want that slower solution allowing it to climb more. It really never closes on the CMC. Will be an interesting set of runs at 12Z.

37 here this AM breaking a long below freezing streak. MDT snuck down to 33 but breaks theirs as the second longest in a year. The RRFS, RGEM and HRRR all show the high temp record tying or falling at MDT today. Nam does not.

The lack of cold air in place makes this whole ordeal a fail with a weak storm that does not do enough to create its own atmosphere by helping pull down cold air. That solution has been on the table from the beginning, IMO. The Canadian never goes sub-1000 until well to our east and fails to converge on one of the 2 or 3 areas of lowest pressure as it moves by to our south. Unfortunately, I think we need a Primary to get up our SW and transfer to make this one work. Give us the best of both worlds with a mechanism for cold air on the back side of a stronger low. Even then, it is rain here on the GFS. Snow for much of the LSV though.

They added that to pivotal about a month or two ago from what I remember. I get mocked for putting up the Icon so did not want any extra back lash but thanks for bringing them up.

After the 12Z runs yesterday, I feel it is pretty encouraging (amazing maybe) that we are still talking about snow on the 12th or 13th.

Great illustration of the "L" location question on the TT depiction of the rgem. Quite humorous. If you assume the front lowest point on that map, it is not that different from the GFS.

The differences between the 12Z and 18Z Rgem are indeed quite significant. Leery of too much put into where the model places the "L" but definitely a fluid situation to have it that much slower.

Model PBP is all above the enjoyment of finding the differences which lead to the changes.

Not going to extrapolate too much and I think the GFS had more than one lowest point of pressure for quite some time leading up to the storm on the 12th (on the 12Z run) but the 18Z Nam low position is pretty far north at 84. It did slow down a bit from its 12Z run though.

Buckle up, pal.

That was my goal in finding out re: the first comment. The timelines/time period was important to understand what it really means if true.

Thanks, I have seen that one from ncep but was curious who was ranking the Icon ahead of the GFS. That is a pretty big claim but maybe right if data backs it. I think I saw the same post from PSU which piqued my interest.

I saw that mention on the MA that the Icon is now ranked higher than the GFS in some type of verification? Does anyone have a link to that...or at least some info including timelines?

Carry that US (GFS) Flag proudly, Mitch....it is probably all we have right now. Been busy but did not notice anything else.

Now do the other models fold? So far, none have....

We got Tim Hardaway for you if you want to really have a shot fest. Ball stays in his hands less than 5 seconds usually.